Trump trump towerIn social media and mainstream media, I often hear Donald Trump quoted (by himself, and others) as an extremely successful, self-made man. As an entrepreneur for nearly all of my life, hailing from a working class family - with a strong bent for numbers and analysis, I questioned this. 


Nearly a year ago, I warned subscribers of consequences stemming from the ECB's negative interest rate program. Here's an exceprt from our resarch report titled  pdf European Banking Macro Issues for March 2016 (843 KB) .


In its March 2016 report The Bank for International Settlements warns of “great uncertainty” if rates stay negative for a prolonged period.  The report also states the likelihood of a currency war of competitive devaluations if more central banks use negative rates to pace up their economy.

Europes central bank launched a large scale program for asset buying referred as Expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) in March 2015 six years after the U.S. embarked on quantitative easing. The APP included the purchase programme for public sector securities to the existing private sector asset purchase program. 

The EAPP consists of

  • third covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3)
  • asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP)
  • public sector purchase programme (PSPP)

ECB started buying Covered bonds and asset-backed securities through two separate programs namely ABSPP and CBPP3 programmes which were started in October 2014 and November 2014, respectively, amid declining inflation and growth.  However, growth had not rebounded with inflation drifting downwards through the end of 2014 and into early 2015. This prompted the ECB to launch a major asset purchase program referred as public sector purchase programme (PSPP) through which the Central Bank would buy euro-denominated, investment-grade securities issued by Euro area governments and European institutions. ECB aimed to purchase €60 billion of assets through these three programs combined together.

In March 2016, ECB announced the addition of corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) to APP in order to purchase euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations established in the euro area.

EU bind buying plans

I hate to be the one to break bad news to you, but most of the pop media/mainstream media financial pundits that I hear and see opine on bitcoin have absolutely no idea what the hell they are talking about.  This article will be the piece that strips the pretense of knowledge away from all of those other "smart guy" media types.

thumb Bitcoin sharpe ratio today

So, the stock market, bond market and real estate markets are all at all-time highs. Everything is Awesome! You know better than that. You see, when the bond market wakes up (that has happened already, btw), the resultant higher rates will drag the rest of Wonderland back into reality. Where do you think those steadily increasing EPS counts have been coming from? The cheapest credit every simply tempts management to do some of the dumbest things every....

thumb Bonds fuel stock buybacks4