So, the next domino falls in the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis. As has been the casse for much of the Asset Securitization Crisis and the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the ratings agencies have arrived to smoldering pile of ashes littered with charred bones and remnants of the putrid smell of burnt flesh with a fire hose and a megaphone yelling "Get out! We have word there may be a fire here!"

From Bloomberg: Ireland Debt Rating Cut to Junk, Adding Pressure for EU to Contain Crisis:

Ireland joined Portugal and Greece as the third euro-area nation to have its credit rating reduced to below investment grade as European Union finance ministers struggle to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Moody’s Investors Service cut Ireland to Ba1 from Baa3, citing the probability that the country, which received a bailout last year, will need additional official financing and for investors to share in losses before it can return to the private market to borrow. The outlook remains “negative,” Moody’s said in a statement late yesterday.

Irish bonds dropped for a sixth day today after the downgrade, which came after European finance ministers failed to present a solution to the contagion that’s threatening to spread to Italy from the so-called peripheral euro-area states. Ireland’s debt agency said the downgrade will make it “more difficult” for Ireland to return to the market next year.

While Ireland “has shown a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and has, to date, delivered on” the terms of its bailout, “implementation risks remain significant,” Moody’s said in the statement.

Irish 10-year bonds fell, pushing the yield on the debt up 31 basis points to 13.65 percent. The premium over German bunds widened 32 basis points to almost 11 percent. Italian yields were at 5.47 percent after surging above 6 percent earlier this week. The euro, which dropped to a four-month low against the dollar yesterday, rose 0.5 percent to $1.4049 as of 9:06 a.m. in London.

Debt Markets

Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan had said he hoped to be able to sell debt again next year. That may now be less likely, according to the country’s debt agency.

“The action by Moody’s will make it more difficult for Ireland to access the market next year, that is certainly the case,” Oliver Whelan, head of funding at the National Treasury Management Agency in Dublin, said on RTE radio today. “Ireland does deserve a higher than junk status from the agencies.”

Ireland, which had a top Aaa rating just over two years ago, has suffered after a real-estate boom collapsed, fueling bank bailouts and a surge in the country’s debt.

As he tries to regain the confidence of investors, Noonan said this month that he may seek a bigger budget correction than the 3.6 billion euros ($5.1 billion) planned for 2012 to ensure deficit targets are met. In Spain, Finance Minister Elena Salgado said yesterday the nation might need to endure even deeper spending cuts next year than currently planned.

‘Evolving Approach’

The NTMA said in a statement that “the situation in the euro area is evolving rapidly” and noted that Moody’s cited the decision was “primarily driven by their concern about the prospect of private investor participation in future financial support programs in the euro area.”

European finance ministers have discussed a plan to roll over Greek debt with the participation of private bondholders. Ratings companies had said that could be a “selective default,” something that the European Central Bank opposes.

“In the end, these kind of discussions and the evolving approach just reflect uncertainties that weigh on the creditworthiness of countries that are dependent currently on support,” Dietmar Hornung, a senior credit officer with Moody’s in Frankfurt, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We also decided to keep the negative outlook just to reflect the implementation risk, but also to reflect the shifting tone among EU governments toward the conditions under which support to a distressed euro-area sovereign will be made.”

Irish Bailout

Ireland was forced to seek an 85 billion-euro rescue from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in November as a banking crisis overwhelmed the government.

The European Commission in Brussels said the downgrade “contrasts very much” with recent economic data and the “determined implementation of the program by the Irish government.” The Irish program is “fully on track,” it said.

Moody’s rationale for cutting Ireland echoed its review of Portugal, which was lowered to junk on July 5. European leaders may hold an extraordinary summit in two days in another attempt to stem the debt crisis, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny said separately yesterday.

Standard & Poor’s cut Ireland’s rating one level to BBB+ with a “stable” outlook on April 1. Fitch Ratings affirmed Ireland’s BBB+ rating on April 14 and removed it from “rating watch negative.” It said the outlook is negative. Both firms’ ratings are three levels above junk.

Ireland’s debt will rise to 118 percent of GDP in 2012 from 25 percent at the end of 2007, the European Commission has forecast. Taxpayers have pledged as much as 70 billion euros to shore up the country’s debt-laden financial system.

“Things need to get worse before they get better,” said Steven Lear, deputy chief investment officer at J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Global Fixed Income Group in New York, who helps oversee $130 billion in assets. “There has to be a lot of pain before the alternative of pain seems palatable.” 

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Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I am definitively outside the box - not your typical or stereotypical Wall Street investor. I work out of my home, not a Manhattan office. I build my own technology and perform my own research - in lieu of buying it or following the crowd. I create and follow my own macro strategies and am by definition, a contrarian to the nth degree. You can consider me the individual investor of the new millenium.

Since I use my research as a tool for my own investing to actually put food on my table, I can stand behind it as doing what it is supposed too - educate, illustrate and elucidate. I do not make my living from selling advice, I make my living from acting upon my own advice, I am not a reporter hence do not sell stories. I am not a broker/bank, hence I do not have to hawk my services. I am an entrepreneur who exists just outside of main

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I find most research lacking, in both quality and quantity. Thus, the reason why I had to create my own research staff of high caliber analysts and forensic accountants was due to my dissatisfaction with what was currently available - to both individuals and institutions. 

So here I am, creating my own research for my own investment activity. What really sets my actions apart is that I offer much of what I produce to the public at highly subsidized prices or free of charge. Why would I do such a thing when others easily charge 5 and 6 digits annually for what some may consider a lesser product? It is akin to open source analysis! My ideas and implementations are actually improved and fine tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - no matter how smart those few may believe themselves to be.

Very recently, I have started charging for the forensics portion of my work, which has freed up the resources to develop the site to deliver even more research for free, particularly on the global macro and opinion front. This move has allowed me to serve an more diverse constituency, which now includes the institutional consumer (ie., investment turned commercial banks, hedge funds, pensions, etc,) as well as the newbie individual investor who is just getting started - basically the two polar opposites of the investing spectrum. I am proud to announce major banks as paying clients, and brand new investors who take my book recommendations and opinions on true wealth and success to heart.

So, this is how I use my background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation and financial analysis to pursue, analyze and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities.

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• Banks (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citibank)
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  • 75% of the BoomBustBloggers are executives and professionals
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Praise from our readers/subscribers

• wanted to say hello and thank you for all the work thats done here. i know nothing, basically about investments, markets, stratagy etc. i'm a working a playwright-actor-director. thats my line. therein lies my cash supply. ive not traded on your advise as yet, i do indeed think that may change over time. i stuck my 550 in the pot and the langauge of the martkets i'm taking in from you is eyepopping. the curve is breaking down quickly and i thank you and your team.

• From KC Dallas – “For those ignorant to assume the style of ones writing is an indication of their investment knowledge is, well, ignorant. Those that chose to bash Reggie Middleton should check out his work. It is some of the most in-depth analysis you will find! 

While the pundits were telling everyone the worst was over and to buy, buy, buy (that includes Mr. Bove) Reggie's analysis told you how sick the financial companies were. If the pundits took the time to do their job and actually report the truth, they would have told you exactly what Reggie had been stating since 2007.Pundits have a job and that's to help Wall Street take your money.

I highly recommend those who decided to bash on Reggie to take a look at his site and his data. You WILL NOT be disappointed. You'll get the truth backed up by factual data. Look over some of the data Reggie put out there on MS, LEH, GS, and WFC.

When the pundits started reporting on earnings reports that were stretched truths, you would have already known exactly what amounts of Hide the Level 3 assets these firms had.If you want to see a difference in your accounts, check out his work. Yes, I am biased. Why? Because I've been checking out his site for months and I've been very well educated by his information as well as benefiting financially. Reggie... Thanks for an awesome year!!!! Looking forward to 2009 with you.”

• From Prescient – “For those who don't know Reggie he's the best around, GGP is his crown jewel. He also called HIG and the other insurers and the downfall of the IBs. His analysis is the best. I shouldn't have closed my short on GGP in the $20s, and you shouldn't have closed it in the teens,wow! Congrats on all the success man, you've earned it.

• From Smarty Pants “Nice summary of the Keynesian viewpoint of the economy. As your chart of US consumer credit shows, the US economy has been running on borrowed money for some time. The past four years of "growth" have been paid for by borrowing nearly $500 Billion to spend…….. That said, Mr. Middleton has presented an extensive and useful body of economic evidence that, for those who fantasize about a return to 2005, there really is more to fear than fear itself.”

• From Mike – “Hello Reggie:I am a new subscriber. Great research reports from what I am reading this far. Question: is there a summary listing of companies that you have covered or looking at from an investment point of view? There is a lot of content here and want to get caught up and focus on where the opportunities are. I do not want to overlook any potential investment opportunities. Great write up on HIG (The Hartford). I am actually an employee of the company, so it was a very insightful read. Stock rebounded after Friday's "investor day" but I think troubles still loom..particulary is the commercial mortgage market continue to get hit. Thanks Mike

• From Shaunsnoll -  “you've been KILLING it lately!! is this the longest streak you've ever been on?  because its the longest streak of anyone i personally know for sure.  looking forward to the emerging market stuff Reggie!
  

• Reggie has been consistently bearish on the financial stocks for many months. I, for, one, am appreciative of his insights and articles, and have made a lot of money following many of his short recommendations. I would have done even better if I had followed them more aggressively!

  See what else my readers have been saying in our Praise section .