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Tuesday, 09 October 2012 14:27

Right On Time, My Prediction Of Apple Margin Compression 8 Quarters From My CNBC Warning Landed Right On The Money!

To begin with, brand new Apple valuation and forensic research is now available to all subscribers. I suggest you jump on it now while it's hot...

 apple product chart growth copyapple product chart growth copy

Well, it looks as if my Apple ruminations and research have come to Fruition - and rather accurately at that. Since Apple has such a cult following, I will set the facts straight right here in a nifty little timeline as Apple tumbles in real time. This is to correct those who are comprehension challenged in saying that I've been crying to short Apple for 400 points. To begin with, I run a subscription site, I generally don't give away actionable advice for free, I charge for it. I have warned about Apple's macro and business conditions - yes, but whether to go long or short on the stock,I only opined in public once. Read below to see how that turned out. My next post will start revealing some of my actual subscription materials in order to make public the accuracy and prescience therein. Is it time for 1000s and 1000s of rose colored #iPhone sporting #iSheep and #fanbois to issue kudos to the BoomBust???

Spring 2010 - I declare the mobile computing wars are on and Google looks to be the front runner (light years ahead of the sell side)...

The Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars!

  1. There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All
  2. The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
  3. An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
  4. Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet

In October of 2010, I warned that Apple would face margin compression and make a short candidate. I DIDN'T say it should be short at that time, but I did say within 4 to 8 quarters competitive realities would catch up with it...

October 2011

So, what happened exactly 4 quarters later? Oh yeah, Apple misses on margins, the stock drops -  Reggie Middleton Wasn't the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the .. This was the only time where I publicly stated I would short Apple. Announce contrarian short candidate - company misses and the stock dropped, right on the 4 to 8 quarter schedule! Sounds pretty good to me. Go to 2:20 in the video for a clear description of the margin compression illustrated below...

In the mean time, here are some updated margin charts to support what was said in the video and the extant Apple research for subscribers to review.

iBubbleiBubbleiBubble

Yes, Apple is the vast majority of the desktop computer equity market capitalization!

Apple revenues as a smartphone companyApple revenues as a smartphone companyApple revenues as a smartphone company

Apple has, in just a few short years, morphed from a computer computer to a smartphone and tablet company, which essentially are just new age computers anyway. It's just that no one sees Motorola, RIMM or Nokia that way!

ipad marginsipad marginsipad margins

iphone marginsiphone marginsiphone margins

As the key revenue drivers see there margins compress (and I told you so two years ago), entity level margins will drop as well:

Which Is The More Sustainable Business Model - Selling The World's Information or Selling Shiny New Things???

Apple Margin chartApple Margin chart

Google is a true threat to Apple that simply cannot be ignored. Here I explained that threat im explicit, easy to follow detail...
 
Of course, I put my money where my mouth was and publicly declared Google to be a superior investment to Apple on CNBC's stock draft. To date, I'm currently in the lead as Google drastically outdistances Apple...  Reggie Middleton currently leading the CNBC Stock Draft Pick ...
Now, exactly 8 quarters after my 4 to 8 quarter premonition, does everybody want to get short Apple and long Google??????

October 2012: Everyone jumps on the BoomBustBlog bandwagon...

 goog vs aaplgoog vs aapl

Below is my latest on Apple, showing whether I believe this is the time to short and what I think Apple is really worth. I feel I have been on the forefront of the Apple issue AND have been rather accurate as well.

Click here to subscribe. After subscribing, I wish all newcomers to download the very simply and quick Apple margin model below to put your most optimistic assumptions in to see how they may look in terms of product sales.

  • File Icon Apple 4Q2012 update professional & institutional
    (Technology)
  • File Icon Apple 4Q2012 update - retail
    (Technology)
  • File Icon "iPhone Margin worksheet - blog download
    (Technology)

 

Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. 

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

file iconGoogle Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012
file iconGoogle Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011
file iconGoogle Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

file iconGoogle Final Report 10/08/2010

file iconAn Analysis and Valuation of Google's Android and AdMob 09/27/2010 

file iconGoogle Valuation Model 09/21/2010 
 file iconGoogle's VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010
file iconGoogle Cloud Based Services
file iconGoogle TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives...

  1. Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android  
  2. Did A Blog Best Wall Street's Best of the Best In Guaging The True Value of Google? We Have To Think More Like An Entrepreneur & Less Like A Wall Street Analyst


There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Published in BoomBustBlog
Read more...
Monday, 08 October 2012 12:59

Apple Weakness Now Apparent To Others Besides BoomBustBloggers

Now that the weakness in Apple is apparent to all, and not just BoomBustBlog subscribers.... AAPL priced relative to the SPY... looking for this 4 year trend to break for the aapl story to be over as a market out-performer.

AAPL relative weekly rising wedgeAAPL relative weekly rising wedge

My next post on this topic will answer the obvious quetion, "Is it now time to short Apple?" - as I release the content from or updated Apple model. This will be some very, very good stuff and well worth the subscription rate.

Unique, Indpendent and Accurate Apple Research

file iconApple 2Q2012 results analysisTooltip04/26/2012
file iconApple Margin & Valuation NoteTooltip03/15/2012
file iconApple Margin Strategem WIPTooltip02/13/2012
file iconApple - Competition and Cost StructureTooltip05/16/2011
file iconApple Earnings Guidance AnalysisTooltip08/12/2010

file iconApple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis ModelTooltip08/03/2010

file iconApple business model noteTooltip

File Icon Apple Margin & Valuation Note

 

 

 

 

 

 

Published in BoomBustBlog
Read more...
Wednesday, 03 October 2012 13:21

Lauren Lyster & I See The iBubble Go iPop Once Those 10 Million MBS Trader Jobs Fail To Materialize As Bernanke Promised

Here is one of the best examples of financial reporting that I have seen on TV. As a matter of fact, the interviewees on the street gave far more credible input than the highly paid, so-called "experts" on those MSM outlets. 

The justification behind the Fed's employment chicanery was covered in detail here - EXXXACTLY As Claimed On The World's 1st Financial REALity TV Show, Bernanke Bailed Out The Banks Through A Public LIE To His Fellow Countrymen

The Apple evidence is upcoming in an updated forensic valuation report for subscribers within 48 hours. May I  subscribers to remember how accurate the last couple of reports were in regards to Apple and the current share price and product launches (patting myself on the back as I once again go unabashedly against mainstream through :-))

In the mean time, here are some updated margin charts to support what was said in the video and the extant Apple research for subscribers to review.

iBubbleiBubble

Yes, Apple is the vast majority of the desktop computer equity market capitalization!

Apple revenues as a smartphone companyApple revenues as a smartphone company

Apple has, in just a few short years, morphed from a computer computer to a smartphone and tablet company, which essentially are just new age computers anyway. It's just that no one sees Motorola, RIMM or Nokia that way!

ipad marginsipad margins

iphone marginsiphone margins

As the key revenue drivers see there margins compress (and I told you so two years ago), entity level margins will drop as well:

Which Is The More Sustainable Business Model - Selling The World's Information or Selling Shiny New Things???

Apple Margin chartApple Margin chartApple Margin chart

As you can see in the chart above, the margins on the iPhone are soon to be under pressure. I have included a simple model to allow my professional/insitutional subscribers to plug their own numbers in and decide for themselves - see File Icon "iPhone Margin worksheet - blog download (click here to subscribe/upgrade). Between the iPhone and the iPad, we're talking about 82% of Apple's profits! Think about this.

iphone 5 weekend salesiphone 5 weekend sales

As excerpted from Apple Bias In The Media Has Simply Gone Too Far, Potentially Hoodwinking Investors Into Believing Apple Has Not Reached Its Zenith:

TechCrunch reports: iPhone 5 Sells Over 5M In Opening Weekend, Limited Only By Device Supply

Apple broke records again opening weekend, with the iPhone 5 selling more than 5M in its first three days, compared to 4M for the iPhone 4S.

Wait a minute! Apple's share price was spiking due to speculation that the iPhone 5 debut may double or more the sales of the iPhone 4S, remember? Let's take a gander at some of the bullshit that came out of the press.

  1. Analyst Estimates On iPhone 5 Launch Weekend SalesRange From 3M-10M TechCrunch‎ - 5 days ago Analysts have begun making their predictions about the iPhone 5's odds of success for launch weekend sales, and in fact there's quite a range ...
  2. Blockbuster iPhone 5 launch expected to push Apple stock to $850 Apple Insider‎ - 3 days ago
  3. iPhone 5 Crushes Sales Forecast In First Weekend - Forbes – Apple (AAPL) announced today that pre-orders for the new iPhone 5 have now exceeded supplies, forcing some phones to be shipped in ...

I will launch an updated valution report within 48 hours, in the meantime here is the latest published research on Apple, which has been quite prescient thus far...

Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

file iconApple 2Q2012 results analysisTooltip04/26/2012
file iconApple Margin & Valuation NoteTooltip03/15/2012
file iconApple Margin Strategem WIPTooltip02/13/2012
file iconApple - Competition and Cost StructureTooltip05/16/2011
file iconApple Earnings Guidance AnalysisTooltip08/12/2010

file iconApple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis ModelTooltip08/03/2010

file iconApple business model noteTooltip

File Icon Apple Margin & Valuation Note

Published in BoomBustBlog
Read more...
Monday, 01 October 2012 14:47

iBubble, iPop - Apple Is Now More Than 97% Of The Personal Computing Market Capitalization! If That's Not A Warning Sign, You Can't Read!!!!

Did you know that Google can slash 10% off of the market value of the entire US Computing Industry? That's right, simply by executing on their Android strategy they can decimate personal computing's investment value. How, you may ask? Well, they already chopped roughly 5% off, when they and their OEM partners pushed out tech that Apple just couldn't compete with, leaving many iPhone buyers wondering why they should upgrade to the iPhone 4.5S, eloquently known as the iPhone 5. This resulted in a shortfall of 20% below the mean analyst estimates and 50% below the high - in terms of expected iPhone 5 sales. Apple slid for several days, hence the entire personal computing sector slid a lot for 3 days. Of course, nobody else in that industry had a problem besides Apple, but what the hell does it matter since - from the market's perspective - Apple IS the personal computing industry!

iBubbleiBubble

Reference my previous articles on the topic as we prepare a Q3 refresh of our Apple model and opinion - once released, should be a doozy of contrarin fact and analysis! In the mean time...

Which Is The More Sustainable Business M…

Which Is The More Sustainable Business Model - Selling The World's Information or Selling Shiny New Things???Which Is The More Sustainable Business Model - Selling The World's Information or Selling Shiny New Things???

As you can see in the chart above, the margins on the iPhone are soon to be under pressure. I have included a simple model to allow my professional/insitutional subscribers to plug their own numbers in and decide for themselves - see  "iPhone Margin worksheet - blog download (click here to subscribe/upgrade). Between the iPhone and the iPad, we're talking about 82%...

Apple Bias In The Media Has Simply Gone …

TechCrunch reports: iPhone 5 Sells Over 5M In Opening Weekend, Limited Only By Device Supply Apple broke records again opening weekend, with the iPhone 5 selling more than 5M in its first three days, compared to 4M for the iPhone 4S. Wait a minute! Apple's share price was spiking due to speculation that the iPhone 5 debut may double or more the sales of the...

The Truly Unbiased iPhone 5 Review & Sam…

The Truly Unbiased iPhone 5 Review & Samsung Galaxy ComparisonThe Truly Unbiased iPhone 5 Review & Samsung Galaxy Comparison

 I picked up an iPhone 5 to put it through its paces and found a few more RDF (reality distortion field)-powered myths to bust along the way. Now, this is a financial blog, not a tech blog, but I do analyze a lot of tech and there's a lot of non-sense out there in the tech blogs that culminate into...

Now You Will See Margin Compression In i…

As reported by ZDnet, "The total hardware inside a new 16GB iPhone 5 is estimated to cost $199, and the report adds another $8 manufacturing costs, bringing the total to $207. Contrast this to the off contract price of $649 that Apple charges for the handset and you can see how Apple keeps the dollars rolling in." iSuppli's analyst is quoted: "With the...

Published in BoomBustBlog
Read more...
Friday, 28 September 2012 00:00

Which Is The More Sustainable Business Model - Selling The World's Information or Selling Shiny New Things???

Apple Margin chartApple Margin chart

As you can see in the chart above, the margins on the iPhone are soon to be under pressure. I have included a simple model to allow my professional/insitutional subscribers to plug their own numbers in and decide for themselves - see File Icon "iPhone Margin worksheet - blog download (click here to subscribe/upgrade). Between the iPhone and the iPad, we're talking about 82% of Apple's profits! Think about this.

In the first quarter I lamented on the drop in both margin and market share of the iPad, see Apple's iPad Is Losing Market Share And Profit Margin As Apple Hits All Time High. I included plenty of pretty pictures to get the point across...

image061image061

Prices are dropping…

image031image031

Costs are increasing…

image042image042

ipad_costsipad_costs

So what does all of this add up to? Margins dropping!!!

image051image051

Now we have other publications catching on as well. as can be read on the Business Insider site. In 2011, I made clear that the days of the fat margined tablet are numbered, see Steve Jobs Calls End Of the PC, We Call The End Of The Fat Margin Tablet – Including The Pretty iPad, With Proof!  That was over a year and a half ago. Check out this headline from a few months ago... There's Been A Huge Drop In The Average Selling Price of Tablets... - Business Insider

The average selling price (ASP) of tablets keeps falling. The ASP fell 17 percent from 2010—when it was pretty much just the iPad—to 2011. Through the first six months of this year alone, the ASP has fallen another 17 percent. The drop is driven partly by the introduction of $200 mini tablets like the Kindle Fire, but also a fall in price of the dominant large-screen devices. As we discussed earlier this week, the ASP of iPad's has fallen significantly from a year ago. 

Tablet ASPTablet ASP


BI also chimed in (a year later) on the iPad margin thingy, albeit about a year and a half after BoomBustBlog broke the story...
 The iPad's Average Selling Price Continues to - Business Insider -Aug 14, 2012 – The Average Selling Price (ASP) of Apple's iPad has fallen more than $100 in the past year. The iPhone's ASP, on the other hand, has been remarkably stable since the beginning of 2009, despite Apple's introduction of lower-cost options. The disparity probably reflects the relative maturity of the smartphone market versus the tablet market, where Apple is starting to shed its near-total dominance.

chart of the day, the ipad's average selling price, august 2012chart of the day, the ipad's average selling price, august 2012

Well, now its the iPhones turn, and this was foretold at least a year and a half in advance as well... 

  • How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue
  • Sliced Apple Margins For Dinner?

What many fail to understand is that what Google as released with its reincarnation of Android is not a new mobile OS, or a flexible handheld technology, but an innovative business model that harnesses open source software for a path to profitability and turn the suppliers and vendors of fat margined leaders against it - literally ingenious and very, very difficult to counter without compressing your own margins. Those interested in reading more can reference Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android. So, let's get started by reviewing portions of my hypothesis from last year... enter the Google Cost Shift

Did Apple miss in 4 to 8 quarters after my first warning? Yes, as a matter of fact, they missed exactly 4 quarters later. The Only, and I Mean the Only, Investment/Research House To Warn Of An Apple Miss Is Vindicated!!!  As a matter of fact, Apple missed twice in that 12 month period - telling since it hasn't missed since 2004!!!

This October will mark the 8 quarter period that I gave publicly since the original CNBC interview for Apple to start feeing the heat from Android competiton. It's looking pretty good thus far...

Reggie Middleton on CNBC's Squawk on the Street - 10/19/2010

">http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/{/iframe}

Mr. Middleton discusses JP Morgan, bank risk and technology and is the only pundit in the financial media that we know of that called Apple's margin compression issues and did so successfully just hours before they reported! Clickhere or click below to see the video.

Follow me:

  • Follow us on Blogger
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
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Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. 

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

file iconGoogle Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012
file iconGoogle Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011
file iconGoogle Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

file iconGoogle Final Report 10/08/2010

file iconAn Analysis and Valuation of Google's Android and AdMob 09/27/2010 

file iconGoogle Valuation Model 09/21/2010 
 file iconGoogle's VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010
file iconGoogle Cloud Based Services
file iconGoogle TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives...

  1. Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android  
  2. Did A Blog Best Wall Street's Best of the Best In Guaging The True Value of Google? We Have To Think More Like An Entrepreneur & Less Like A Wall Street Analyst


There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Unique, Indpendent and Accurate Apple Research

file iconApple 2Q2012 results analysisTooltip04/26/2012
file iconApple Margin & Valuation NoteTooltip03/15/2012
file iconApple Margin Strategem WIPTooltip02/13/2012
file iconApple - Competition and Cost StructureTooltip05/16/2011
file iconApple Earnings Guidance AnalysisTooltip08/12/2010

file iconApple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis ModelTooltip08/03/2010

file iconApple business model noteTooltip

File Icon Apple Margin & Valuation Note

 

Published in BoomBustBlog
Read more...
Monday, 24 September 2012 13:06

Apple Bias In The Media Has Simply Gone Too Far, Potentially Hoodwinking Investors Into Believing Apple Has Not Reached Its Zenith

TechCrunch reports: iPhone 5 Sells Over 5M In Opening Weekend, Limited Only By Device Supply

Apple broke records again opening weekend, with the iPhone 5 selling more than 5M in its first three days, compared to 4M for the iPhone 4S.

Wait a minute! Apple's share price was spiking due to speculation that the iPhone 5 debut may double or more the sales of the iPhone 4S, remember? Let's take a gander at some of the bullshit that came out of the press.

  1. Analyst Estimates On iPhone 5 Launch Weekend SalesRange From 3M-10M TechCrunch‎ - 5 days ago Analysts have begun making their predictions about the iPhone 5's odds of success for launch weekend sales, and in fact there's quite a range ...
  2. Blockbuster iPhone 5 launch expected to push Apple stock to $850 Apple Insider‎ - 3 days ago
  3. iPhone 5 Crushes Sales Forecast In First Weekend - Forbes – Apple (AAPL) announced today that pre-orders for the new iPhone 5 have now exceeded supplies, forcing some phones to be shipped in ...
  4. Surge in iPhone 5 sales forecast - FT.com Sep 13, 2012 – Apple's rapid international rollout of the new iPhone 5 has prompted many analysts to upgrade their sales forecasts for the smartphone, with ...
  5. Some analysts increase iPhone 5 sales predictions - CBS News Sep 13, 2012 – (CNET) Some analysts expect the iPhone 5 to be so popular that they've recalculated their iPhone sales estimates for September despite a lack ...
  6. Holiday iPhone sales projected to reach 46.5M as pundits ... – Holiday iPhone sales projected to reach 46.5M as pundits 'underestimate' Apple. By Neil Hughes. Tech pundits who find the iPhone 5 "boring" ...
  7. iPhone 5 Sales Projections: 10 Million Units to be Sold Following ... – The iPhone 5 has high expectations upon its release, not just for Apple customers, but the effect it could have for the US economy. Apple began ...
  8. iPhone 5 sales to hit 170 million over next year, predicts analyst ...cnet.com/.../iphone-5-sales-to-h.. And based on past sales, the iPhone 5 will capture around 85 percent of ... Schiller explained the company's ... 

From Business Insider:

Apple sold the iPhone 5 in 9 countries over its opening weekend. It sold the iPhone 4S in 7. It actually sold fewer iPhones per country this year than the last. That's not just deceleration, that's shrinkage:

iPhone Sales per countryiPhone Sales per country

Decelerating growth is not good for a company like Apple, which despite a modest P/E ratio, has one of the most generous trailing 12 month revenue multiples of any hardware company on the public markets.

 As I explained in detail on the Max Keiser show, Google will be a very difficult company for Apple to successfully compete with. The problem is that practically no one seems to understand what kind of company Google is, and hence why Apple will have a nigh impossible time competing....

This thesis has come into its own with Apple's new iOS6 operating system and its exclusion of Google Maps for its inclusion of its own in-house mapping system. The end result? #FAIL, ##disasater!!!

Hacker reportedly ports Google Maps to iOS 6 CNET‎ 

iPhone 5 Problems: Apple Tries to Steal Google Maps Staff to Fix Its iOS 6 Maps Mess PolicyMic‎

iOS 6 Maps problem, maybe Apple should have called it beta ... www.phonesreview.co.uk/...

Wrong turn: Apple's buggy iOS 6 maps lead to widespread - The Verge Apple has a maps problem. The major new feature of the company's new ...

Apple Mapocalypse Sends iOS 6 Users Into a Tizzy, Riverbank - Wired

Apple On iOS 6 Maps Flubs: This Is Hard, Okay?

Apple statement apologises for iOS 6 Maps problems | Electricpig

 

This is what happens when a handset manufacturer attempts to take on the world's largest data company. Now to be fair, Apple had very liitle choice in the matter since its relationship with Google and its OEMs have gotten global litigation level bad, but still this is an area where Apple is sorely outclassed and it will never hav a chance to catch up while maintaining those uber-fat margins that the hedge fund hotel crowd has grown to relay on.
This guy Ben Parr over at Cnet was the only one in the Apple adoring press that seems to have gotten it right, read on...
 
Mapping is a core function of any smartphone. Every person who has a smartphone has a need for maps. If Apple removed Maps from iOS completely, customers would start switching to other smartphones. It's just that important.

So if you're Tim Cook, you have two choices. You can either A) let your enemy Google continue to power your default Maps application, or B) you can build your own Maps app and kick Google to the curb.

This is the decision that Tim Cook and his team faced when they decided to jettison Google Maps as the default mapping application for iOS. Instead, Apple decided to build its own Maps application, powered partly by data from TomTom.

As many of you know by now, Apple Maps has been under fire since its release. The complaints are numerous: Maps doesn't come with transit directions, mislabels cities and other landmarks, forgets rivers and thinks farms are airports. There's even a popular Tumblr dedicated to the mistakes iOS 6 Maps makes.

iOS 6 Maps, while a beautifully-designed application, clearly wasn't ready for prime time. This shouldn't come as a surprise: Google Maps is more than seven years old, and Google employsmore than 7,000 people on it, including the thousands of drivers who make Street View possible. Apple, on the other hand, is frantically hiring engineers to fix the gaping holes users have uncovered in Maps.

Let's go back to the original question: did Apple make the right decision with Maps? It's easy to say in hindsight that Apple should have stuck with Google or waited another year to release its own Maps app. However, consider the factors that Apple had to deal with:

  • Allowing Google to control a key piece of iOS was unacceptable. If Apple had no alternative to Google Maps, the search giant could have made high demands that Apple would have had to accept. Having no default Maps application is unthinkable for a major smartphone.
  • The longer Apple took to release its own Maps app, the more entrenched Google Maps would be.
  • The only way to test a new map application at a large scale it to release it to users. They will be able to find holes quicker than a small team of engineers.
  • A mapping application can only go so far without large amounts of user-generated data.

....iOS 6 Maps is a disappointment any way you slice it. I have friends who refuse to upgrade to iOS 6 because of Maps. But Apple wasn't going to learn anything keeping Maps locked away for another year, and there was no way it was going to let Google control its mapping technology for a minute longer than it had to.

Apple's taking some serious blows for its buggy Maps app. But it made the right decision releasing it. Now it's just a question of how quickly Apple can fix iOS 6 Maps' many flaws and stem the negative press it has generated. Apple's probably going to be feeling the pain for a while.

I clearly called Apple's problem in the Max Keiser interview above. Google is light years ahead of Apple in cloud/distributed computing/applied data tech, experience and capabilities. This maps fiasco is merely the beginning, for Apple TV will face a real challenge from YouTube once it becomes an actual network in lieu of simply a platform (witness and reference the push for new, original content) and Google's many cloud based apps start making the iOS functionality appear as dated as it is. Apple has a very, very slim chance of catching up, and if it does it will because it spend a LOT of money, chopping up those margins.

Hence the prophetic, yet lonely and controversial piece from two years ago - Apple on the Margin, as well as Evidence Of Apple's Margin Compression Crops for its tablets.

Follow me:

  • Follow us on Blogger
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on Twitter
  • Follow us on Youtube

Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. 

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

file iconGoogle Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012
file iconGoogle Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011
file iconGoogle Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

file iconGoogle Final Report 10/08/2010

file iconAn Analysis and Valuation of Google's Android and AdMob 09/27/2010 

file iconGoogle Valuation Model 09/21/2010 
 file iconGoogle's VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010
file iconGoogle Cloud Based Services
file iconGoogle TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives...

  1. Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android  
  2. Did A Blog Best Wall Street's Best of the Best In Guaging The True Value of Google? We Have To Think More Like An Entrepreneur & Less Like A Wall Street Analyst


There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Unique, Indpendent and Accurate Apple Research

file iconApple 2Q2012 results analysisTooltip04/26/2012
file iconApple Margin & Valuation NoteTooltip03/15/2012
file iconApple Margin Strategem WIPTooltip02/13/2012
file iconApple - Competition and Cost StructureTooltip05/16/2011
file iconApple Earnings Guidance AnalysisTooltip08/12/2010

file iconApple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis ModelTooltip08/03/2010

file iconApple business model noteTooltip

File Icon Apple Margin & Valuation Note

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Saturday, 22 September 2012 14:11

The Truly Unbiased iPhone 5 Review & Samsung Galaxy Comparison

 I picked up an iPhone 5 to put it through its paces and found a few more RDF (reality distortion field)-powered myths to bust along the way. Now, this is a financial blog, not a tech blog, but I do analyze a lot of tech and there's a lot of non-sense out there in the tech blogs that culminate into inaccurate and simply wrong conclusions - nearly all of which end up worshipping Apple products when they are severaly outclassed by Android, et. l.

The press is all aglow with the iPhone's prowess - apparently forgetting that this is just catching up to last year's Android phones save processor speed. This is what the iPhone has going for it:

  • Speed - it's very fast. About as fast as a 1.6 ghx quad core Samsung chipped phone, give or take.
  • Speaker sound - the best I've seen (heard) on a phone.
  • Battery power - it seems quite frugal, but the screen is still so friggin' small the batter doesn't have many pixels to push!

The rest? I don't think it matches even last year's Samsung Galaxy S2, definitely not this year's and will likely pale to the 1080p phones to be announced next month and the Galaxy Note 2. Now to be fair, I've only spend a couple of hours with this device, but I will issue a more complete finding in the near future.

For those that are gushing over the camera, well below you will find a side by side comparison with the now soon to be obscelesced (next month) Samsung Galaxy Note. That's right, last years tech against the flagship released yesterday. This pick was taken at the outdoor seating of S.E.A. in the Meat Packing District in NYC at about 11 pm. Those who know the area know the lighting situation. Look at the pick (reduced overall size since the whole thing was over 5 megs and I don't want you guys crashing my server), and enlarge if you wish to search for artifacts, accuracy and noise. Click here to see the original photos in full size, which allows you to see the difference more starkly.

 

thumb BoomBustBlog Girls Smartphone Camera comparison copythumb BoomBustBlog Girls Smartphone Camera comparison copy

 

 

Remember, this is a comparison of the new iphone against the old Note. The new Note/S3 have a much faster processor which allows the camera software to be configured to do much more. Yet even with this antiquated hardware, the iPhone 5 pales signficantly. The difference is exacerbated when viewed on screen for the Note makes the iPhone screen look like a toy.

thumb 20120922 091840thumb 20120922 091840

 

In addition, the demand for the iPhone 5 was obviously significant. The issue is we will never know how significant because the perception of demand has been artificially stoked. Last week's initial thought's on the iPhone 5 announcements contained:

There’s no doubt that demand is extreme for the iPhone 5, but Tim Cook (CEO of Apple) is a supply chain guru by both training and experience. I find it absolutely untenable that Cook cannot forecast demand for his main product and primary cash cow better than that. This is the 5th or 6th iteration of the most important device that Apple sells, and a supply chain whiz can’t avoid  sellout on the first day???!!! Come now.

A supposed insider going by "Dry Throat" allegedly corroborated my thoughts, as reported by the UK Register, theregister.co.uk/.../... (h/t BoomBustBlogger Simon Yohan):

Quote:

In a revelation that seems set to shake the technology world to its very foundations, a clandestine Register source has informed us that secretive shiny-stuff behemoth Apple could easily supply more than enough iPhone 5s to meet initial demand: but that it deliberately chose not to. Our source, known to us only by the codename "Dry Throat", claims to have enjoyed a high level of access to the decision-making process within the mighty gizmo-peddling operation in the run-up to last week's earth-shattering handset announcement. "Cook and all the top boys were worried," Dry Throat told his Reg handlers, referring to Apple supremo Tim Cook. "I mean, think about it. There's no Steve: that's not good. How the hell are you supposed to get mass cult hysteria going without the Grand High Warlock? "Then, look at the damn thing. It's basically a dead ringer for an old Samsung Galaxy, but with a smaller screen. And we really shot ourselves in the foot with 4G. It's a massive power gobbler - and that's going to kind of flag up the fact that we're the only guys who don't let you swap batteries ... basically because we're really insanely greedy.

"So we're left with Mr Dull from Accounts giving a pitch which says 'Hey guys, why don't you buy a Samsung Galaxy, except double price and with really bad battery life and no option to change batteries. Oh, and it costs more. And if you want it with an SD card, you have to buy one built in from us at like five times retail price, and we've chosen not to use an industry standard connector ... basically out of uncontrollable greed, again'

... "Don't let anyone have many," he said. "That way you're not saying, 'hey, buy our mediocre and really expensive offering'. You're saying, 'see this? Over here? Where everyone else is looking? You can't have this'.

"That way if you do get hold of one, you feel really pleased regardless of the fact it's not much good. And if you can't get one, you really want one. It's so simple - but so effective."

Quote:

"Come off it, like they couldn't have millions of the damn things ready in advance and just deliver them to the shops - of course they could, people do it all the time with normal products. But if you could just buy one straight off, it wouldn't be special any more, would it? It's not special in itself, it hasn't got anything the others haven't got. If a lot of people actually had one early on, even fanboys might just realise that. "As for 'shipping dates have moved back two weeks', don't make me laugh. They were probably sitting there in Cupertino saying 'Huh, nobody's buying it - move back shipping dates by a week, that'll get things moving'. In reality there are probably warehouses stuffed full of the damn things all over the world. Sure, your iPhone 'just left China' ... come on. It's been sitting in a warehouse round the corner for a fortnight while you were shivering in the queue outside the Apple Store like a chump. There are Apple guys rubbing handfuls of iPhone 5s against their naked bodies, using them as paperweights, playing iPhone 5 Jenga - while you're standing outside the shop with your nose pressed against the window, you simp. "I mean, what's next? 'Track the parts of your iPhone, watch as they come together in Shenzhen? Look, it's nearly assembled now - but, o noes! The unpaid slave intern has dropped it and cracked the case - track the replacement case as it moves to the factory by water buffalo ... track the worker as he reports to the motivational centre for corrective electroshock training' "Some people will believe anything."

Well, my visit to the Apple store pretty much said the same. I went by the Grand Central store in NYC about 5 pm, there was no line at all! This lady and I sat there alone talking to the gatekeeper with the tickets. I went to the 24 hour flagship store on 5th and Central Park South, and there was about a 20-30 minute line.

 thumb IMG 20120921 190223thumb IMG 20120921 190223

There was also a catch that plays well to the type of demographic that buys these overpriced products. You see, in the pic above, the Apple employees had you take an iPhone 5 inventory ticket and wait on line outside. Being who I am, I simply took a ticket and went in the store to buy the product, skipping the line outside. After getting in, I found that there was absolutely no line at the register to buy the iPhone and there were about 20 cashiers working. In addition, the store (5th ave, NYC) was not nearly as busy as usual, although there were a lot of people playing with the new iPhones. You see, the perception of a long wait was created, but all they had to do was to let the people walk in, they would have gotten their phones like me (it took me about 80 seconds) and walk back out. 

Reggie has busted that Apple long line wait conspiracy, eh?

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Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. 

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

file iconGoogle Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012
file iconGoogle Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011
file iconGoogle Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

file iconGoogle Final Report 10/08/2010

file iconAn Analysis and Valuation of Google's Android and AdMob 09/27/2010 

file iconGoogle Valuation Model 09/21/2010 
 file iconGoogle's VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010
file iconGoogle Cloud Based Services
file iconGoogle TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives...

  1. Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android  
  2. Did A Blog Best Wall Street's Best of the Best In Guaging The True Value of Google? We Have To Think More Like An Entrepreneur & Less Like A Wall Street Analyst


There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Unique, Indpendent and Accurate Apple Research

file iconApple 2Q2012 results analysisTooltip04/26/2012
file iconApple Margin & Valuation NoteTooltip03/15/2012
file iconApple Margin Strategem WIPTooltip02/13/2012
file iconApple - Competition and Cost StructureTooltip05/16/2011
file iconApple Earnings Guidance AnalysisTooltip08/12/2010

file iconApple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis ModelTooltip08/03/2010

file iconApple business model noteTooltip

File Icon Apple Margin & Valuation Note

 

 

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Friday, 21 September 2012 00:00

Now You Will See Margin Compression In iPhones As Well As iPads

As reported by ZDnet, "The total hardware inside a new 16GB iPhone 5 is estimated to cost $199, and the report adds another $8 manufacturing costs, bringing the total to $207. Contrast this to the off contract price of $649 that Apple charges for the handset and you can see how Apple keeps the dollars rolling in."

iSuppli's analyst is quoted:

"With the base model carrying a $199 BOM, the iPhone 5’s components are expected to be slightly more expensive compared to the iPhone 4S model," said Andrew Rassweiler, senior principal analyst, teardown services, for IHS. "The low-end iPhone 4S with the same memory density as the base-model iPhone 5 carried a BOM of $188, according to a preliminary estimate issued by IHS in October 2011. While the price of some components, such as NAND flash, has fallen during the past year, the iPhone 5’s overall BOM has increased mainly because its display and wireless subsystems are more expensive compared to the iPhone 4S."

In Math and the Pace of Smart Phone Innovation May Take a Byte Out of Apple’s (Short-lived?) Dominance I gave the two year heads up that Apple has already lost the market share race. 


This loss in market share caused Apple to squeeze their own margins for they had to keep up with the rampant Android innovations. Look at the iSuppli chart above - bigger screens (like Android), LTE (like Andrioid), notification mods in OS (like Andrioid), cloud services (like Andrioid), and soon NFC (like Andrioid). Apple on the Margin explained this 2 years in advance, as did Evidence Of Apple's Margin Compression Crops for its tablets:


image061
image061
image061image061


image051
image051

 

File Icon Apple Margin & Valuation Note) and the price of Apple today (click here to subscribe). I also urge the same for Google using our latest Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary.

As excerpted: 

It is worth noting that the key assumptions that underline the above valuations – (1) iPhone continuing to witness stupendous growth *******  in 2012 and ****** 2013 over a larger base and (2) iPhone margins continue to remain healthy off stable prices and despite increase in material cost – should be keenly watched over the next couple of quarters. 

Then ask them bout the logical argument behind the concern with Apple and the extremely volatile price action of the last few weeks. As stated many times in the past, The BoomBustBlog argument and analysis is solid.

What else is there to the earnings announcement? Well we were absolutely correct in terms of the oncoming margin compression of the the product lines, something that was actually easy to see coming but many refused to admit. Of course, there will be those select few that say, "But wait, the company reported an INCREASE in margins while you said there will be a decrease!". Yes, that's true and both can exist simultaneously.

Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_2Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_2Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_2Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_2Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_2Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_2

Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_3Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_3Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_3Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_3Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_3Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_3

Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_4Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_4Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_4

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Monday, 17 September 2012 13:18

Samsung vs Apple vs Google in the Twitterverse and My Comments On The Same

Samsung vs Apple vs Google in the Twitterverse, bullet edition…

  • the Galaxy S III surpassed the iPhone 4S in US sales - I clearly predicted this nearly two years ago, see Math and the Pace of Smart Phone Innovation May Take a Byte Out of Apple’s (Short-lived?) Dominance
  • Galaxy S III knocks iPhone 4S from US top spot (but iPhone 5 looms)
  • Samsung blasts through 20m Galaxy S III sales in 100 days
  • Samsung is also catching the religion when it comes to marketing and advertising, it makes one wonder what the hell took so long...

    samsung galaxy s iii anti iphone 5 ad full sizesamsung galaxy s iii anti iphone 5 ad full size
  • Samsung Galaxy S4 tipped to chase iPhone 5 with March 2013 release – As I have stated several times before, the resources Android vendors are throwing at the market simply cannot be matched by Apple.
  • Pre-orders for Apple's iPhone 5 sell out in less than an hour tech.fortune.cnn.com…
  • Apple says: iPhone5 topped two million in just 24 hours, more than double the previous record of one million held by iPhone 4S. Of course, this does not take the full reality into consideration. For one, this is the release date on a product that has purposefully limited supply so as to keep demand stoked, or at least to exacerbate the perception of high demand. There’s no doubt that demand is extreme for the iPhone 5, but Tim Cook (CEO of Apple) is a supply chain guru by both training and experience. I find it absolutely untenable that Cook cannot forecast demand for his main product and primary cash cow better than that. This is the 5th or 6th iteration of the most important device that Apple sells, and a supply chain whiz can’t avoid  sellout on the first day???!!! Come now.
  • More importantly, the increase in sales of the iPhone 5 relative to the iPhone 4S is due largely in part to the increase in the smartphone market in general.

It is adherence to these numbers that allowed me to clearly predict RIMs demise - see Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion for the actual analysis from over two years ago that laid RIM bare, and RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP? for some pretty charts...

I doubt very seriously if this device will be able to stem RIM's US market share slide, and they face a tough battle abroad, particularly in east Asia, one or the largest potential markets.

Still, despite all mentioned above, I thoroughly applaud RIM for sticking to their enterprise security, something that the other players have yet to even develop to such an extent - RIM Refuses to Disclose Codes as BlackBerry Faces Indonesian, Saudi Bans.

Click here to download (File Icon Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model), and click here to subscribe. Starting next week I will produce substantial forensic analysis with sensitivity and scenario analysis for subscribers to give valuations for Google, Apple, Microsoft and RIM along a variety of market win/loss events. 

The same thing has actually been happening to Apple, with the same ignorance portrayed by the pundits due to strong fundamental performance in the here and now - just like RIM exhibited back then - see Empirical Evidence of Android Eating Apple!.

I often scan the comment sections of many blogs and websites to get a feel for the readers' perspective. One premise I see espoused often is that Android is succeeding at the expense of Nokia, RIM and MSFT, and not that of Apple. Both I, and the facts, disagree with this notion. As it stands now, Android is literally eating Apple's smart phone market share, and as of last quarter - which does include a partial month of the big sellers from both the Apple (iPhone 4) and Android (Evo, Samsung Galaxy, Droid X) camps - Apple's phone sales are actually growing slower than the market is expanding. In comparison to the near parabolic growth of the last few years, it is evident that that growth is going somewhere. Where do you think it is going? The potential for lag in phone sales right before a major hardware upgrade should be taken into consideration, for there was probably a lull in Apple phone sales in anticipation of the iPhone 4 release, but the same can be said for the Android handsets as well (all around the month of June).

Below is a graph showing the longer term trend of Apple market share in the smart phone space. It illustrates the explosive growth Apple has had through its iPhone series, and it also shows some seasonality (ex. lull before hardware upgrade season, etc.). As you can see, the growth trend, viewed either directly or as a moving average, shows marked downward momentum. Of course, it is highly unreasonable to expect a company to continue to grow at the pace that Apple has, but that is exactly what many Apple valuation models that I have come across have - literally hard-coded in. This is folly, in my opinion - particularly considering the effect of the Android competition that is already showing up. If you look closely, Apple's smart phone market share is already showing NEGATIVE growth!

 

Since I know that the chart may be a little difficult to read at the tail end encompassing several years of data, I have taken the liberty to drill down to the past year to get a closer look. Remember, Android sales didn't really get started until 8 months ago, and the big surge didn't occur until the Evo/Droid X/Samsung Galaxy series were launched in June, July and August - most of which is not captured here. The same is to be said for Apple and the iPhone 4.

Click to enlarge to printer size!

Despite increases in both the overall mobile market and more importantly, the smart phone contingent's penetration of said market:

    1. Apple's smart phone shipments are showing a negative growth trend
    2. and more importantly, Apple's smart phone market share is experiencing a very sharp downward trend as shown by both direct observation and that of the 2 period moving average.

Follow me:

  • Follow us on Blogger
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Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. 

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

file iconGoogle Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012
file iconGoogle Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011
file iconGoogle Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

file iconGoogle Final Report 10/08/2010

file iconAn Analysis and Valuation of Google's Android and AdMob 09/27/2010 

file iconGoogle Valuation Model 09/21/2010 
 file iconGoogle's VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010
file iconGoogle Cloud Based Services
file iconGoogle TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives...

  1. Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android  
  2. Did A Blog Best Wall Street's Best of the Best In Guaging The True Value of Google? We Have To Think More Like An Entrepreneur & Less Like A Wall Street Analyst


There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Unique, Indpendent and Accurate Apple Research

file iconApple 2Q2012 results analysisTooltip04/26/2012
file iconApple Margin & Valuation NoteTooltip03/15/2012
file iconApple Margin Strategem WIPTooltip02/13/2012
file iconApple - Competition and Cost StructureTooltip05/16/2011
file iconApple Earnings Guidance AnalysisTooltip08/12/2010

file iconApple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis ModelTooltip08/03/2010

file iconApple business model noteTooltip

File Icon Apple Margin & Valuation Note

Published in BoomBustBlog
Read more...
Thursday, 06 September 2012 11:03

Reggie Middleton currently leading the CNBC Stock Draft Pick contest, see his opinion on air here

reggie on cnbc stock draft leadreggie on cnbc stock draft lead

Reggie Middleton currently leading the CNBC Stock Draft Pick contest, see his opinion on air here.

Josh Brown, who went with RIMM is coming in last. He actually had a very logical argument in going with a company that was trading under enterprise and break up value, except for the fact that the value listed on the books are not indicative of the actual value of the assets. In addition, management has simply and unequivocally fucked up! The market has clearly and decidedly opted for large, high resolution touch screens. The market has made it very clear that multimedia and content sharing are priorities. Despite this, RIMM management has clung to the older model of doing business, hence giving no clue that it has a chance of competing with Apple, Google or even MSFT/Nokia.

Remember, when I first called a short on RIMM, it was kicking ass fundamentally, which caused many to poo poo the analysis, but trends take time to recognize, and the trend in adoption was against RIMM as the market started adopting Android en masse. This is the EXACT same thing happening to Apple right now, as Apple is kicking ass fundamentally as well, BUT the market is clearly adopting Android as a de facto standard RIGHT NOW! With 64% global market share AND the fastest growth rate in the industry, don't be shocked if you see the RIMM story repeat itself in some form or fashion. For those who don't recall...

BoomBustBlog banking and tech research has been quite prescient for 2010/2011. Subscribers who took advantage of this deserve kudos. To wit, and as excerpted from Another RIMM Job? It's Amazing How Many Institutions Don't Read The BoomBust!

Let's try this again: As Forecast Last Year and Clearly Demonstrated This Year, Research in Motion's Problems Are Far From Over

Research in Motion has been one of the most successful tech shorts of this blog's history (thus far). We first recommended a short last year and reiterated it in the fist quarter of this year. Reference:

  1. BoomBustBlog Research Performs a RIM Job!
  2. BoomBustBlog's Fundamental/Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion Has Returned 2x-3x Original Investment This Year!!

This is a snapshot of RIMM as of the writing of this article...

image002image002image002

As you can see, the results have been spectacular, particular if well timed puts have been put to use. In January I posted:

I personally see a clear leader in mobile computing becoming visible in 2012. Using options, a minimum of 2012 expiration OTM and ATM contracts can be purchase at the most optimistic break points demarcated by the model above after being populated with assumptions you feel most valid. I will have a proprietary BoomBustBlog option model available for download to paying subscribers by the end of next week, at which time we will revisit the analysis above.

A 50% drop in price later... On that note, Bloomberg reports: RIM to Cut 2,000 Jobs as BlackBerry Loses Share to IPhone

... 

Google's Android has, by far, inflicted much more damage to RIM than Apple ever has. This was easily seen over 13 months ago, at least by BoomBust Bloggers, referencing BoomBustBlog Research Performs a RIM Job!...

Page 5 of our Research in Motion forensic analysis (released in the summer of 2010 - File Icon RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Professional & Institutional or File Icon RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Retail) clearly stated that while we expected RIMM’s handset shipments to rise as a result of a rapidly expanding smartphone market, it will lose considerable market share....

As it turns out, it appears that we were erred slightly to the optimistic side with an 18% market share estimate for 2010. By the end of the 3rd quarter, RIM has fallen to 15.3% according to information calculated from IDC, and its decent has accelerated far faster than even we (the bears) have anticipated – a full 350 basis points for the quarter. This is 6x the decent of last quarter and 7 x the decent of the quarter before that. It is quite safe to assume that they will be materially below this point at year end (the data that we crunch is lagged by a quarter). This market share loss is most assuredly caused by the outsized growth of Android, which I will demonstrate in a minute. Below are charts generated from an updated version of the subscriber document File Icon Smartphone Market Model – Blog Download Version:

As you can see above, for the full year of 2010 RIM has trailed smartphone market penetration growth and that trail has increased each and every quarter with the rate of decent rapidly increasing.

RIM’s share price has benefited from an increasing equity market as well as the announcement of new products. The Torch, although possessive of redeeming new qualities, is essentially still a generation behind Apple and 1.5 generations behind Android. See RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?…

Research in Motion is following the EXACT path we at BoomBustBlog had laid out for it since the 3rd quarter of 2010.

Those that chose to follow this short recommendation had plenty of tools to assist in the decision making:

  • File Icon RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Professional & Institutional: a 45 page analysis of RIMM, it’s strengths, weaknesses and prospects and probably the most thorough valuation that I know of concerning this company.
  • File Icon RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Retail: a 10 page abridged version for my retail clients, containing all that you need to know including the market scenario valuation analysis (see Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion for more information). 
  • File Icon Smartphone Market Model – Blog Download Version: the interactive smart phone market analysis and penetration model, includes data for HTC, Apple, Nokia and Research in Motion
  • File Icon RIMM Multivariate Valuation Mode: the big Kahuna, for professional and institutional subscribers only. Please review the following overview of the model.

RIM Model Assumptions

RIM Model Factors Driving Growth

After populating the assumptions tab, jump to the “Factors Driving Growth” tab and choose the player whose market share and penetration data you want to populate the valuation model for the sake of comparison. The choices are “Nokia”, “RIMM”, “Apple”, “HTC” and “Others”. This tab is annual data only.

RIM Model Quarterly Factors (driving growth)

On the next tab, you can do the same as the previous (this tab is quarterly growth). Each of the growth tabs has charts that are print and presentation quality. Just be sure to tell everyone where you got thesis, data and analysis from :-) .

Other tabs in the model…

RIM Model Income Statement

RIM Model Device Market Analysis

RIM Model Revenue Analysis

RIM Model Device Revenues

Valuation and Multivariate Scenario Output

Final output is RIMM’s valuation using our analytics and your assumptions as input in the assumption tab above, as well as a multivariate scenario analysis showing changes in quite a number of variables (assuming all others remain the same) and their effects on your base valuation, as well as the percentage upside/downside from the current price.


Additional RIM writings...

  • As Forecast Last Year and Clearly Demonstrated This Year, Research in Motion's Problems Are Far From Over
  • BoomBustBlog Research Performs a RIM Job! 
  • As Forecast Last Year and Clearly Demonstrated This Year, Research in Motion's Problems Are Far From Over
  • BoomBustBlog Research Performs a RIM Job! 
  • RIM Gets RAMMED! Again... Remember That Contrarian Call 1st Quarter of 2010?
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