In reviewing today's headlines, we come across the reliably unreliable Eurozone statistician and forecasting figure failure, again: Euro Zone Economic Growth Below Forecasts:

The euro zone economy grew at the same quarterly rate in the fourth quarter as in the third, data showed on Tuesday, defying expectations of an acceleration.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said gross domestic product in the 16 countries using the euro at the time grew 0.3 percent in the October-December period, the same as in the third quarter.

Year-on-year, the expansion was 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.9 percent in the third quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected increases of 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and of 2.1 percent year-on-year.

Of course, it is that expected (yet not actually achieved) growth that was supposed to fund the deficits in many of the PIIGS group austerity plans. Export was a major component of this, but if the Eurozone is growing slower than anticipated (big surprise) and the EU members rely primarily on trade with each other, then who will buy all of the stuff to allow these states to pull each other out of the hole. The kicker is that the individual countries' forecasts are considerably more optimistic than the economists' forecasts, which in and of themselves were simply too optimistic. This has been a pattern since the markets collapsed three years ago. Referencing "Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!" you can see where this is a pattern in country after indebted country in Europe - both in and out of the Eurozone - Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, even the UK. To wit...

Ever since the summer of last year, I have been one of the very few - if not the only - commentators that have warned of impending margin compression in the current NASDAQ and general market darling, Apple. This is not speculation, it is basically a foregone conclusion. In addition, it is really not difficult to surmise. Apple enjoyed virtually competition free dominance in the graphical smartphone arena for nearly three years, but the onset of Android has not only brought heavy competition, it has brought competition that is superior in many areas. Competition, almost by definition, means margin pressure. It's simple business logic. Despite what appears on the surface to be common sense, Apple afficiandos from consumers to investors to analysts to arm chair pundits fail to grasp what should be considered a very simple concept. I have spend considerable digital ink attempting to illustrate this last year...

The Harlem Community Development Corporation and AAREPNY hosted a breakfast symposium on real estate last Thursday in which I was the keynote speaker. The audience consisted of bankers, developers, investors, lawyers... the usual fare. I fear I may have rained on the optimism parade with my presentation, but I also feel a few salient points were communicated. I have included portions of the presentation here for the blog readers to peruse. One of the main themes of the presentation was that of "lost decades". How likely is it that we can have 20 more years of housing price declines? Note: The "74%" reference below is a typo, the Japanese residential index did not drop that far.

Let's see if any of this sounds familiar, as excerpted from Wikipedia:

This is my response to an inciteful insightful comment posted by GJK313. It is in reference to an article which readers can find here, titled "FASB Surrenders - America Win". I suggest readers read the aforelinked document in its entirety before moving on. Notice how this is written by economists and analysts, not real world investors that are investing THEIR OWN CAPITAL! When I state "own capital" I mean their money, and not that of their clients. I cannot fathom how anyone who had their own money at stake would ever want more ambiguity in pricing assets, in lieu of less.. Let me pick this apart...