We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be seen from the chart,

Apple 2016 Revenus

Published in BoomBustBlog

So, the stock market, bond market and real estate markets are all at all-time highs. Everything is Awesome! You know better than that. You see, when the bond market wakes up (that has happened already, btw), the resultant higher rates will drag the rest of Wonderland back into reality. Where do you think those steadily increasing EPS counts have been coming from? The cheapest credit every simply tempts management to do some of the dumbest things every....

thumb Bonds fuel stock buybacks4

Published in BoomBustBlog
Thursday, 01 January 2009 08:17

Reggie Middleton's BoomBustBlog.com Press Room

Who is Reggie Middleton?: A Backgrounder 

For the Media Only 

Call +1.718.407.4751 or email our customer relations


Reggie Middleton's Bio


What does Reggie Middleton do and how does he do it

Performance & Research: Reggie beat ALL of the major Wall Street analysts, hedge fund indices, pop investment personalities and global market indices by at least 100%


Facts & Figures
Reggie had nearly 5 million visitors since September of 2007, and over 3,000 subscribers
  •  Seventy five percent of BoomBustBloggers are executives and professionals
  • Over 35% of Reggie's readers make over $100,000 per year, and over 25% make over $200,000 per year.
  •  Thirty two percent of Reggie's readers are millionaires.
  • 18%are multimillionaires
  •  Five percent have net worths over $10 million.
  •  Seventeen percent have investable assets over a million dollars
  •  Nine percent have currently investable assets over $2 million
Reggie's BoomBustBlog research model has produced returns of approximately 100% for the year ending December 31st, 2008 while practically every other professional investor and index was deeply negative
 
Reggie's proprietary trading account finished the year up well over 400% on a time weighted basis for the year ending December 31st, 2008 




  Reggie has appeared in the following: Forbes, Las Vegas Business Press, NY DailyNews, CNNfn: Digital Jam, Fortune, PC Magazine, BET, PC World, Real Estate Finance Today, Interactive Week, eWeek, Computer Shopper

Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I am definitively outside the box - not your typical or stereotypical Wall Street investor. I work out of my home, not a Manhattan office. I build my own technology and perform my own research - in lieu of buying it or following the crowd. I create and follow my own macro strategies and am by definition, a contrarian to the nth degree. You can consider me the individual investor of the new millenium.

Since I use my research as a tool for my own investing to actually put food on my table, I can stand behind it as doing what it is supposed too - educate, illustrate and elucidate. I do not make my living from selling advice, I make my living from acting upon my own advice, I am not a reporter hence do not sell stories. I am not a broker/bank, hence I do not have to hawk my services. I am an entrepreneur who exists just outside of main

stream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows me freedom to do things that many can not. For instance, I pride myself on developing some of the highest quality research available, regardless of price. No conflicts of interest, no corporate politics, no special favors. Just the hard truth as I have found it - and believe me, my team and I do find it!

 

I find most research lacking, in both quality and quantity. Thus, the reason why I had to create my own research staff of high caliber analysts and forensic accountants was due to my dissatisfaction with what was currently available - to both individuals and institutions. 

So here I am, creating my own research for my own investment activity. What really sets my actions apart is that I offer much of what I produce to the public at highly subsidized prices or free of charge. Why would I do such a thing when others easily charge 5 and 6 digits annually for what some may consider a lesser product? It is akin to open source analysis! My ideas and implementations are actually improved and fine tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - no matter how smart those few may believe themselves to be.

Very recently, I have started charging for the forensics portion of my work, which has freed up the resources to develop the site to deliver even more research for free, particularly on the global macro and opinion front. This move has allowed me to serve an more diverse constituency, which now includes the institutional consumer (ie., investment turned commercial banks, hedge funds, pensions, etc,) as well as the newbie individual investor who is just getting started - basically the two polar opposites of the investing spectrum. I am proud to announce major banks as paying clients, and brand new investors who take my book recommendations and opinions on true wealth and success to heart.

So, this is how I use my background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation and financial analysis to pursue, analyze and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities.

 

Our Subscribers - Social Proof:

  • Banks (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citibank)
  • Consultants (Deloitte)
  • Hedge Funds (Citadel)
  • Central Banks and global quasi-government agenices (the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of Canada, The International Monetary Fund)
  • Insurance companies (The Hartford)
  • The nations largest real estate companies (General Growth Properties)
  • High net worth and very high net worth individuals .
    • 75% of the BoomBustBloggers are executives and professionals
    • Over 35% of Reggie;s readers make over $100,000 per year, and over 1/4 make over $200,000 per year.
    • 32% of Reggie's readers are millionaires.
    • 18% are multimillionaires
    • 5% have net worths over $10 million.
    • 17% have investable assets over a million dollars
    • 9% have currently investable assets over $2 million

 

Praise from our readers/subscribers

  • wanted to say hello and thank you for all the work thats done here. i know nothing, basically about investments, markets, stratagy etc. i'm a working a playwright-actor-director. thats my line. therein lies my cash supply. ive not traded on your advise as yet, i do indeed think that may change over time. i stuck my 550 in the pot and the langauge of the martkets i'm taking in from you is eyepopping. the curve is breaking down quickly and i thank you and your team.


  • From KC Dallas – “For those ignorant to assume the style of ones writing is an indication of their investment knowledge is, well, ignorant. Those that chose to bash Reggie Middleton should check out his work. It is some of the most in-depth analysis you will find! 
While the pundits were telling everyone the worst was over and to buy, buy, buy (that includes Mr. Bove) Reggie's analysis told you how sick the financial companies were. If the pundits took the time to do their job and actually report the truth, they would have told you exactly what Reggie had been stating since 2007.Pundits have a job and that's to help Wall Street take your money.
I highly recommend those who decided to bash on Reggie to take a look at his site and his data. You WILL NOT be disappointed. You'll get the truth backed up by factual data. Look over some of the data Reggie put out there on MS, LEH, GS, and WFC.
When the pundits started reporting on earnings reports that were stretched truths, you would have already known exactly what amounts of Hide the Level 3 assets these firms had.If you want to see a difference in your accounts, check out his work. Yes, I am biased. Why? Because I've been checking out his site for months and I've been very well educated by his information as well as benefiting financially. Reggie... Thanks for an awesome year!!!! Looking forward to 2009 with you.”

 

  • From Prescient – “For those who don't know Reggie he's the best around, GGP is his crown jewel. He also called HIG and the other insurers and the downfall of the IBs. His analysis is the best. I shouldn't have closed my short on GGP in the $20s, and you shouldn't have closed it in the teens,wow! Congrats on all the success man, you've earned it.
  • From Smarty Pants “Nice summary of the Keynesian viewpoint of the economy. As your chart of US consumer credit shows, the US economy has been running on borrowed money for some time. The past four years of "growth" have been paid for by borrowing nearly $500 Billion to spend…….. That said, Mr. Middleton has presented an extensive and useful body of economic evidence that, for those who fantasize about a return to 2005, there really is more to fear than fear itself.”
  • From Mike – “Hello Reggie:I am a new subscriber. Great research reports from what I am reading this far. Question: is there a summary listing of companies that you have covered or looking at from an investment point of view? There is a lot of content here and want to get caught up and focus on where the opportunities are. I do not want to overlook any potential investment opportunities. Great write up on HIG (The Hartford). I am actually an employee of the company, so it was a very insightful read. Stock rebounded after Friday's "investor day" but I think troubles still loom..particulary is the commercial mortgage market continue to get hit. Thanks Mike
  • From Shaunsnoll -  “you've been KILLING it lately!! is this the longest streak you've ever been on?  because its the longest streak of anyone i personally know for sure.  looking forward to the emerging market stuff Reggie!
  • Reggie has been consistently bearish on the financial stocks for many months. I, for, one, am appreciative of his insights and articles, and have made a lot of money following many of his short recommendations. I would have done even better if I had followed them more aggressively!

   

  See what else my readers have been saying in our Praise section .

Published in Uncategorized
Thursday, 01 January 2009 08:17

Reggie Middleton's BoomBustBlog.com Press Room

Who is Reggie Middleton?: A Backgrounder 

For the Media Only 

Call +1.718.407.4751 or email our customer relations


Reggie Middleton's Bio


What does Reggie Middleton do and how does he do it

Performance & Research: Reggie beat ALL of the major Wall Street analysts, hedge fund indices, pop investment personalities and global market indices by at least 100%


Facts & Figures
Reggie had nearly 5 million visitors since September of 2007, and over 3,000 subscribers
  •  Seventy five percent of BoomBustBloggers are executives and professionals
  • Over 35% of Reggie's readers make over $100,000 per year, and over 25% make over $200,000 per year.
  •  Thirty two percent of Reggie's readers are millionaires.
  • 18%are multimillionaires
  •  Five percent have net worths over $10 million.
  •  Seventeen percent have investable assets over a million dollars
  •  Nine percent have currently investable assets over $2 million
Reggie's BoomBustBlog research model has produced returns of approximately 100% for the year ending December 31st, 2008 while practically every other professional investor and index was deeply negative
 
Reggie's proprietary trading account finished the year up well over 400% on a time weighted basis for the year ending December 31st, 2008 




  Reggie has appeared in the following: Forbes, Las Vegas Business Press, NY DailyNews, CNNfn: Digital Jam, Fortune, PC Magazine, BET, PC World, Real Estate Finance Today, Interactive Week, eWeek, Computer Shopper

Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I am definitively outside the box - not your typical or stereotypical Wall Street investor. I work out of my home, not a Manhattan office. I build my own technology and perform my own research - in lieu of buying it or following the crowd. I create and follow my own macro strategies and am by definition, a contrarian to the nth degree. You can consider me the individual investor of the new millenium.

Since I use my research as a tool for my own investing to actually put food on my table, I can stand behind it as doing what it is supposed too - educate, illustrate and elucidate. I do not make my living from selling advice, I make my living from acting upon my own advice, I am not a reporter hence do not sell stories. I am not a broker/bank, hence I do not have to hawk my services. I am an entrepreneur who exists just outside of main

stream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows me freedom to do things that many can not. For instance, I pride myself on developing some of the highest quality research available, regardless of price. No conflicts of interest, no corporate politics, no special favors. Just the hard truth as I have found it - and believe me, my team and I do find it!

 

I find most research lacking, in both quality and quantity. Thus, the reason why I had to create my own research staff of high caliber analysts and forensic accountants was due to my dissatisfaction with what was currently available - to both individuals and institutions. 

So here I am, creating my own research for my own investment activity. What really sets my actions apart is that I offer much of what I produce to the public at highly subsidized prices or free of charge. Why would I do such a thing when others easily charge 5 and 6 digits annually for what some may consider a lesser product? It is akin to open source analysis! My ideas and implementations are actually improved and fine tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - no matter how smart those few may believe themselves to be.

Very recently, I have started charging for the forensics portion of my work, which has freed up the resources to develop the site to deliver even more research for free, particularly on the global macro and opinion front. This move has allowed me to serve an more diverse constituency, which now includes the institutional consumer (ie., investment turned commercial banks, hedge funds, pensions, etc,) as well as the newbie individual investor who is just getting started - basically the two polar opposites of the investing spectrum. I am proud to announce major banks as paying clients, and brand new investors who take my book recommendations and opinions on true wealth and success to heart.

So, this is how I use my background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation and financial analysis to pursue, analyze and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities.

 

Our Subscribers - Social Proof:

  • Banks (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citibank)
  • Consultants (Deloitte)
  • Hedge Funds (Citadel)
  • Central Banks and global quasi-government agenices (the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of Canada, The International Monetary Fund)
  • Insurance companies (The Hartford)
  • The nations largest real estate companies (General Growth Properties)
  • High net worth and very high net worth individuals .
    • 75% of the BoomBustBloggers are executives and professionals
    • Over 35% of Reggie;s readers make over $100,000 per year, and over 1/4 make over $200,000 per year.
    • 32% of Reggie's readers are millionaires.
    • 18% are multimillionaires
    • 5% have net worths over $10 million.
    • 17% have investable assets over a million dollars
    • 9% have currently investable assets over $2 million

 

Praise from our readers/subscribers

  • wanted to say hello and thank you for all the work thats done here. i know nothing, basically about investments, markets, stratagy etc. i'm a working a playwright-actor-director. thats my line. therein lies my cash supply. ive not traded on your advise as yet, i do indeed think that may change over time. i stuck my 550 in the pot and the langauge of the martkets i'm taking in from you is eyepopping. the curve is breaking down quickly and i thank you and your team.


  • From KC Dallas – “For those ignorant to assume the style of ones writing is an indication of their investment knowledge is, well, ignorant. Those that chose to bash Reggie Middleton should check out his work. It is some of the most in-depth analysis you will find! 
While the pundits were telling everyone the worst was over and to buy, buy, buy (that includes Mr. Bove) Reggie's analysis told you how sick the financial companies were. If the pundits took the time to do their job and actually report the truth, they would have told you exactly what Reggie had been stating since 2007.Pundits have a job and that's to help Wall Street take your money.
I highly recommend those who decided to bash on Reggie to take a look at his site and his data. You WILL NOT be disappointed. You'll get the truth backed up by factual data. Look over some of the data Reggie put out there on MS, LEH, GS, and WFC.
When the pundits started reporting on earnings reports that were stretched truths, you would have already known exactly what amounts of Hide the Level 3 assets these firms had.If you want to see a difference in your accounts, check out his work. Yes, I am biased. Why? Because I've been checking out his site for months and I've been very well educated by his information as well as benefiting financially. Reggie... Thanks for an awesome year!!!! Looking forward to 2009 with you.”

 

  • From Prescient – “For those who don't know Reggie he's the best around, GGP is his crown jewel. He also called HIG and the other insurers and the downfall of the IBs. His analysis is the best. I shouldn't have closed my short on GGP in the $20s, and you shouldn't have closed it in the teens,wow! Congrats on all the success man, you've earned it.
  • From Smarty Pants “Nice summary of the Keynesian viewpoint of the economy. As your chart of US consumer credit shows, the US economy has been running on borrowed money for some time. The past four years of "growth" have been paid for by borrowing nearly $500 Billion to spend…….. That said, Mr. Middleton has presented an extensive and useful body of economic evidence that, for those who fantasize about a return to 2005, there really is more to fear than fear itself.”
  • From Mike – “Hello Reggie:I am a new subscriber. Great research reports from what I am reading this far. Question: is there a summary listing of companies that you have covered or looking at from an investment point of view? There is a lot of content here and want to get caught up and focus on where the opportunities are. I do not want to overlook any potential investment opportunities. Great write up on HIG (The Hartford). I am actually an employee of the company, so it was a very insightful read. Stock rebounded after Friday's "investor day" but I think troubles still loom..particulary is the commercial mortgage market continue to get hit. Thanks Mike
  • From Shaunsnoll -  “you've been KILLING it lately!! is this the longest streak you've ever been on?  because its the longest streak of anyone i personally know for sure.  looking forward to the emerging market stuff Reggie!
  • Reggie has been consistently bearish on the financial stocks for many months. I, for, one, am appreciative of his insights and articles, and have made a lot of money following many of his short recommendations. I would have done even better if I had followed them more aggressively!

   

  See what else my readers have been saying in our Praise section .

Published in Uncategorized
Thursday, 24 January 2008 19:00

GGP: Foreclosure vs Asset Sale

As my readers should have gathered from my previous posts, I believe GGP is running into a cash shortfall over the next three operating years. Roughly 5% of their properties are candidates for foreclosure, due to LTVs in excess of 100% (basically, underwater) or sparse to negative cash flows. To further illustrate this point, I have carried out a GGP valuation under the additional two scenarios - 'Foreclosure' and 'Sale of unencumbered properties to meet financing requirements'.

 Foreclosure of properties

Since most of the GGP property specific mortgages are on a non-recourse basis, it actually stands to gain on foreclosure of its highly leveraged properties as the value of these loans are considerably higher than the value of the properties. Since these highly leveraged properties are primarily a drag on company’s overall valuation, the company’s valuation stands to gain on foreclosure of these properties despite taking into consideration additional cost of borrowing (even assuming a 300 basis point increase in the interest cost on refinancing). In view of the fact that GGP would still have to raise additional finance after allowing foreclosure, GGP may opt not to foreclose its properties and instead may sell some of its properties to re-pay its upcoming debt obligations.

 

The following is an extract from GGP’s 3Q2007 earnings release highlighting that GGP itself considers the foreclosure option under its non-recourse mortgages as a valuable benefit:

 

 

“But yet, the fact that we use primarily non-recourse mortgage debt, which is a different tack than some of the larger REITs who use unsecured debt as their principal source of debt capital, is in our view something that has always been undervalued or underappreciated in terms of its significance. We don't expect ever to default on a loan, but that is the benefit of the bargain you make with the lender. That's the definition of non-recourse. And if there was a property with a loan maturing that was worth substantially less than the loan amount, it would certainly be something that we would have the option to do without doing anything that's inconsistent with the arrangement that we made. So as I said, I don't expect we'll ever do it, we don't anticipate ever doing it. But I think the fact that you could do it if there was a serious problem with a particular asset is a valuable benefit.” Bernard Freibaum - General Growth Properties Inc - EVP, CFO

 

 

Sale of unencumbered properties

 

In case the company sells a few of its office properties to re-pay its debt, there is no impact on valuation since the benefit from interest savings will be more or less offset by loss of present value of properties sold. Moreover, since re-paying debt through re-financing additional debt or through sale of its properties is more of a financing decision (and not an operating decision) there will be no significant impact on the company’s valuation as such.