Saturday, 14 February 2009 23:00

Updated Wynn Research Note Available

I have made an updated Wynn Research Note available, complete with valuation and macro scenario analysis. A verbose report will be available to Pro level and Institutional subscribers in a week or two.

pdf Updated Wynn Research Note 2009-02-15 09:36:21 266.62 Kb

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The markets are again moving faster than I can process research and perform due diligence. I will release additional name that I have been looking at and gathering positions on in that space some time today or tomorrow. I would like to be clear that these are not subjects that have been thoroughly analyzed, but have popped up as shortlisted in initial screens.

Published in BoomBustBlog

I have released my preliminary findings on Sears Holdings. I will probably have more to say in this sector in about two or three weeks, as well. As is customary, the Pro version has an extended addendum which (this time) includes the macro assumption drivers taken from the valuation model. Sears is a little trickier than I initially assumed, and I am still quite a bit more bearish on the economy than most pundits and economists thus I have included an extensive sensitivity analysis to allow professionals and institutions to see my valuation band influenced by what we perceive to be a swing from a harsh recession to a early recovery throughout 2009 and 2010.

pdf Sears Holdings Research Report - Retail 2009-01-27 01:13:07 50.42 Kb

pdf Sears Holdings Research Report - Pro 2009-01-27 01:11:41 313.25 Kb

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Happy New Year all! With the new year comes the possibility of a strong bear market rally, which brings with it the potential to profit from the same companies whose fundamentals and macro situation led them to be profitable short candidates in 2008. While I don't give trading advice, I do want my subscribers to be aware that a sharp increase in a weak company's share price does not necessarily make that company stronger. Keep in my mind the 12 months that I held on to my GGP bear trade. This company had several major price run ups that pushed the position into deep drawdowns, which enabled me to double up on the position without incurring significant option premiums and paying much less for short stock positions. I was able to do this because I had conviction and confidence in my research. If the research is followed consistently over an extended period of time, there should be enouch profit and confidence for the average follower to easily endure drawdowns and adverse market movements with confidence and aplomb! Remember, once you break 100% in net profits, you should be playing completely with the house's money!

I say this because I don't want the less experienced subscribers to mistake my fundamental valuation style for that of an active trader. I can't predict the future, but I am very good at analyzing the present. With those thoughts in mind, I wish you to remember that I believe 2009 will see quite a few company failures, starting with retailers in the first and second quarters as banks wait for the holiday revenues to finish being counted.

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On that note, we have finalized the Consumer Retail shortlist and identified five companies (of the original 16 shortlisted) as the most overpriced in fundamental terms, hence could see further correction in their share prices in the coming months. Below, you can find the companies that were culled from the shortlist (I removed the actual picks out of the list, and will start issuing reports on them within a week and a half for paying subscribers). I have highlighted some of the rejects in red in the table below, for they may be of interest to somebody. We performed a historical trend analysis of all the 16 companies intially shortlisted, cut down from over 500 found in the scan, and came up with 4 strong candidates. Unfortunately, two of them were very thinly traded with no underlying options, thus representing too much risk for my tastes. I am keeping them on the back burner as a speculative trade in the case of a major market move to the upside which should minimize my risk. The other two should have a forensic report ready for paying subscribers in a week or two. Keep in mind that we have not looked into any qualitative aspects in the shortlist below.

Revenue Growth (%)

Net Income Growth (%)

Operating Cash Flows

Current Price

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q108

Q208

Q308

Alaska Air Group

25.5

-1.6%

110.9%

-39.8%

-585.1%

-171.9%

-435.3%

34.4

104.1

141.0

Allegiant Travel

41.8

31.9%

-1.2%

-11.2%

102.7%

-72.6%

84.5%

43.8

29.7

26.4

AmeriGas Partners LP

28.0

34.5%

-46.8%

-1.8%

144.8%

-106.6%

132.7%

28.2

103.0

180.2

Children's Place

23.2

-40.3%

84.5%

-39.0%

-133.4%

0.1%

23.2%

(1.2)

143.1

111.1

Churchill Downs

37.2

-26.2%

172.8%

-44.5%

-112.1%

3821.3%

-91.6%

44.5

85.0

74.6

Costco Wholesale Corp

53.7

7.3%

-2.0%

39.0%

25.1%

-10.0%

34.8%

853.4

1,763.2

2,176.2

Omnicare Inc

22.1

0.1%

-0.6%

3.4%

-244.2%

22.9%

56.8%

142.3

228.6

331.9

O'Reily Automative

28.1

6.9%

9.0%

57.8%

14.1%

20.4%

-25.8%

118.9

215.5

289.3

Owens & Minor

37.6

0.2%

2.4%

0.9%

7.8%

-2.4%

7.0%

108.4

79.0

123.6

Walmart Stores

55.3

-11.3%

107.6%

-50.1%

-26.2%

114.1%

-51.5%

3,705.0

9,983.0

10,173.0

Wynn Resorts

44.3

9.5%

6.0%

-6.8%

-28.6%

482.2%

-81.2%

138.3

338.8

488.8

I am also preparing reports on more European banks and insurers. This is going to be a bad year for the UK and the Eurozone! Paying subscribers should have a lot of info and ideas to digest in the next few weeks.

Published in BoomBustBlog
--> You can try out the service by purchasing a day pass. This will give you access to all retail and professional level research for 24 hours.

           You must be registered and subscribed to the site to access the free content. The content is provided on varying levels. Retail subscribes can only access "retail" and "free" content. Professional  and institutional subscribers can access all of the content.

           You must be registered and subscribed to the site to access the free content. The content is provided on varying levels. Retail subscribes can only access "retail" and "free" content. Professional  and institutional subscribers can access all of the content.

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