oilsuppydemand 

In continuing the discussion of whether spiking oil prices are indicative of a bubble (reference The Truth About Oil Pricing? Let's Discuss This), I broach the topic of the financialalization of physical energy products.

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1. The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So ... www-personal.umich.edu/ We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the comovement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
2.  The Financialization of Oil Markets: Potential Impacts and Evidence www.europeanenergyreview.eu/i Apr 24, 2012 – 

   oil price paper money

   oil price paper money1
3. Does 'Paper Oil' Matter? Energy Markets' Financialization and Equity ... papers.ssrn.com/ May 30, 2011 – We construct a uniquely detailed, comprehensive dataset of trader positions in U.S. energy futures markets. We find considerable changes in ...
4.  Financialization of Oil Markets | Energy Sector www.nrcan.gc.ca › ... › Crude Oil Prices 2000 - 2010 Financialization of Oil Markets. October 2010. Growing financial investment in the oil futures market may have magnified and influenced the scale of the oil price ...
5. The Financialization of Oil Markets Potential Impacts and Evidence www.oxfordenergy.org/ Mar 28, 2012 – Dr Bassam Fattouh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. TheFinancialization of Oil Markets Workshop. The International Energy Agency. Paris ...
6.  More Evidence Against Oil-Price Manipulation | The New Republic www.tnr.com/ Sep 30, 2009 – His key claim is that the financial-ization of oil brought about a change in the term structure of oil futures. A term structure is the relationship ...
7.  Understanding The Current Oil Market - Decline of the Empire

    

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   FRO Oil Price Arbitrage Addendumhot! 01/07/2009

   Potential Spillover Effects from the Middle East to the EU 02/02/2011

reggie on cnbc stock draft lead

Reggie Middleton currently leading the CNBC Stock Draft Pick contest, see his opinion on air here.

Josh Brown, who went with RIMM is coming in last. He actually had a very logical argument in going with a company that was trading under enterprise and break up value, except for the fact that the value listed on the books are not indicative of the actual value of the assets. In addition, management has simply and unequivocally fucked up! The market has clearly and decidedly opted for large, high resolution touch screens. The market has made it very clear that multimedia and content sharing are priorities. Despite this, RIMM management has clung to the older model of doing business, hence giving no clue that it has a chance of competing with Apple, Google or even MSFT/Nokia.

Remember, when I first called a short on RIMM, it was kicking ass fundamentally, which caused many to poo poo the analysis, but trends take time to recognize, and the trend in adoption was against RIMM as the market started adopting Android en masse. This is the EXACT same thing happening to Apple right now, as Apple is kicking ass fundamentally as well, BUT the market is clearly adopting Android as a de facto standard RIGHT NOW! With 64% global market share AND the fastest growth rate in the industry, don't be shocked if you see the RIMM story repeat itself in some form or fashion. For those who don't recall...

Last week I lamented Many Don't Understand The Google/Apple/Microsoft Business Model Dynamics. If it this was was widely understood, it would be common belief that Samsung is most likely to be the one to beat in the smart phone race, and Google's Android is nigh the de facto standard mobile OS. Apple's cult-like popularity has blinded many to facts, figures, trends and logic, but here goes anyway...

As most know by now, Apple won a billion dollar settlement against Samsung week before last (Apple v. Samsung verdict). That billion dollars pales against potential Samsung flagship phone sales though. Apple's problem is that it has shifted from trying to compete in the market to trying to compete in the courts. That is the mark of a company that has reached its peak. Don't believe me? Check out the result of trying to induce legal restraints on raw market forces... Meanwhile, Galaxy sales go supernova - New York Post.

As reported by Business Insider...

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That's right! The forced imposition of legal restrictions on the free market actually boosted Samsung's Galaxy sales significantly. People are now starting to research the "Better Product". So, what does Apple do instead of learning its lesson? As a result, Apple enjoins the Samsung flagship model as well. Apple is now apparently run by lawyers instead of designers, creative talent and engineers. Let's see how well that works out for them. In the meantime, let's see the actual market's reaction...

Samsung Galaxy S3 now outselling iPhone 4S in Southern California - San Fransisco Examiner

A survey of 32 Verizon, Sprint, and AT&T retailers in Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego show that the Samsung Galaxy S3is easily outselling the iPhone 4S. 28 of the locations that were surveyed are saying that Samsung is the winner. This is based on sales from the past 10 days.

The Samsung Galaxy S3 is on its way to becoming the biggest Android headset yet. Not only has it received excellent reviews, but sales figures are staggering. Samsung is expected to announce another Android headset very soon.

Samsung Outsells Apple iPhone Two-to-One Thanks to Galaxy S3

Samsung Outsells iPhone, Breaks Shipping Records

Samsung Galaxy S3 Knocks iPhone 4S Off Mobile Top Spot ...

Samsung galaxy S3 is now the most pre-ordered gadget in history ...

Hopefully, you get the hint by now, because it's apparent Apple's management doesn't. Less money legal fees, more money on R&D!!!

Most people don't even get the endgame here. This is not going to be a battle between Apple and Samsung. Apple has already lost this by maximizing profits last year in milking the iPhone 4 franchise with the iterative, barely evolutionary iPhone 4S instead of coming out with a revolutionary iPhone 5. Yes, it made them he most profitable company in the world, but it sold their prospects to hold that title in the future to Samsung and Google. The real battle will be between those two companies - Samsung and Google. As Samsung both eliminates the threat of Apple through market while at the same time effectively narrowing the playing field by marginalizing the other Android players (even the good ones) such as HTC, it allows Google to take the gloves off its Motorola Mobility acquisition and truly get busy. You see, there will be no OEMs to anger because Samsung would have put them all out of business or sidelined them. An all out, R&D budget busting battle between Google and Samsung with Samsung innovating on the software side (ex. the S3) while Google innovates on the hardware and business model side (ex. the Nexus series) will be a boon for consumers. If you think the GS3 is a phenomenal device (and it is, try one out if you haven't already), wait until Google opens up the spigots!!! 

Waiting in the background for someone to make the hubristic error that Apple just made will be Microsoft and their synthetic purchase of Nokia, throwing some pretty innovative tech at the marketing waiting for it to stick. The battle royale has yet to come, here's one of the reasons why...

Many people are still totally oblivious to exactly what it is that Google does. Here's a tutorial.

Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. 

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012

Google Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011

Google Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

Google Final Report 10/08/2010

An Analysis and Valuation of Google's Android and AdMob 09/27/2010 

Google Valuation Model 09/21/2010 

 Google's VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010

Google Cloud Based Services

Google TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives...

There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Unique, Indpendent and Accurate Apple Research

Apple 2Q2012 results analysis04/26/2012

Apple Margin & Valuation Note03/15/2012

Apple Margin Strategem WIP02/13/2012

Apple - Competition and Cost Structure05/16/2011

Apple Earnings Guidance Analysis08/12/2010

Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model08/03/2010

Apple business model note

 Apple Margin & Valuation Note

As excerpted: 

It is worth noting that the key assumptions that underline the above valuations – (1) iPhone continuing to witness stupendous growth *******  in 2012 and ****** 2013 over a larger base and (2) iPhone margins continue to remain healthy off stable prices and despite increase in material cost – should be keenly watched over the next couple of quarters. 

Then ask them bout the logical argument behind the concern with Apple and the extremely volatile price action of the last few weeks. As stated many times in the past, The BoomBustBlog argument and analysis is solid.

What else is there to the earnings announcement? Well we were absolutely correct in terms of the oncoming margin compression of the the product lines, something that was actually easy to see coming but many refused to admit. Of course, there will be those select few that say, "But wait, the company reported an INCREASE in margins while you said there will be a decrease!". Yes, that's true and both can exist simultaneously.

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Reggie Middleton on banking problems 

Investor Reggie Middleton — author of the BoomBustBlog.com — discusses the problems in our banking system with GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod. Reggie states that the current zero-interest rate policy being pursued by the Federal Reserve (often referred to as “ZIRP”) is masking problems with banks, but not solving them. He points out the basic truth that money-lending institutions make money off of interest, and that as long as rates remain artificially suppressed, this will constrain lenders’ profits. This is an issue all over the world — something that makes investing in this sector tricky. Middleton argues that the European situation is particularly fraught, on account of their being “too many chiefs and not enough Indians...

See the original interview posting on Gold is Money.

In continuing my rant on the Apple v. Samsung verdict, I wish to make clear once again that the vast majority of consumers of Google's and Apple's products are absolutely oblivious to the business model of Google, the business practices of Apple and the shadowy aggressive survival tactics of the behemoth that is Microsoft. If I am correct in this assertion then the potential ramifications of Apple actually defeating Samsung in the patent case decided last week is also lost on most. That is dangerous. Since it has been explained at least as good as I could have done already, let's peruse one of my favorite legal sites, Groklaw, on why understanding Apple's grand objectives in patent litigation matters:

To explain why I think it matters, I need to remind you of other things that have been going on, trying to exclude FOSS from the market. Because that really is what I think this is about.

Remember how Oracle tried to expand copyright law to cover the structure, sequence, and organization of Java APIs? It failed (subject to appeals). But it tried hard. Had it succeeded, it would have upended how any open source software could be built and used, and it would have excluded individual developers like Linus Torvalds in his student days creating Linux in his bedroom, because only those with money to pay royalties would be able to do any coding for the marketplace, if moves like that had succeeded. One of Michael A. Jacobs' law students volunteered to help cover the trial for Groklaw, and she told me that this is what she had learned about the case in class. I take it that means it was its purpose. Do you want a world where only the present incumbents are allowed to create anything meaningful? How does that benefit you or me?

Remember when Microsoft did its patent deal with Nokia and then they both did patent deals with MOSAID, a nonpracticing entity that presumably will be using the patents those two lovebirds provided to sue Android vendors and who knows who else? Patents exclude. That is their purpose. Android is the target. Did you notice how Microsoft crowed in public about the Apple verdict, predicting it would be beneficial to Microsoft?

Remember back when Microsoft helped SCO afford lawyers in the very early days of the SCO saga? What was the goal there? To slap royalties on Linux and get rid of the GPL, so as to block Open Source's free development model, and make it so expensive no one would want to use Linux on servers any more. Remember when SCO even offered to help Linux-using companies move not to SCO's UNIX products but to Microsoft servers?

Now, it's Apple and Microsoft on a jihad against Android and hence Google. That's why you see attacks on Google in an endless stream in the media and even in regulatory bodies, where Microsoft friends who take Microsoft money complain about Google. Android is eating Apple's and Microsoft's lunch in the marketplace, because people love it and OEMs love it, so the proprietary world has apparentely decided o use the legal system give them a win there, since they can't win fair and square in the marketplace. Actually, they could, but they'd rather not.

What are the weapons? IP law. They have copyright, they have patents, and now they have a new weapon of choice -- trade dress and design patents -- thanks to Apple. And that is why this case is so appalling, because Apple has now opened up a new area for litigation and exclusion. That's what the L.A. Times noticed:

Nevertheless, it's worth remembering that Apple made its name building successful, even iconic products based on ideas that other companies pioneered. The iPhone, for example, was a significantly better version of the smartphones Nokia introduced more than a decade earlier. Innovation is by its nature an iterative process, and good patent policy creates an incentive to innovate more. Bad policy just makes it easier for patent holders to extract royalties from anyone venturing within reach of their claims.

The risk is especially great in the area of patents on design, such as the ones that covered the look and feel of Apple's iPhones. There's a fine line between designs that are purely decorative (which, oddly enough, are the ones eligible for patents) and those that serve a function (which aren't). For example, do rounded corners on a phone simply help set it apart, or do they make the device slip more easily in and out of a pocket? ...

If Apple's win slows the wonderfully frenetic pace of product development in mobile devices and leads companies to battle in courts instead of the marketplace, consumers will be the ultimate losers.

There's no if about it. It certainly will have that effect. My point is, it's all about the same thing -- to make it impossible for Android to survive as it is, and now we will see litigation after litigation -- Apple has already filed another lawsuit against Samsung -- and the end result is to make Android cost more because of encrusting it with high royalty obligations, so it cuts into the vendors' profits sufficiently that it will end up making it undesirable to use. That's why, I believe, Apple offered licenses to Samsung on its first visit to discuss matters at such a high price. It would have cut Samsung's profits so radically, it would no longer make much sense to use Android. I think they had to know Samsung couldn't agree to that price. Apple itself is complaining about a much, much lower price for FRAND patents, after all, saying it can't afford to build its products with that price added. Did Microsoft pay that high price?

But, I hear you say, that's anticompetive behavior. Isn't that patent misuse? Misuse of the courts? I think it is. But I'm not a lawyer. And antitrust law is complicated, and thanks to folks who think business should be unregulated, it's a little bit toothless at the moment.

Time will tell how others view it, but I despise the strategy. The purpose of both copyright and patents is to encourage innovation and progress. The purpose of trade dress protection is to make sure consumers are not confused as to origin of goods and products. Design patents are supposed to protect only ornamental features, not functionality. None of it is supposed to be for the purpose of killing off newcomers to the market. Is it even Constitutional to use them that way? You tell me.

Remember too that Apple itself reaps benefits from Open Source software. It switched from its own software to OSX, which is BSD code. Why? Because it was better than what it had done itself. So it surely knows what FOSS can do. Now, it wants to make sure no one else can offer what it offers, even in such basic elements as rectangles with rounded corners and rows of brightly colored icons or ways to touch a tablet that are simply intuitive. Intuitive is just another word for obvious.

The reason Apple has gone scorched earth on the litigation front is because it is sorely losing the battle on the technology front and rapidly losing market share in an industry that's currently growing like a weed. Why should Apple even care if the industry is growing like a weed? Well, for starters, once that growth slows, Apple's growth slowdown will be amplified and levered several times. Think of growth using margin or gearing. If the market growth stagnates to near 0% growth, then Apple's growth could drastically reverse and go negative!!! Apple had better knock the upcoming iPhone 5 out of the ballpark, because if they don't Android will have captured nearly the entire smartphone market within a year. There will be no extra-normal profits stemming from network effects for iOS if there is no network! Just think about that. They are already at 64% global market share and growing faster than all of their competitors combined.

 Back the Gartner data...

,

Here's one of the reasons why...

Many people are still totally oblivious to exactly what it is that Google does. Here's a tutorial.

Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. 

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012

Google Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011

Google Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

Google Final Report 10/08/2010

An Analysis and Valuation of Google's Android and AdMob 09/27/2010 

Google Valuation Model 09/21/2010 

 Google's VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010

Google Cloud Based Services

Google TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives...

There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Unique, Indpendent and Accurate Apple Research

Apple 2Q2012 results analysis04/26/2012

Apple Margin & Valuation Note03/15/2012

Apple Margin Strategem WIP02/13/2012

Apple - Competition and Cost Structure05/16/2011

Apple Earnings Guidance Analysis08/12/2010

Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model08/03/2010

Apple business model note

 Apple Margin & Valuation Note

As excerpted: 

It is worth noting that the key assumptions that underline the above valuations – (1) iPhone continuing to witness stupendous growth *******  in 2012 and ****** 2013 over a larger base and (2) iPhone margins continue to remain healthy off stable prices and despite increase in material cost – should be keenly watched over the next couple of quarters. 

Then ask them bout the logical argument behind the concern with Apple and the extremely volatile price action of the last few weeks. As stated many times in the past, The BoomBustBlog argument and analysis is solid.

What else is there to the earnings announcement? Well we were absolutely correct in terms of the oncoming margin compression of the the product lines, something that was actually easy to see coming but many refused to admit. Of course, there will be those select few that say, "But wait, the company reported an INCREASE in margins while you said there will be a decrease!". Yes, that's true and both can exist simultaneously.

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Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_4Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_4

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As part of my ongoing series which I started in January of 2010 - Pan-European sovereign debt crisis, I detailed the rapidly developing financial malaise in Europe, detailing the risk to the larger more respected western European nations as well as their perceived profligate brethren to the south. One name popped up that analysts and media failed to harp on... Spain - at least back then. Now, people are wondering how Spain will handle its new found (at least to non-BoomBustBlog subscribers) funding crisis. To wit, and as excerpted from The Spain Pain Will Not Wane:

Professional subscribers can now actually download the original Spanish Bond Haircut Model that we used to calculate loss scenarios - Spain maturity extension_010610 (The Man's conflicted copy). Despite the fact I was probably the most realistically bearish out of the bunch, things have actually gotten materially worse since this model was constructed two years ago, hence it can use a refresh. Alas, it is still quite useful.

In the general subscriber document Spain public finances projections_033010, the first four (or 12) pages basically outline the gist of the Spanish problem today, to wit:

Spain_public_finances_projections_033010_Page_01Spain_public_finances_projections_033010_Page_01

Spain_public_finances_projections_033010_Page_02Spain_public_finances_projections_033010_Page_02

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The stress caused by Spain breaking the central bank will bring to full fruition the theory behind our European Banking and Insurance research from the last few quarters. All would do well to remember (and re-read, if need be),

This research, although over 2 years old, has proved to be quite useful and prophetic, till this very day. Ask the editors at CNBC as they ran this story: Spain Recession Deepens as Austerity Weighs

Spain's economy shrank further in the second quarter of the year and a slump in domestic spending accelerated, signaling a protracted recession as the country presses on with efforts to slash its public deficit.

Spain's economy fell back into recession in the first quarter of the year, when output fell 0.3 percent, and government estimates show GDP will probably fall for this year and next year as it pushes through further measures aimed at slashing a bloated deficit.Gross domestic product fell by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of the year, according to final data that confirmed a preliminary reading. But on an annual basis it dropped by 1.3 percent, worse than initial estimates of 1.0 percent.

The data came a day after Spain said its economy performed less well than expected in both of the last two years.

On Tuesday, the National Statistics Institute, INE, also revised down 2011 fourth quarter GDP to -0.5 percent from -0.3 percent.

Close to record high borrowing costs and an economy showing little sign of picking up any time soon is nudging Spain closer to calling for a European bailout, which analysts say is only a matter of time.

Those that follow me know that I have been warning on Europe and its banking system years before the sell side and mainstream financial media (reference the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series).

Well, fast forward to today's CNBC headlines and you get: Spaniards Pull More Money Out of Banks in July. What a surprise, eh? As excerpted:

A rush by consumers and firms to pull their money out of Spanish banks intensified in July, with private sector deposits falling almost 5 percent as Spain was sucked into the centre of the euro zone debt crisis. Private-sector deposits at Spanish banks fell to 1.509 trillion euros at end-July from 1.583 trillion in the previous month.

Hmmm!!! How's that bank run thingy work again? Oh yeah, as excerpted from the prophetic piece from July 23, 2011 - The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs! which detailed for my readers and subscribers the mechanics of the modern day bank run, particular as I see (saw) it occurring in Europe.

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 Related links:

• You Have Not Known Pain Until You've Tried To ... Jun 19, 2012 – The MSM reports Spanish Short-Term Debt Costs Reach Alarm Levels:Spain paid a euro era record price to sell short-term debt on Tuesday, ...

• CNBC Asks, "So Why Are Spanish Bond Yields ... Jun 15, 2012 – CNBC asks So Why Are Spanish Bond Yields Falling? Well, that's a good question. Short answer: Well rates spiked dramatically, and we are ...
• Surprise! Spain Makes The Same Ass-Backwards ...  Jul 23, 2012 – Spain has crossed the rubicon, and entered into bad decision nirvana as it too decided to ban short selling, which has worked so well for all of ...

• Here Comes That Contagion... From Greece to Belize to... Spain ... Aug 20, 2012 – renege Etymology From Latin renego, from nego (“deny”). Possibly influenced by renegotiate. See also renega...

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 On July 23, 2011 I penned The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs! which detailed for my readers and subscribers the mechanics of the modern day bank run, particular as I see (saw) it occurring in Europe.

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Those that follow me know that I have been warning on Europe and its banking system years before the sell side and mainstream financial media (reference the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series).

 A reader has convinced me to consult with him on a specific situation, regarding overseas monies and the (lack of) safety of those funds, which prompted me to dig up the Sovereign Contagion Model that we developed n 2010. In a nutshell, the Swiss banking industry was built upon impenetrable bank privacy for high net worth clients. Once the US decided it needed to boost its tax revenues during hard times, it literally collapse the Swiss hegemony in secret banking and left that banking industry to compete in actual banking versus asset concealment. This left Swiss banks naked, for they don't appear to me to truly be able to compete aggressively and successfully in other areas. 

Add to this mix potential contagion issues for the Swiss banking industry due to the fact that Switzerland has a veritable cornucopia of exposure all over the soon (if not already) serial recession ridden world, and well...

The first chart is raw contagion exposure as a % of GDP. The 2^nd chart is the same exposure ran through our “reality” model. Food for thought.

The BoomBustBlog Sovereign Contagion Model

Nearly every MSM analysts roundup attempts to speculate on who may be next in the contagion. We believe we can provide the road map, and to date we have been quite accurate. Most analysis looks at gross claims between countries, which of course can be very illuminating, but also tends to leave out many salient points and important risks/exposures.

Description: foreign claims of PIIGSforeign claims of PIIGSforeign claims of PIIGS

In order to derive more meaningful conclusions about the risk emanating from the cross border exposures, it is essential to closely scrutinize the geographical break down of the total exposure as well as the level of risk surrounding each component. We have therefore developed a Sovereign Contagion model which aims to quantify the amount of risk weighted foreign claims and contingent exposure for major developed countries including major European countries, the US, Japan and Asia major.

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I.          Summary of the methodology

·         We have followed a bottom-up approach wherein we have first identified the countries/regions with high financial risk either owing to rising sovereign risk (ballooning government debt and fiscal deficit) or structural issues including remnants from the asset bubble collapse, declining GDP, rising unemployment, current account deficits, etc. For the purpose of our analysis, we have selected PIIGS, CEE, Middle East (UAE and Kuwait), China and closely related countries (Korea and Malaysia), the US and UK as the trigger points of the financial risk dissemination across the analysed developed countries.

·         In order to quantify the financial risk emanating in the selected regions (trigger points), we looked into the probability of the risk event happening due to three factors - a) government default b) private sector default c) social unrest. The probabilities for each factor were arrived on the basis of a number of variables determining the relative weakness of the country. The aggregate risk event probability for each country (trigger point) is the average of the risk event probability due to the three factors.

·         Foreign claims of the developed countries against the trigger point countries were taken as the relevant exposure. The exposures of each developed country were expressed as % of its respective GDP in order to build a relative scale for inter-country comparison.

·         The risk event probability of the trigger point countries was multiplied by the respective exposure of the developed countries to arrive at the total risk weighted exposure of each developed country.

·          Sovereign Contagion Model - Retail - contains introduction, methodology summary, and findings

·          Sovereign Contagion Model - Pro & Institutional - contains all of the above as well as a very detailed methodology map that explains what went into the model across dozens of countries.

The bank run in other European nations:

Related Pan-European Sovereign Risk Non-bank Subscription Research Archives

·         Ireland public finances projections_040710

·         Spain public finances projections_033010

·         UK Public Finances March 2010

·         Italy public finances projection

·         Greece Public Finances Projections

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I believe I was one of the very few to declare Greece a foregone default in February 2010 (I Think It’s Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall and then with with more specificity a month later As I Explicitly Forewarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic!). By the 2nd quarter of 2010 I was one of the very few to clearly and articulately detail exactly how Greece would default with specific structures in play- What is the Most Likely Scenario in the Greek Debt Fiasco? Restructuring Via Extension of Maturity Dates. Due to a few institutions who were skeptical, I attempted to make it a bit more real - A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina.

Well, Greece defaulted according to plan, despite all of the "people in the know" saying otherwise - Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! - from government officials tothe EC and IMF - Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse! Even after the default, I made clear that this wasn't over for Greece, for the default actually left Greece worse off fundamentally, not better. Go wonder... I know I did, reference the warning from 5 months ago:

This will be exacerbated by a re-default of the Greek debt that was designed to bail out the defaulted Greek debt. Why will this happen? Greece has severe, rigid structural problems that simply cannot (and will not) be solved by throwing indebted liquidity at it. As a matter of fact, the additional debt simply exacerbates the problem - significantly! This was detailed in the post Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth!

This situation will simply get worse, considerably worse. I demonstrated in the post The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That'sToo Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media that anyone who purchased the last set of bailout bonds from Greece will simply lose their money as well (that's right, just like those who purchased the previous set) since Greece is still running deep in structural problems and can't afford the interest nor the principal on its borrowing. It's really that simple. 

Well, fastforward to Der Speigel as of yesterday, as I highlight some choice excerpts:

Athens has not been having an easy time coming up with the €11.5 billion in cost cutting measures over the next two years it has promised Europe. Indeed, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is reportedly set to request an additional two years to make those cuts... 

... the financing gap his country faces could be even greater. During its recent fact-finding trip to Athens, the so-called troika -- made up of representatives from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund -- found that Greece will have to come up with as much as €14 billion to meet the terms for international aid.

Methinks the Troika should renew their subscription to BoomBustBlog, for early in 2010 I noted their accuracy on the Greek situation...

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Notice how dramatically off the market the IMF has been, skewered HEAVILY to the optimistic side. Now, notice how aggressively the IMF has downwardly revised their forecasts to still end up wildly optimistic. image018.pngimage018.pngimage018.png

Ever since the beginning of this crisis, IMF estimates of government balance have been just as bad...

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The EU/EC has proven to be no better, and if anything is arguably worse!

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Revisions-R-US!

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and the EU on goverment balance??? Way, way, way off.

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If the IMF was wrong, what in the world does that make the EC/EU?

The EC forecasts have been just as bad, if not much, much worse in nearly all of the forecasting scenarios we presented. Hey, if you think tha's bad, try taking a look at what the government of Greece has done with these fairy tale forecasts...

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Alas, I digress. Back to the der Spegiel article...

According to a preliminary troika report, the additional shortfalls are the result of lower than expected tax revenues due to the country's ongoing recession as well as a privatization program which has not lived up to expectations. The troika plans to calculate the exact size of the shortfall when it returns to Athens at the beginning of next month.

I'm sorry, but I simply cannot resist. This article was posted on BoomBustBlog in July of 2011 - Greek Asset Sales Fall Short, As We Virtually Guaranteed They Would In Spring 2010. In it I reviewed how the BoomBustBlog team detailed EXACTLY how bullshit the privatization plan was, in explicit detail - in the spring of 2010. THAT WAS MORE THAN TWO AND A HALF YEARS AGO, PEOPLE!!! If a blog can have this much foresight, with this much specificity, than what does one make of this so-called troika??? As excerpted:

This is a tragic Greek comedy. Professional/institutional subscribers should reference the Greece Public Finances Projections 2010-03-15 11:33:27 694.35 Kb in its entirety. For those who chose not to subscribe, I am posting excerpts from pages 5 and 6 from said document, don't read this while eating or drinking for fear of spitting up your lunch!

Any subscribers who would have went heavily bearish into these banks when I first commented on the would have done quite well:

• •  Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
•  Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet

Okay, I digress - yet again... With such excessive bullshit, one does tend to get thrown off track. Back to the der Spiegel excerpts...

The news of the potentially greater financing needs comes at a sensitive time for the country. Many in Europe, particularly in Germany, are losing their patience and there has been increased talk of the country leaving the common currency zone. Over the weekend, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reiterated his skepticism of additional aid to Greece. "We can't put together yet another program," he said on Saturday, adding that it was irresponsible to "throw money into a bottomless pit."

Well, my friend, if you had that BoomBustBlog subscription, you would have known before you spent that first euro that Greece was a bottomless pit. Let me reiterated what I pasted up top... This situation will simply get worse, considerably worse. I demonstrated in the post The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That's Too Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media that anyone who purchased the last set of bailout bonds from Greece will simply lose their money as well (that's right, just like those who purchased the previous set) since Greece is still running deep in structural problems and can't afford the interest nor the principal on its borrowing. It's really that simple. And guess what? Anyone who dips new money into Greece now will suffer the EXACT same fate!

As excerpted from Greece Sneezes, The Euro Dies of Pneumonia! Yeah, Sounds Bombastic, Yet True!

Wait until a 2nd Greek default (virtually guaranteed as we supplied user downloadable models to see for yourself, the same model used to forecast the 1st default) mirrors history. Of the 181 yrs as a sovereign nation after gaining independence, Greece been in default 58 of them. Don't believe me! Check your history, or just read more BoomBustBlog - Sophisticated Ignorance Or Just A Very, Very Short Term Memory? Foolish Talk of German Bailouts Once Again...

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Greece's default will hit an already bank NPA laden Spain quite hard: The Spain Pain Will Not Wane: Continuing the Contagion Saga and ditto with Italy "As We Assured Clients Two Years Ago, Italy's Riding The Broken Promise Express To Restructuring". Once Italy gets hit, the true bank runs will start as socialist France (the so-called half of the EU anchor) loses control of its bankinsg system. Reference "As The French Bank Runs....": 

Saturday, 23 July 2011 The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs!: I detail how I see modern bank runs unfolding

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renege  

Etymology

From Latin renego, from nego (“deny”). Possibly influenced by renegotiate. See also renegade.

The question Du Jour is,,,,, Will reneging be the fiscal management policy of the new millennium? Can you blame those who even try? Are they wrong? Now that Greece has set the precedent of just not paying its bills, the floodgates are open. Don't be fooled if just a few drops of water come out at first!

My posts from last year...

The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That'sToo Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media

My readers and subscribers know that I have been warning that Greece would guaranteedly default as far back as two years ago. As a matter of fact, I stated that the haircut needed would have to be around the 53% mark in order for Greece's economy to truly cash flow again, and that was two years ago when things were much, much better for the country. Now the issue has metastasized into something much worse. How much worse? Well, it's safe to say the situation is at least twice as bad. That being said, twice times 53% means 60, 70, even 75% NPV haircuts just won't cut the mustard. Since this is already a forgone conclusion, I will now release the research and economic models that have been available to BoomBustBlog professional subscribers two years ago (March 2010), take notice how prescient, how crystal balllish it all seems..

Contagion Should Be The MSM Word Du Jour, Not Bailouts and Definitely Not Greece!

In continuing with my rant on the absurdity of even pretending the Greek situation is salvageable or that Greece will somehow be bailed out without a near complete absolution of their debts, I  bring forth from the BoomBustBlog archives the Sovereign Contagion Model. For those who haven't read my most posts on this topic, please review The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That's Too Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media and Grecian Tragedy Formula, Bailout Number 3.

It is my contention that Greece's significant default is a forgone conclusion. It is also my contention that media attention should be much more focused on the damage to be done by a Greek default - considerably more so than whether Greece will ultimately default of not or what type of bailout it may or may not recieve. I have been of this mindset for several years which is why I had my analyst team create the Sovereign Contagion Model below.

foreign claims of PIIGS

Germany's Sophisticated Ignorance Doesn't Even Look Sophisticated Anymore

Surprise! Spain Makes The Same Ass-Backwards Mistake That The US and UK Made - Banning Shortselling

http://usawatchdog.com - The stock market rallied on news the European debt crisis is on its way to being fixed, but is it really? Not a chance, says today's guest. Reggie Middleton of BoomBustblog.com says, "Europe is insolvent," and nothing is fixed. Middleton contends, "Collapse in Europe is absolutely unavoidable. It's a foregone conclusion." Why should you listen to this entrepreneurial investor? He has made many stunning calls. He said Bear Stearns was insolvent when its stock was trading for well over $100 per share. He warned about Lehman Brothers and predicted the financial crisis of 2008 long before they happened. Now, he says, "Europe is coming to the end of the road very soon," and a "system crash is the only way to fix the problem." Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com goes "One-on-One" with Reggie Middleton.