Trends in US Retail

We have looked into insurance companies' performance last month in regards to our bearish real estate thesis. A small comederie of companies are suffering losses and/or declining profits as we've exected. This is due primarily to increases in their expense and reduction in revenue.

Published in BoomBustBlog
Sunday, 26 October 2008 21:00

Insurance sector update

This is the timely insurance sector update for paying subscribers. The subject company of this update reports in a couple of days so I decided to issue an update to inform subscribers on where I stand in regards to this company's prospects. A more formal report will be issued once I have a chance to congeal my projections and assumptions with the company's stated results. One thing is for sure, things don't look good. They may be able to push off reporting the inevitable this quarter (although I doubt it), but they will have to pay the piper eventually since they are in the eye of the perfect storm.

This update also exemplifies the extreme value to be had in the professional subscriptions. I decided to dump a portion of my model's inventory markdown and calculation engine results into the pro addendum to exemplify and illustrate how much high level thought and resources go into the analysis of these various subject companies. Keep in mind this is just the inventory calcluation, which is included because althought operations and premium cycles are weakening singificantly, this company's Achille's heel is trashy investment inventory. The retail summary is 7 pages while the pro summary is 44 pages. 

I will decide, after reviewing the reported numbers, whether I will pursue this company farther. Subscribers can access the research via the following links, Adobe v. 9+ required. Good luck!

pdf  10/25/08 Insurance Industry Update - retail (335.44 kB 2008-10-27 02:57:00)

document  10/25/08 Insurance Industry Update - Professional w/inventory addendum (7.5 MB 2008-10-27 03:00:37)