LedgerX's "SOLIDX BITCOIN TRUST" has an approval deadline this March 30th, 2017.If it is approved, Bitcoin is due for one hell of a bump, but...

LedgerX S1 filing for Bitcoin ETF the index pt 3 

Published in BoomBustBlog

Someone with over 53 years on Wall Street sent me this article from Lex of the Financial Times...

FT Lex articel on butcoin ETF

Published in BoomBustBlog

 The Winkelvoss ETF application was rejected by the SEC, and bitcoin dropped about 20% in price. I repetitively warned those that followed me that a very low risk buying opportunity will present itself should the SEC deny the ETF application. Like clockwork, instant 30% profit opp. If you were monitoring hte prices and bought in after prices started rising (almost immediately) the buy returned over $250/coin (~30%) for anyone who took my advice.

ETF SEC buy the dip 

Published in BoomBustBlog

I will start posting more news topics of interest and welcome readers to forward research and investment ideas at will. Here is the crop from last week. I will post topics from the weekend later on today, and as usual will randomly comment on daily news events.

From Alliance Bernstein:

  • Core Intermediate Producer Prices have taken 6 months to rise 5.2% annualized, recession of 2002 took 2 years to reach same level
  • Operating Rate hit low of 65.4% last year and has only risen to 69.4%, still short of historical threshold causing rise in raw material prices (74%)
  • Increases in foreign operating rates have started to indicate US may now be a price follower instead of price leader
  • The Fed cited lack of resource utilization as reasoning for maintaining record low rates, as these concerns begin to wane Alliance Bernstein sees easing of emergency Fed policy

Bloomberg.com:

  • Christina Romer, Peter Orszag, and Tim Geithner have predicted unemployment will settle in 2010 at around 9.7%, citing poor job conditions
  • Federal deficit projections for 2011 & 2015 are $1.5 trillion & $751 billion respectively, White House officials cite Bush's medicare and income tax cuts for allowing deficit insanity
Published in BoomBustBlog
Thursday, 21 January 2010 23:00

Follow Up to the China Short Thesis Debate

I have included ETFs that have exposure to the industries discussed in the post "Some Light Shown on My Developing China Thesis". The list of ETFs can be found here: pdf Chinese ETFs with Exposure to Real Estate, Banks, Insurance and Export Industrials 2010-01-22 02:27:03 377.96 Kb.

The subscriber download to the aforementioned post is pdf "A Note On Potential Short Opportunity Opinions in China 2010-01-21 01:13:06 475.18 Kb " which is available to retail and pro Subscribers as a 6 page PDF document, Pro subscribers are invited to the discussion/debate between myself and my analysts
on the merits of the China short as it compares to the up and coming
European Sovereign Crisis short opportunities I will be publishing very
soon (a preview is available here:
Deflation, Inflation or Stagflation - You Be the Judge! - please excuse the fact that I compressed several European nations into EU charts).

I want it to be known that we are still formulating the empirical thesis behind the short, but I have decided to keep all subscribers abreast of the deliberations in real time, as well as offering the tools that I would use to take action if I deemed it prudent.

Published in BoomBustBlog
Thursday, 21 January 2010 18:00

Follow Up to the China Short Thesis Debate

I have included ETFs that have exposure to the industries discussed in the post "Some Light Shown on My Developing China Thesis". The list of ETFs can be found here: pdf  Chinese ETFs with Exposure to Real Estate, Banks, Insurance and Export Industrials 2010-01-22 02:27:03 377.96 Kb.

The subscriber download to the aforementioned post is pdf "A Note On Potential Short Opportunity Opinions in China 2010-01-21 01:13:06 475.18 Kb " which is available to retail and pro Subscribers as a 6 page PDF document, Pro subscribers are invited to the discussion/debate between myself and my analysts on the merits of the China short as it compares to the up and coming European Sovereign Crisis short opportunities I will be publishing very soon (a preview is available here: Deflation, Inflation or Stagflation - You Be the Judge! - please excuse the fact that I compressed several European nations into EU charts).

I want it to be known that we are still formulating the empirical thesis behind the short, but I have decided to keep all subscribers abreast of the deliberations in real time, as well as offering the tools that I would use to take action if I deemed it prudent.

Thursday, 21 January 2010 18:00

Follow Up to the China Short Thesis Debate

I have included ETFs that have exposure to the industries discussed in the post "Some Light Shown on My Developing China Thesis". The list of ETFs can be found here: pdf  Chinese ETFs with Exposure to Real Estate, Banks, Insurance and Export Industrials 2010-01-22 02:27:03 377.96 Kb.

The subscriber download to the aforementioned post is pdf "A Note On Potential Short Opportunity Opinions in China 2010-01-21 01:13:06 475.18 Kb " which is available to retail and pro Subscribers as a 6 page PDF document, Pro subscribers are invited to the discussion/debate between myself and my analysts on the merits of the China short as it compares to the up and coming European Sovereign Crisis short opportunities I will be publishing very soon (a preview is available here: Deflation, Inflation or Stagflation - You Be the Judge! - please excuse the fact that I compressed several European nations into EU charts).

I want it to be known that we are still formulating the empirical thesis behind the short, but I have decided to keep all subscribers abreast of the deliberations in real time, as well as offering the tools that I would use to take action if I deemed it prudent.

... but are resuming there slide downward. I have attached a (dated) spreadsheet that decomposes the US publicly traded Asian ETFs that may be of interest to those who want exposure to this sector but don't want to go through the trouble of individual stock. The sheet breaks down sector concentrations and top 10 holdings for each fund.

China

In
China, inflation declined from a 12-year high of 8.7% in February 2008
to 4.9% in August. Though inflation has come off highs, it is mainly
driven by food prices. The growth in food prices declined to 10.3%
y-o-y in August 2008 from 14.4% in July, keeping inflation high.
Inflation is likely to decline further as commodity and fuel prices
across the globe regress. The caveat is that we see China's growth
slowing much faster than the reprieve in inflation. See the
China-specific sections of The Butterfly is released!, Global Recession - an economic reality, and my China Macro update accented by media accounts.

pdf Asian ETF Spreadsheet (91 kB 2008-11-07 04:23:32)

Published in BoomBustBlog