Monday, 20 March 2017 10:50

When It Comes Time To Show and Prove, Equity Markets May Drop Hard Featured

The markets have gotten euphoric since the Trump election, apparently because someone believed what he was selling. Take a look at the broad market jump (powered greatly by the bank jump), and even more unbelievably the bank index jump.

banks out of control

 

Bloomberg reports "G-20 Drops Anti-Protectionist Pledge as Price of U.S. Assent". Long story short, here comes global protectionism as countries attempt to deal with the lead that Trump's administration has wrought. Don't believe what is said, believe what is done.  US Trade balance

 As free trade comes under pressure, you see the many campaign promises of the new administration get pushed back or outrigh fall to the wayside. Reference our post from earlier this month (First 45 days of Presidency: Efficiency Fact Check Shows Us What to Expect Regarding Policy) and you'll notice that from an efficacy perspective, it is highly unlikely that Trump will be able to push through the infrastructure spending and tax cuts that he proposed in the near future. That means that the markets have gotten way ahead of themselves - particularly as it seems that protectionist trade policies are likely to do much more harm than good.

Hence, back to the query posed last month:.Is Time to Short America? Macro Risks + Unpredictable Administration / Geopolitical Uncertainty = ? and Is It Time to Short America?, Part 2: Crony Capitalism Leads to Socioeconomic Stratification - the Rich Get Richer!

Last modified on Monday, 20 March 2017 11:30

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