Thursday, 16 March 2017 16:34

A Bitcoin ETF or Similar Regulated Institutional Vehicle is a Forgone Conclusion - What Happens Next? Featured

Someone with over 53 years on Wall Street sent me this article from Lex of the Financial Times...

FT Lex articel on butcoin ETF

his article is full of errors and misconceptions. I clarified most of them last week in "Why the Wineklvoss Bitcoin ETF Was Rejected and How to Create a Regulated Vehicle That Passes Muster". In said article I demonstrated that China doesn't have the majority of trade volume. That's just WRONG!

The SEC's problem with Gemini's market reach is easily rectified by thier not trying to be so vertically stack and sharing liquidity with other exchanges - something that will likely have to happen anyway. As you can see, bitcoin exchange trading in its totality, represents a very small portion of bitcoin trading.

BTC exch vs outstanding 

Most BTC trades are P2P and/or OTC. Lest the SEC complain about that, real estate is handled the same way (and unregulated) yet there are plenty of real estate ETFs. Now, despite the fact that most BTC is traded OTC, you can still buy your BTC at or close to exchange prices. Yes, a large purchase may create some slippage, gaps and spreads, but that is the same nature of any thinly traded market - and BTC is much more liquid than most - again, referencing the real estate market. No market maker in commercial real estate can be assured he can pick up office building or condo units at a certain price or spread, or even the entire complex.

The fact that Lex is comparing Bitcoin to cannabis shows a material misunderstanding of what bitcoin is. Silicon Valley gets it, which is why Microsoft, IBM, et. al. are jumping on board (bitcoin is more akin to the Internet than it is to weed), but the finance guys in the east are still behind the curve. Unfortunately, it appears the finance guys in the east don't even understand the financial portions of Bitcoin. Reference my educational articles from the recent past. After reading what is essentially Fake News about Bitcoin from Financial Times, London Business School and Credit Suisse, I have created an easy to understand metric that allows anyone to compare the risks and rewards of Bitcoin to basically any currency, commodity, stock or asset class.

Now, taking into consideration the (properly) risk-adjusted reward of bitcoin relative to most major asset classes, one can easily understand why smart institutional investors would want some exposure - hence the rush to build ETFs. Take a look at what will happen to bitcoin prices if such ETFs were to be approved.

BTC price increase from ETF Demand

You see, the introduction of even a small ETF will set the Bitcoin platform on FIRE!

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Last modified on Thursday, 16 March 2017 17:55

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