Thursday, 11 July 2013 06:14

Thoughts on Glass, Fashion, Fads, Moto X and Samsung's Phenomenal Yet Brief Trip To The Top Featured

As I canvass NYC to gauge acceptance of ‪#‎Glass‬, ample evidence the device sexier than it is nerdy abounds.CAM00841 copy

At the end of the day, it's who you are and not what you wear that makes you feel confident, secure, and/or attractive. Those that say they feel silly wearing #Glass may rely too much on what they are wearing and not enough on who they are. With that being said, fashion is a key selling aspect, but as #Apple can attest, fashion is tantamount to fad and what's in this year is often out the next. Difficult to build a tech business model that lasts on such a framework. #Android proves functionality and superior business model will reign supreme longer term over focusing on fashtion sense.

On a separate, yet related note - numbers are coming out for the price, parameters and terms of Google's new Moto X customizable smart phone. It is allegedly highly customizable upon order, deliverable upon days, works with all major providers and unlocked, equipped with the best camera on the market, have the best battery life on the market and will sport both a $500 million advertising budget and a $250 price tag. That's right! $250! That's the complete purchase price, not the down payment to enter a contract. 

As per the WSJ: Google To Spend $500 Million To Market Moto X Phone

It’s set to spend $500 million or more marketing the showcase smartphone of itsMotorola Mobility MMI NaN% unit, according to a report late Monday in the Wall StreetJournal. Such a sum would easily top the mobile device marketing budgets of both Apple AAPL -0.38% and Samsung, the runaway market leaders in smartphones.

Apple and Samsung have the benefit of sizable marketing budgets. The two companies spent $333 million and $401 million, respectively, to advertise mobile devices in the U.S. last year, according to Kantar Media, a unit of WPP PLC. Google may end up spending more money than that on the Moto X phone alone, people familiar with the matter said.

Motorola's Mr. Woodside, speaking at The Wall Street Journal's D technology conference earlier this year, discussed some features of the Moto X, including its long battery life and ability to be "contextually aware," meaning it will adjust to its surroundings.

For instance, the device's sensors will know when a person is driving and automatically offer them the ability to give voice commands to get information from the device, including making calls or getting directions, said a person familiar with the matter. Mr. Woodside also said the device will be able to sense when a person is trying to take photograph and help them bring up the camera app more quickly.

Motorola also is hoping to appeal to consumers by letting them customize the device. In addition to being sold in wireless carrier stores, the device will be sold online, where people can choose from different colors for its back panel and front-panel trim. Customers also will be able to have a written engraving on the back of the device, similar to what Apple offers to customers of iPod music devices and iPad tablets—but not the iPhone.

From the


If the specifications don't impress, it's because Motorola is set to go after an affordable price point with the Moto X. As Woodside pointed out on stage at D11, off-contract smartphone prices have hardly budged since the original iPhone, and the company thinks it can carve out its own market of "high-quality, low cost" devices between $650 smartphones and $30 feature phones. From the rumored specifications we expect the Moto X could sell for as little as $199 off-contract.

Eventhough Google Has Officially Gone On Record To Confirm Reggie Middleton's "Negative Margin Business Model" Tactics, I still want all to rember that I warned about Samsung's fall earlier this year just as I forecast their rise against Apple (Deconstructing The Most Accurate Apple Analysis Ever Made - Share Price, Market Share, Strategy and All)!

Friday, 15 March 2013 Samsung's Galaxy S4 Flagship Device Is Outed, What Does It Mean For The Industry? SoothSayer Speaks Truth To Tech!

As I State Previously, Apple Is Done, Samsung Sets the Bar, and Hardware Still Looks To Be A Razor Margin Business In a Few Years If Not Less.

Thursday, 07 March 2013 Samsung Will Be Ready To Do That Fruit Thing, Just Like Blackberry & Apple - Courtesy Of Google, #MarginCompression!

Two and a half years ago I declared in my mobile computing wars series that Google would commoditize the mobile computing space. Four months ago, I reiterated that assertion in Smartphone Hardware Manufacturers Are Dead and did so yet again the following month in Computer Hardware Vendors Are Dead, Part Deux! These premonitions cover not only the obvious also rans and marginal companies who's management complained about losing the forest due to tree bark obstruction, but the very darlings of the industry as well. This includes the "used to be" market darling Apple (What Sell Side Wall Street Doesn't Understand About Apple - It's Not The Leader Of The Post PC World!!!) and even the current reigning champion, Samsung. That's right, I said it! Samsung! Hey, I'll say it again just to drive the point home, Samsung! How and why is that, you ask? Well, the same Google Android generated, creative destruction pathogen that brings us such great technology at such a rapid pace at such quickly diminishing prices that has wiped out those companies that I have warned of so extravagantly doesn't just disappear when your current market darling get's knocked off its perch. Let's recap & excerpt the link above so we can clearly isolate the common thread...

So, you ask, "How is it that hardware is dead?" Well....

    1. The open source OS paradigm calls for rapidly improving hardware specs at ever lower prices. I have pointed to evidence of this above, as these Asian OEMs produce ever better product at ever lower prices - just like the old school PC industry. This drives Google's info-centric business model which is why Google pushes free Android.
    2. After years of outsourcing manufacturing tech and IP integration to low cost labor Asian countries, those countries have found a way to produce trinkets of their own. Of limited quality and value so you say? Well, remember the iPhone is a Chinese phone, through and through -at least Chinese built. So now you argue, it's American designed, just Chinese made! Please peruse the Oppo Finder 5, a phone that's drastically superior to the iPhone 5 in practically every single way, retailing for $100 less than the cheapest iPhone 5 made. Low cost, low margin products combined with Google's free OS will drive the price of hardware down to near zero, if not negative. Google even has its own hardware arm now (Motorola) to facilitate this downward march in margins and prices. Suppose Google decides to create best of breed Nexus devices and give them away just below cost? Imagine the best smartphone available in the world, unlocked, without a contract, for the cost of a single monthly wireless phone payment??? Google's Nexus program is acting as a training ground to teach Google's Motorola division to build best of breed! Google's biggest and most successful partner - Samsung, is an Asian company. Samsung Electronics of South Korea reported today that its quarterly profit  jumped 76%, as its Galaxy smartphones beat rival Apple's iPhone in each quarter of 2012. What many seem to have missed is that EBITDA, Operating and Gross margins all slipped QonQ though. A sign of things to come??? Remember, Google benefits most when the barriers to access information are least. Reference "Cost Shifting Your Way To Prominence Using The Network Effect, Or Google Wins - Apple, RIM & Microsoft Have ALREADY LOST!" as well as my videos below...

 So, let's revisit Glass. Glass is a cool device, but from a hardware perspective, it's not expensive to build once engineered. If the Moto X can be sold for $200, that will likely be the ceiling for Glass, which would probably be sold for less if subsidized by Google. Throw in a half billion dollar ad budget (Glass is already extremely popular and is not advertised or even for sale yet) and you have a definite game changer in the mix.

Imagine if these computer glasses that changes the way we do everything sold for $150, with the full marketing awareness powers of Google behind them. Uh Oh, it's a whole new world.

Glass vs iPhone subsidized

Subscribers, click the following links for my updated price targets on Google (click here to subscribe) and read  Google Q2 2013 Update: Valuing Possibly The Most Powerful Co. In The World?:

The biggest risks to these price points are:

  1. A market that's being levitated by central bank magicians running short on magic spells...
  2. Regulatory pressure, which I feel is quite material and inevitable, but will not be a major factor in the near term. 
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