Tuesday, 07 May 2013 13:53

It's Not Just Reggie Warning Irishmen Anymore As Irish Presidency of the European Council Says Capital At Risk Featured

Kiss Those Euros GoodbyeAs of today, all of the puzzle pieces for an Irish government cum ECB via Germany confiscation of Irish bank depositor money is in place. The first piece, Irish bank insolvency was clearly identified and articulated in "If I Provide Proof That The Entire Irish Banking System Is A Sham, Does It Set Up A Much Needed System Reboot? Let's Go For It... I drove the point home even further as the Irish PTB start to admit that their banks need to be recapitalized, in "The Beginning Of The Great Irish Unwind?!?!?!". The second piece of the puzzle is the political will to actually sacrifice bank depositors, clearly illustrated in "As Forewarned, The Irish Savers Have Just Been "Cyprus'd", And There's MUCH MORE "Cyprusing" To Come". Now as of today, we have the final piece, the legal mechanism - which allegedly is just being debated but in reality is already in place. The template has already been established with Cyprus, ala "EU Bank Depositors: Your Mattress Is Starting To Look Awfully Attractive - Bank Risk, Reward & Compensation".

The Irish are about to see their deposits above the 100k euro insured limit hit risk heretofore unseen. You see, weeks after my many warnings of Irishmen and women at financial risk, the Irish presidency of the European Council put forth a proposal to do just what I warned of ahead a key meeting of finance ministers next week. Whats of even more importance is the fact that, as in Cyprus, EU states have NOT ruled out the possibility of confiscating bank deposits below the EU insured limit of 100k euro. This means that there is far from a AAA credit covering your deposits. It almost happened a month or so ago, and nobody wants to rule put the potential of it happening again. Now, on to the news piece that has confirmed my many warnings, the last piece of the puzzle - from the Irish Times: Bank deposits of over €100,000 may be at risk...

Deposits of over €100,000 are likely to be hit in the event of future European bank collapses, according to a proposal put forward by the Irish presidency of the European Council ahead of a key meeting of finance ministers next week.

Discussions on the controversial bank resolution regime, which is likely to see savers with deposits over €100,000 “bailed in” as part of future bank wind-downs, are due to intensify this week in Brussels, ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, which will be chaired by Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan.

Under a compromise text proposed by the Irish presidency, uninsured deposits of over €100,000 would be bailed in in the event that a bank is resolved, but depositors would rank higher than other creditors in the event of a wind-down. In this scenario – known as “deposit preference” – depositors would rank at the very end of the process, with other creditors first absorbing losses.

"In this scenario – known as “deposit preference” – depositors would rank at the very end of the process, with other creditors first absorbing losses." Absolute non-sense. Simply smoke and mirrors for those who don't know any better. The only reason for there to be a wind-down in the first place is that there is no equity left in the bank. With gearing in the European banking model what it is, and the dearth of transparent (non-fraudulent) reporting what it is (see If I Provide Proof That The Entire Irish Banking System Is A Sham, Does It Set Up A Much Needed System Reboot? Let's Go For It...), the chances of there being any recovery is somewhere between zilch and nil, give or take a euro or two - reference LGD 100+: What's the Possibility of Certain European Banks Having a Loss Given Default Approaching 100%? and The Anatomy of a Serial European Banking Collapse to realize that once a counter party driven bank run starts, there may be less than nothing to divy up in the end. Lehman Brothers' US creditors received roughly 10 to 40 cents on the dollar, but after 5 years of wrangling, the European International arm was full repaid. Hey, do you feel lucky with your life savings? Even if you do feel lucky, you'll still need 5 years to spare and a ton of cash for legal fees.

However, some member states have not ruled out the possibility that insured deposits, i.e. deposits under €100,000, would be forced to bear losses in the event of a bank collapse even though these deposits would be likely to be protected by the deposit guarantee scheme.

As stated earlier, this ain't AAA coverage!

This year Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the group of 17 euro zone finance ministers, said that losses on bondholders and depositors could form part of future bank bailouts as euro zone officials seek to move the burden of bailouts away from taxpayers – as was the case in the Irish bailout – and on to private investors.

The European Commission argues that this switch from so-called “bailouts” to “bail-ins” would result in an allocation of losses that would not be worse than the losses that shareholders and creditors would have suffered in regular insolvency proceedings that apply to other private companies.

Ahem, that non-sense only works on the uneducated and/or the unassuming. The major difference is that creditors that would be subject to regular dissolution proceedings AND that are unsecured, would demand considerably higher rates of return. A borderline solvent bank whose officers AND regulators admit publicly is in need of additional capital infusions after receiving three thus far, and 96% losses in its publicly traded equity, would have to borrow money at 18%, not 2% - and that's being generous. See the bank deposit rate calculator below.

While the inclusion of large savers in future bank bailouts is now widely accepted, significant differences still remain between member states.

While the new rules governing bank resolution were first intended to come into place in 2018, since the Cypriot bailout there have been calls from senior EU figures such as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and EU economics affairs commissioner Olli Rehn to introduce the new regime as early as 2015.

The Irish presidency of the European Council is hoping to reach a common position by the end of next month.

The little app below calculates what return you should expect to receive to take on the risk of a potential 40% haircut. The second tab offers what recent Cyprus bank rates were. Do you see a disparity???

 Other hard hitting pieces on the resurgent EU banking crisis

 

Last modified on Tuesday, 07 May 2013 16:20

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