As I Promised, EU Is Colliding Into Prac…

17-01-2017 Hits:384 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

As I Promised, EU Is Colliding Into Practical Confines of NIRP, Bank Hemorrhaging Up Next

Nearly a year ago, I warned subscribers of consequences stemming from the ECB's negative interest rate program. Here's an exceprt from our resarch report titled European Banking Macro Issues for March...

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Is Bitcoin Too Risky? Whenever the Bitco…

12-01-2017 Hits:1134 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Is Bitcoin Too Risky? Whenever the Bitcoin is Mentioned in Financial Pop Media, Ignorance Ensues

I hate to be the one to break bad news to you, but most of the pop media/mainstream media financial pundits that I hear and see opine on bitcoin have...

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What Happens When Rates Rise While the S…

10-01-2017 Hits:627 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When Rates Rise While the S&P 500 Relies on Cheap Credit To Boost EPS?

So, the stock market, bond market and real estate markets are all at all-time highs. Everything is Awesome! You know better than that. You see, when the bond market wakes...

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Debt Encumbered Oil, Sovereign Soil, Toi…

10-01-2017 Hits:509 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Debt Encumbered Oil, Sovereign Soil, Toil & Trouble: Can't You Hear Seems Cracking in the OPEC Empire?

@WSJ reports Libya Ramping Up Oil Production, Threatening OPEC (supposed) Plans to lift global oil place by artificially limiting supply. This would be in violation of federal antii-trust laws in the...

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Ten Years Since BoomBustBlog Was 1st Pub…

09-01-2017 Hits:817 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Ten Years Since BoomBustBlog Was 1st Published & That Initial Research Still Relevant Today

We have looked into insurance companies' performance last month in regards to our bearish real estate thesis. A small comederie of companies are suffering losses and/or declining profits as we've exected....

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The Macro Truth About The Big Bitcoin Po…

07-01-2017 Hits:980 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bitcoin has dropped precipitously, and as is usual, we have the cacophony of instant digital currency pundits cackling about as if they had a clue. This is the inaugural post...

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To Bust or Not To Bust: Are We In A Real…

04-01-2017 Hits:690 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

To Bust or Not To Bust: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Banks are showing thin NIM, yet many of the big banks are able to boast stable if not slightly improving credit metrics. This doesn’t make sense considering the explosive growth...

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What Happens To Real Asset Lending Banks…

03-01-2017 Hits:533 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens To Real Asset Lending Banks When the Real Funding Rate Appears? We're About to Find Out

During the financial crisis of 2008, money market funds who subjectively agreed to hold their NAV (net asset value) unit prices at $1 “broke the buck”. That is, the unit...

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Stress Test on Banks’ Earnings Facing th…

30-06-2014 Hits:44635 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Stress Test on Banks’ Earnings Facing the Veritaseum UltraCoin Value Transaction Platform

My last post on the topic of disintermediation during a paradigm shift was Wall Street Should Be First To Invest In Reggie Middleton's UltraCoin, Much Of It Won't Be Here In...

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Introducing the "Unbreakable Promis…

09-06-2014 Hits:39469 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Introducing the "Unbreakable Promise" As a Method Increasing Efficiencies and Decreasing Risk

Continuing on the margin compression theme originally laid out in Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups, I illustrate mathematically how the bit...

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Bitcoin (and Apple) Mythbusting 101

04-06-2014 Hits:40374 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bitcoin (and Apple) Mythbusting 101

Yesterday, I did a radio interview with Benzinga. In it I busted myths about Apple, Bitcoin and Coins in general (ABCs). Listen to the interview below and the info sheets...

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Bitcoin (and Apple) Mythbusting 101

04-06-2014 Hits:44977 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bitcoin (and Apple) Mythbusting 101

Yesterday, I did a radio interview with Benzinga. In it I busted myths about Apple, Bitcoin and Coins in general (ABCs). Listen to the interview below and the info sheets...

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I have been offline for awhile. I am in Nashville for the student national chess championships with my 8 year old son. I see many are, rightfully, concerned about this unprecedented (the greatest in the history of the markets, if I am not mistaken) rally that has proven rather unprofitable for bears.

Well, keep in mind that no one is right all of the time and there is a decent chance that I may not be right this time. With that being said, I have not been materially incorrect since this asset securitization crisis started, and I don't believe that I am incorrect now. I warned the blog (through the comments section) that I was bracing for a violent bear market rally, actually on the eve before the rally. I didn't mean (or know) that it would be the most violent market rally ever, but the fundamentals and the facts remain unchanged. I consistently warn all to take profits often, while maintaining positions and to take manageable positions in sizes where you can afford it to go against you and still have staying power. I also preach the virtues of going for the medium to long term horizons versus trying to speculate on short term price movements, which literally puts you at the mercy of unpredictable market swings, versus things that are more predictable such as cash flow shortages, covenant defaults, etc.

Stock prices are again diverging, significantly, from their fundamental values. Each time that has happened in the history of the markets, they have reverted to the mean - in other words, reality strikes.

I am hurt by this extreme rally, but I was expecting and prepared for it, going into it with a 65% cash position. I have lost a couple of months profit, but am still up well over 650% for the 22 month trailing period. I feel that, if I am prepared, a significant drop is coming and will be particularly violent, as the lack of cash flows, solvency, earnings and debt servicing ability meets the shares prices of marginal companies that have doubled or better in price. There is no more likely time for this to happend than earnings season. Keep in mind that banks have it in their cards to write deceptively optimistic accounting earnings, but it is still my opinion (and obviously that of our governments), that many of them still quite insolvent.

 On a separate note, the private subscription forums are open for beta use:

  1. Retail Subscriber Private Forum
  2. Professional Subscriber Private Forum
  3. Institutional Subscriber Private Forum

Feel free to discuss whatever you want with other members of your subscription level. Please let customer relations (in the "contact us" menu at the top of the site) know of any usability issues you may have. Enjoy, and I will be back posting full strength at the end of the tournament, most likely Monday evening.

I have started updating all of my banking research to reflect the potential effects of PPIP on asset value write downs and spreads. Goldmans Sachs till be first up, and I have a reinsurer to report on as well (which has skyrocketed in price), as well as a little bit on the education sector.