Wednesday, 13 May 2009 01:00

Significant subscriber content is being released

I would like to remind subscribers that they should check the subscriber download section for new releases regularly. Over the last 38 hours, two REIT quarterly updates and a banking update has been released. There is plenty more in the pipeline along with a recast of the banking models populated with the Fed's "real data".

Last modified on Wednesday, 13 May 2009 01:00


  • Comment Link kavin Friday, 15 May 2009 23:14 posted by kavin

    Thanks for the information sir.



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  • Comment Link dkn Wednesday, 13 May 2009 22:45 posted by dkn

    good stuff. i would also add a note from denninger here:

    [quote]There are reports from across the country that banks have been sending out NODs but then sitting on the process, effectively hiding the fact that these loans have gone bad and will be foreclosed, in some cases allowing people to live in these homes without making a payment for up to a year!

    The various "moratoriums" have been claimed to be responsible. Balderdash. What is responsible for this is intentional sandbagging by the banks who have two separate but interlocked perverse incentives to do this:

    They are praying that home values recover, so they do not have to take such a big loss (what's actually happening is the prices are continuing to go down, making the loss worse!) and
    They are holding these notes at full face value on their books; if they foreclose and sell the property they are forced to mark the note to the market based on recovery value as recognized in a sale. If they do that many of these banks would be instantaneously recognized as insolvent.

    Let's remember that back on October of 2008 I noted that Wells Fargo had changed the definition of "delinquent" loans from 120 days without a payment to 180 days. This allowed them to report that quarter while booking delinquent only one in three of the loans that went bad during that period in time!

    The same game has been played by all of these banks with respect to actual foreclosures. By refusing to actually proceed from NOD to foreclosure in the most expeditious fashion permitted by law the banks are gaming their results and balance sheets, and the perversity of this in the broader economy leads to not only overstated bank results but also overstated consumer purchasing power, as those who are living in a house they stopped paying for - effectively having their "housing" budget reduced to utilities and food - are spending money they don't in fact have.

    When, not if, these foreclosures are processed the "squatters" are evicted and suddenly their household expenditures either spike or they are rendered homeless. Both outcomes destroy their consumer purchasing power. At the same time the banks' recognition of these hidden losses destroys the alleged and claimed excess capital in these financial institutions.[/quote]

    it is also simply a matter of common sense. why on god's green earth would the fed be so opaque as to what they are actually doing, issuing threats no less, if the banking system were not dead as a doorknob?

    it would be one thing if it was just the banks, but it's not. it's damn near everyone. to me it is the sheer cumulative magnitude of global insolvency, combined with just how daisy chained our financial system is, which will doom us in the end. we will try our darndest (which the bulls think will be enough), but the cumulative problem is too big for our government to hold up... imho

  • Comment Link cube660 Wednesday, 13 May 2009 20:21 posted by cube660


    Your [b]recast of scap[/b] is absolutely remarkable and scary!!
    I really don't know what to say at this point other than.... all subscribers should do their research to find the bank, or banks (that are still standing) which have the LARGEST exposure to credit cards, and ALT-A loans and buy leap puts while they are affordable at these over bought levels!

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