Thursday, 11 February 2010 18:00

Simon Properties Offers to Buy GGP for $10B, or Just Over $9 Per Share

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From PR Newswire

Simon Property Group Makes $10 Billion Offer to Acquire General Growth Properties

Offer Provides 100% Cash Recovery Plus Accrued Interest To All Unsecured Creditors; Would Accelerate General Growth's Emergence From Bankruptcy

General Growth Shareholders Would Receive Value Exceeding $9.00 Per Share, Including $6.00 Per Share In Cash Plus Assets Valued At More Than $3.00 Per Share, While Avoiding Likely Dilution From Stand-Alone Recapitalization

Offer Supported By General Growth's Official Unsecured Creditor Committee

Acquisition of General Growth Portfolio By Best In Class Operator Offers Significant Value-Creation Opportunity For Simon Shareholders

For those that don't follow me regularly, I released bearish research and shorted GGP at around $57 in 2007. It was a very profitable trade since GGP filed for bankruptcy a year later. Ackman from Pershing Square bought GGP shares/calls/swaps between 50 cents and 2 dollars per share, resulting in what looks like a home run deal.

He was confronted by Hovde Advisors, a DC asset management firm who was short the stock, over valuation and the closest thing to a hedge fund soap opera episode ensued.

While the SPG offer is nowhere near where Ackman was forecasting, it has been a profitable deal nonetheless.

I have made the subscription version of the full analysis available to anyone who registers now that this story has pretty much played its course. The full comparative analysis with updated valuation is now freely available upon free registration here: Middleton vs Ackman vs Hovde on GGP - subscription edition w. updated valaution Middleton vs Ackman vs Hovde on GGP - subscription edition w. updated valuation 2009-12-26 20:43:17 1.51 Mb.You may click here to subscribe to premium research or to register for free. Readers should be cognizant of the marketing component of investors publicly stated valuations. To illustrate this, Let me post three paragraphs from the aforementioned analysis that pretty much says it all (keep in mind that SPG just offered $9 or so per share). I'll leave it up to the readers to determine who was the most accurate regarding GGP both on the short side going down (I think I was the only one declaring a position publicly) and on the long side going up (I did not have a position):

GGP valuation analysis

Hovde Capital Advisors

Hovde applies Q3 2009 annualized NOI (adjusted for lease termination fees, tenant allowances, maintenance capital expenditure and other non cash items) to Ackman's May 2009 GGP valuation analysis, and estimates the implied equity value of $5.73 per share at a 7.5% cap rate and negative $5.03 per share at an 8.5% cap rate. After incorporating the conversion of the unsecured debt into equity at price of $6 per share, the implied equity value is $5.94 per share at a 7.5% cap rate and $3.62 per share at an 8.5% cap rate

Ackman's response

Based on cash NOI (not adjusted for lease termination fees, tenant allowances, maintenance capital expenditure) for LTM ending Sep 2009, Ackman values GGP at $23.7, $32.0 and $41.6 per share at cap rate of 7.21%, 6.71% and 6.21%, respectively 

Boombustblog's view

Based on our observations about assumed NOI and cap rate for valuation, we have revised Ackman's valuation analysis.

We computed cash NOI (adjusted for lease termination fees, tenant allowances, maintenance capital expenditure and other non cash items) for LTM ending Sep 2009. However, to factor in the impending rental decline to be realized in the short term largely owing to lease roll-overs, we estimated 2010 NOI assuming y-o-y decline of 7.5% against 5.4% y-o-y decline in 3Q09. We applied estimated 2010 NOI and more realistic cap rate range of 7.0% to 8.0% to the Ackman's valuation analysis. GGP's valuation is $6.8 per share under the base case and $13.6 per share and $0.8 per share under the optimistic case and adverse case, respectively.

It appears as if SPG offered a reasonable acquisition premium (in equity) over what we feel is reasonable for GGP. The cash offer was accurate to within eighty cents! It looks like someone over at Simon Properties reads the BoomBust! Ackman's (publicy disseminated) valuations were apparently in the stratosphere (and our analysis clearly demonstrated this point) while Hovde was a little pessimistic. Of course, the deal is not closed yet, so this is all just speculation for right now. I recommend all interested parties register and choose a free (or premium paid) subscription and download the full 11 page analysis referenced above.

Below is a quick chronology of events:

This is part III of a IV part series on GGP. Reference parts one and two for context. The majority of work on GGP is now done, and I will (as my time permits) start disseminating the non-propri
Wednesday, 09 January 2008

Was I right on my call on Commercial Real Estate Crashing?
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...Cometh, and I know who is leading the way! Generally Negative Growth in General Growth Properties - GGP Part II General Growth Properties & the Commercial Real Estate Crash, pt III - The Story G...
Tuesday, 12 February 2008
 
If only more rich heiresses read my blog
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
The GGP story seems to go on forever.  Hat tip to CK for pointing this one out to me. For those that do not know,  I shorted GGP in late 2007, after exhaustive research and it took a year to
Friday, 21 August 2009
 
...il CRE malls (Ackman's CRE presentation). Several of my subscribers have commented on his success with GGP as well as the upward climb of REITs in general. I decided to go out of my way to create a co...
Tuesday, 15 December 2009
 
I am here to weigh in on the increasingly popular marketing battle over GGP's (General Growth Properties) value in, and out of bankruptcy. The players in question are large buyside institutions who ow
Saturday, 26 December 2009

The next step in the GGP saga
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Hovde has issued a reply to Ackman's second GGP presentation. These hedge funds put out more analysis than the bank analysts that follow GGP, SERIOUSLY! For those that need a recap: My responses to
Tuesday, 29 December 2009

Read 4501 times Last modified on Tuesday, 16 February 2010 03:03
Reggie Middleton

Resident Contrarian Badass at BoomBustBlog (you can call me Editor-in-Chief)...

Disruptor-in-Chief at Veritaseum.com, where we're ushering the P2P Economy.

 

www.boombustblog.com
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