Wednesday, 28 January 2009 23:00

Things Have Not Changed, So Take Advantage of Momentum Driven Price Run-ups

I want to reiterate (yet again) that I do not give investment advice. I do, however, speak freely of my investment activities, opinions and outlook. Yesterday's extremely aggressive positive price action was uncalled for from a fundamental basis, hence is an opportunity for me (where necessary) to extend my positions farther into the future. 2009 will be a hard investment environment, more so than last year due to volatility, but the opportunities abound. Develop a well honed investment thesis, and stick to it as you perpetually refine it.

I have an increasingly large number of deep, deep in the money short positions where I allowed my puts to expire instead of rolling them over and fighting with spread maker in the pits. Where I use options, I take these sharp run ups as an opportunity to extend my effective horizon farther out into the future. Considering my investment horizon, research style, and current market volatility and uncertainty - 6 to 9 months is a bare minimum, while 12 months plus may allow me to qualify for LT cap gains treatment.

Remember, I take small incremental positions over time. I have learned that, although jumping into a big position all at once makes you feel like a superstar when it quickly moves in your favor, more often than not you experience buyer's remorse due to volatility. Take your time. That's what I do. Contrary to PPB (that is Popular Pundit Belief) we are most likely in the throws of a global depression and happy economic times are not rolling around for quite awhile. You have plenty of time to hedge against downfall, and even make some money on the way down as well.

I don't know if I will be replicating my deep three digit returns of the last 8 years or so, but the opportunity is definitely there. I, and those that may follow my work, must use prudent cash managment and risk management skills to take advantage of the top notch research, volatility and unprecedented opportunities that lay ahead which definitely befits my Global BoomBust investment style .

On that note, I know it may be laborious reading, but the Spanish bank macro piece and associated addendum is very heavy duty research and I have NEVER seen anything like it available for free on the Web! If anything, just the opportunity to use it to generate ideas is well worth an investor's time in reading it.There is a lot more coming up as I strive to get back up to speed.

I have made a downloadable sample of my research available to all without registration. Simply download this zip file: zipResearch_Samples 11/17/2008, to your local machine and open to reveal 6 research reports covering various industries and sectors in PDF format. Since they are dated, those who do not subscribe or follow me regularly get to see how well the research has done over time.

Last modified on Wednesday, 28 January 2009 23:00

25 comments

  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Thursday, 05 February 2009 23:11 posted by YAYANKEE

    By LINGLING WEI

    Moody's Investors Service launched a sweeping review of its ratings on bonds backed by commercial-real-estate mortgages, responding to tumbling property values and soaring defaults.

    The review of $302.6 billion of debt accounts for more than half the commercial-mortgage-backed securities -- or CMBS -- rated by Moody's, a subsidiary of Moody's Corp. At least $80 billion of that debt used to finance office towers, shopping malls, hotels and other commercial property may be downgraded, Moody's said.

    Mortgage delinquencies are likely to accelerate and commercial-property prices probably will decline for the next two years, Moody's analysts said in the report, which sent CMBS prices lower Thursday.

    "The pace of the economic downturn is really the impetus for taking such a ratings sweep," said Michael Gerdes, a senior vice president at Moody's.

    CMBS bonds with triple-A ratings now yield more than 10 percentage points above yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, according to Trepp, a New York company that tracks the commercial-real-estate-finance market. That compares with a 2.2 percentage-point spread one year ago.

    Bond prices move inversely to their yields, so when spreads increase it means prices are falling.

    Moody's is focusing on loans made from 2006 to 2008, when banks loosened their underwriting standards during the real-estate frenzy.

    Also in focus are single-borrower deals, which are riskier than multiple-borrower offerings, with the risks spread over many different people as well as different kinds of commercial buildings and geographic locations.

    The rating agency now expects the CMBS deals issued from 2006 to 2008 to incur losses of about 5% on average, up from its original expectation of 2%.

    Moody's expects the ratings on about $84 billion of the CMBS bonds likely will be downgraded as a result of the review, affecting the bonds from the below-investment-grade classes to the junior triple-A level.

    A large portion of CMBS bonds is held by banks, insurance companies and mutual funds. Ratings cuts on those bonds may force some investors to sell, as they can hold only securities with a certain rating.

    Some experts are critical of the move by Moody's, as they say the review, expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter, likely will cause more trauma in the market.

    "To make such a dramatic change at once will create quite a shock to the market," said Richard Parkus, head of CMBS research at Deutsche Bank. "But the bigger issue is that the exact downgrades will not be known until the end of the first quarter. This leaves a dark cloud of uncertainty hanging over the market for several months."

    Write to Lingling Wei at lingling.wei@dowjones.com

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Thursday, 05 February 2009 13:48 posted by YAYANKEE

    Ghost Malls at a mall near you.

    [url]http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/guestcommentary?art_id=10187[/url]

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Thursday, 05 February 2009 08:54 posted by YAYANKEE

    [b]-Kimco Realty FFO sinks as asset values tumble [/b]

    * Fourth-quarter results miss forecasts
    * Maintains cash dividend
    * Company's 2009 forecast lower than Wall Street's
    * Stock falls nearly 10 percent in premarket trading (Recasts first sentence; adds dividend comments, details, stock activity)
    NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - - Kimco Realty Corp (KIM:$13.45,00$-0.40,00-2.89%) reported fourth-quarter funds from operations below Wall Street estimates as the strip mall owner took charges for job cuts and the falling value of securities.
    The board of the real estate investment trust also maintained its cash dividend, but said on Thursday that it would reconsider it depending on the condition of credit markets.
    FFO fell 92.3 percent to $10.5 million, or 4 cents per share, from $136.2 million, or 53 cents per share, a year earlier. The results fell far short of the analysts' average forecast of 24 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
    FFO, a measure of performance for real estate investment trusts, removes the profit-reducing effect of depreciation, a noncash accounting item, on earnings.
    For U.S. shopping centers open more than a year, net operating income, which measures performance on a property level, rose 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, a far smaller increase than the year-earlier 4.1 percent.
    The consumer-led U.S. recession has hit shopping center owners hard, with store closings and retail bankruptcies pressing on rent and occupancy. Meanwhile, the frozen credit markets have severely limited the amount of debt financing available for real estate transactions, reducing the value of properties and forcing landlords to take impairment charges.
    In another sign of the impact of the U.S. recession on shopping centers, new U.S. leases signed during the quarter commanded rent 12.3 percent over the ones that they replaced and renewed leases called for rents 9.5 percent higher. A year earlier, the average increase was 23.7 percent.
    Kimco, based on Long Island, New York, said it expected 2009 FFO, excluding impairments, of $1.70 to $1.90 per share, trailing the $2.23 analysts had forecast, according to Reuters Estimates.
    Kimco, whose strip malls are anchored chiefly by grocery stores, said it took fourth-quarter noncash impairment charges of $121.4 million, net of tax, with about $83.1 million accounting for the falling value of equity and other assets. The company previously expected the writedown to be about $50 million. It also recognized $4 million in charges for workforce reductions.
    At the end of the quarter, Kimco had ownership stakes in 1,950 properties in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Peru totaling 182 million square feet.
    The company ended the quarter with $1 billion available under its $1.5 billion U.S. revolving credit facility and C$250 million from its Canadian revolver. Both these facilities have initial maturity dates of 2011. It also has the ability to raise up to $1.3 billion from mortgages.
    Kimco's board declared its regular quarterly dividend of 44 per share, but said it would evaluate the payout policy every quarter. Other REITs, such as Simon Property Group (SPG:$42.99,00$0.02,000.05%) and Vornado have replaced their all-cash dividends with a mixture of cash and stock to retain more cash.
    Kimco shares were down 9.9 percent at $12.12 in trading before the market opened. (Reporting by Christopher Kaufman and Ilaina Jonas; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Wednesday, 04 February 2009 21:13 posted by YAYANKEE

    NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - U.S. retailer Fortunoff is considering filing for bankruptcy protection again, nearly a year after the company was bought out of bankruptcy for about $100 million by NRDC Equity Partners, according to sources familiar with the matter.

    The company is in discussion with liquidators and talking to its lenders after struggling to pay its bills in recent weeks, the sources said.

    Fortunoff, which sells jewelry, dinnerware and furniture, is being shopped to prospective buyers, the company said.

    "Potential buyers are negotiating to buy the business," said Fortunoff spokeswoman Arlene Putterman. "Negotiations are still going on." She was unable to comment on whether the company planned to file for bankruptcy again.

    NRDC, which also owns the Lord & Taylor department store chain, declined to comment.

    The prolonged economic recession has been taking a major toll on U.S. retailers -- from discounters to upscale merchants -- as consumers scale back spending. Many retailers have set cost-cutting plans and restructurings to cope with dwindling sales.

    Adding to U.S. retailers' woes, the 2008 holiday season was the weakest in nearly four decades.

    "With the consumer basically shutting down their spending, many retailers, especially the middle and upper retailers, are going to feel a pinch," said Dominic DiNapoli, chief operating officer at global business advisory firm FTI Consulting Inc (FCN.N).

    Last year, a New York court granted Fortunoff permission to dismiss its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.

    After being bought by NRDC in March last year, Fortunoff had asked the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York to dismiss its bankruptcy case after reaching an agreement with a group of creditors.

    But the retailer, which began as a neighborhood venture in Brooklyn in 1922, was hurt deeply by the U.S. economic downturn as consumers cut back sharply on buying discretionary items such as jewelry and home furnishings.

    HUDSON'S BAY

    Separately on Wednesday, Hudson's Bay Co, a privately held Canadian department store chain which also owned by NRDC, said it would cut 1,000 jobs to cut costs amid the Canadian economic downturn.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/fundsNews2/idUKN0430016620090204?sp=true
    The company, with more than 600 retail outlets, was originally founded by fur traders in 1670, making it North America's oldest continuously operating company. (Reporting by Emily Chasan and Chelsea Emery; additional reporting by Aarthi Sivaraman; Editing by Brian Moss, Tim Dobbyn and Bernard Orr)

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Wednesday, 04 February 2009 14:00 posted by YAYANKEE

    I hear through the grapevine that they will be closing several if not all their stores in the near future. Guess who holds the leases at some of these locations. SPG!!!

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  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Tuesday, 03 February 2009 20:16 posted by Reggie Middleton

    They closed at $42.97 today. I am still a little behind, but they very well may be my next project. They simply call attention to themselves when they lie, and lying is what it sounds like they were doing.

    Key points from the latest conference call:

    [quote] Square footage lost to bankruptcy in 2008 in our mall portfolio totaled 508,000 square feet as compared to only 61,000 square feet in 2007. During December we experienced some lost occupancy as a result of certain liquidations and bankruptcy lease rejections.

    ______________________________

    People that we are dealing with right now that are going to be opening substantial numbers of stores in our portfolio in 2009 include Forever 21, H&M, [Zara], Coach (COH), we’re still dealing with Express (LTD) and opening substantial numbers of stores, [inaudible], Sephora… The best of the breed retailers are going to take advantage of opportunities whether it’s Target (TGT), Kohl’s (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), none of these guys are out of business

    _________________________

    In some instances we are doing short-term one year renewals because… We believe we’re going to have a better pricing market in 2010 then in 2009.

    ______________________________________

    I would say long-term we’re more concerned about some of the bigger boxes then we are about some of the small shop tenants and in terms of what they present to the consumer.

    Put it this way, it’s more important for [small retailers] results then it is for ours… We produce a lot more sales and we’re a lot more important to their success then they are to ours... Generally the small shop retailer does about 20% of their sales in our portfolio and as you can see the percent of rent, the highest is around 2% so you can figure the math out

    SPG sees the downturn positively. No development means more opportunity and market share:

    Currently we do not expect to begin construction on any additional new projects or major redevelopments in 2009… The new development business is dead for a decade… There’s going to very very little new stuff for quite some time.

    Somewhat contradictorily, later in the call:

    I do think there will be more obsolescence in this environment but I don’t think we’re in a five or ten year secular shift.

    _________________________________________

    The bond… market is not attractive to us right now… The banks are all trying to figure out what they’re cost of capital is and so… there’s not a lot of activity going on there. The [CMBS] market is defunct for the current time and our expectation is its going to stay that way for a while. So the one market that is out there in some sense of normalcy are the life [insurance?] companies and there is an appetite.

    ____________________________________

    Q: Private equity, is there any thawing in terms of interest in the real estate space from pension funds, other equity sources.

    A: I would say generally US based by and large, no. International based, yes. I think the US based pension fund is tougher because of their own what’s going on either with their endowments or their retirees or their own, not so much that real estate has been black lined, its just they’ve got lots of things to worry about, hedge fund performance, private equity LBL performance, capital calls, commitments, retiree benefits, the poor performance, etc.

    Q: And is that international interest in US assets?

    A: Yes.

    Not buying from General Growth Properties (GGP):

    Q: The three Vegas assets that general growth has, you are obviously a logical potential buyer of those assets, is that something you’re looking seriously at.

    A: No.[/quote]

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  • Comment Link phirang Tuesday, 03 February 2009 19:40 posted by phirang

    I've been writing long-dated 50 strike calls on SPG: those are free money, especially on ANY day the stock gets remotely close to 50 and the insane VIX!

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Tuesday, 03 February 2009 19:33 posted by YAYANKEE

    Simon Property Group’s (SPG) decision to eliminate 90% of their cash dividend is the most vile of breaches between shareholder and management. They’ve used a small loophole that allows REITs to issue shares instead of cash and still retain their REIT status. They claim it’s the prudent thing to do and reserve the right to “reinstate the cash dividend when it becomes less prudent.” What does that mean? When would one ever enter into a less prudent transaction? To add insult to their arrogance, they also claim that this is not in response to the current retail operating environment. On the conference call they also stated that their smaller tenants need them more than they need their tenants. Delusional is the word that comes to mind.

    I for one, am thrilled. I’ve been short SPG for some time now. My carry cost just went down nine-fold. Additionally, whatever modicum of fear I’ve had about management being able to pull the rabbit out of the hat over the next 24 months has been completely eradicated.

    I eagerly await their next testament to the high quality of their portfolio and their exceptionally strong balance sheet (so strong, in fact, that they’ve eliminated the dividend). Also, next quarter’s inevitable admission that they were somewhat surprised by the huge, “unforeseeable” number of retailer bankruptcies, the “unprecedented” downturn in consumer spending and the “astonishingly” rapid collapse in rental rates.

    Hubris (/hjuːbrɪs/) or hybris (/'haɪbrɪs/) is a term used in modern English to indicate overweening pride, self-confidence, superciliousness, or arrogance, often resulting in fatal retribution.

    DISCLOSURE: The author is short SPG common stock

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/117925-simon-property-group-time-to-go-short?source=email

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Sunday, 01 February 2009 11:10 posted by YAYANKEE

    see Reg comments at: http://boombustblog.com/Reggie-Middleton/732-Soothsayer-for-hire.html#comment-3481

    Also see his research on MAC, which mentions SPG

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  • Comment Link NDbadger Sunday, 01 February 2009 10:39 posted by NDbadger

    did reggie actually put out a piece on SPG? or was it just mentioned in passing? it does look very interesting though,

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  • Comment Link phirang Saturday, 31 January 2009 14:12 posted by phirang

    Obama's "big bang" may crash the repo market - killing the BD's. Reggie, can you update the GS model with contingencies for a suspension of naked shorting of bonds (CDS' require collateral) and the impact of Obama's "big bang" on the repo market, where the BD's raise they cash...

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  • Comment Link shaunsnoll Friday, 30 January 2009 19:23 posted by shaunsnoll

    anyone with time to do homework who is wondering do three things quick and dirty things to convince yourself:
    1. check out the coupon of their debt they've issued in the past and then check out where its trading now, then add that increased spread to their current interest expense
    2. then model sales down a few percent

    you want to see screwed, check out what THAT does to their earnings

    3. then check out the leverage in their JV portfolio, and check out the leverage on the stuff they consolidate, then look at how much cash/equity SPG would have to bring to the table just to equalize that leverage as/when they roll over the debt on that stuff

    that dividend is toast!

    PS: anyone reallly looking at SPG don't forget to look at their JV portfolio, that is where most of the crap is.

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  • Comment Link LSD Friday, 30 January 2009 14:23 posted by LSD

    tell me when its time to play ambient...its all dark now;D

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Friday, 30 January 2009 13:53 posted by YAYANKEE

    By A.D. Pruitt
    Of Dow Jones Newswires
    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Despite a tough environment for retail real estate, Simon Property Group Inc.'s (SPG:$43.1400,$-1.3000,-2.93%) fourth-quarter net income rose 22% on strong performance from its outlet centers.
    The quarterly results underscore that mall and shopping center real-estate investment trusts with relatively strong balance sheets and high-quality properties are weathering the recession better than weaker rivals. Nonetheless, the largest U.S. mall owner by number of properties gave a cautious outlook for the year.
    "As we continue to stress and as Simon's 4Q08 earnings highlight, good retail real estate will continue to perform well even in the face of a severe recession," wrote Rich Moore, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in a report.
    Simon said it sees 2009 earnings of $1.95 to $2.15 and funds from operation, a key profitability measure for REITs, of $6.40 to $6.60 a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected $2.27 and $6.56, respectively.
    The company's shares fell 3% to $43.13 in recent trading and has lost more than half its value since September when it posted its 52-week high.
    Simon also said it would switch the format of its 90-cent quarterly dividend payment to 10% cash and 90% stock, still allowing it to meet the requirement for real estate investment trusts' dividends, but also allowing it to conserve cash. Simon was the latest in a growing number of REITs to opt to offer dividends comprised partly of company stock in the wake of a revised rule on the matter by the Internal Revenue Service.
    "We believe this is an attractive option for REITs to conserve liquidity," said UBS in research note.
    Chief Executive David Simon said during the earnings conference call the decision on the dividend wasn't made in response to the current retail environment, but as a means of being conservative with capital. He said they will evaluate the dividend each quarter and reserved "the right to pay the dividend entirely in cash if conditions warrant."
    Simon also said the company didn't expect to begin construction on any additional new projects or major redevelopments this year. "New development is dead," he said during the conference call, adding that will be the case for at least a decade.
    REITs, especially those dealing in commercial retail property, have been slammed of late as commercial real estate prices have dropped and foreclosures have risen. REITs posted their worst year on record last year.
    Simon - which owns 386 malls and shopping centers globally - posted fourth- quarter net income of $152.3 million, or 64 cents a share, up from $125 million, or 51 cents a share, a year earlier. Last year's results included 60 cents in write-downs and losses from discontinued operations. Funds from operations rose to $1.86 a share from $1.76 a share. Revenue slid 0.6% to $1.03 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 80 cents, funds from operations of $1.85 and revenue of $1.01 billion.
    The regional malls unit saw occupancy rates fall 1.1 percentage points as average rents increased 6.5%. At premium outlets, occupancy dropped 0.8 percentage point and rents rose 7.7%. Comparable-store sales per square foot declined 4.3% at malls but rose 1.8% at outlets. Retail sales have been declining as customers curb their discretionary spending - which means retailers are weaker and poses more difficulties for landlords, some of whom carry heavy debt loads.
    Struggling retailers have even begun asking landlords to lower rents to ease their burden somewhat. The chief executive said earlier this month that the only tenants who have asked the company for concessions are those in bankruptcy or about to file.
    -By A.D. Pruitt, Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-2269, angela.pruitt@dowjones.com

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  • Comment Link shaunsnoll Friday, 30 January 2009 12:34 posted by shaunsnoll

    anyone still looking at MS ? MS starting to setup a really good, low risk entry point for shorting again looks like to me.

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Thursday, 29 January 2009 16:23 posted by YAYANKEE

    SL GREEN'S DILEMMA

    By STEVE CUOZZO

    January 13, 2009 --

    THE investment-sale market for office buildings is so bad - i.e., dead - that every tip and rumor about a possible deal sets off a frenzy of excitement.

    Maybe this time, the hope goes, a breakthrough will finally get the market going again, even if prices are nothing like those of 12 months ago.

    In that spirit of optimism, we now hear about yet another major sale that might actually be poised to happen. Of course, numerous other supposed deals over the last six months have tanked.

    The nutty thing is that if this latest one fails, too, it might be partly the result of our column last week about an entirely different property - but we'll get to that.

    According to sources, publicly traded SL Green is weighing an unsolicited offer from Norman Sturner's Murray Hill Properties for 485 Lexington Ave., the nearly 1 million square-foot tower a few blocks north of Grand Central Terminal.

    The sources said Murray Hill has a "highly speculative soft contract" - meaning its deposit is refundable - worth around $600 a square foot. That would be much less than the $1,000 a foot the address might have fetched a year ago, but a lot more than anything else is commanding now.

    Green bought both 485 Lexington and adjoining 750 Third Ave., with which it shares infrastructure, for $480 million in 2004. The 485 Lexington tower has stable, long-term financing and is more than 95 percent occupied by credit tenants including Citibank and Condé Nast. None of the leases will roll for at least seven years.

    But, as good as the building's fundamentals are, how could Murray Hill finance a nearly $600 million purchase in a world without credit?

    In October, when the dimensions of the liquidity freeze were becoming clear, Sturner wrote in his company's newsletter, "Murray Hill Properties Real Estate Fund IV has available equity when an attractive opportunity presents itself."

    Now, we understand, some of that equity for 485 Lexington would come from an unidentified Israeli investor. Moreover, buying it wouldn't require that much cash, because the deal would include "a high level of assumable debt" on a $450 million mortgage from Wachovia.

    Last summer, my colleague Lois Weiss reported that an unidentified foreign investor had "kicked the bricks" at 485 Lexington, but also that the tower wasn't on the market and that Green had let the investor have a look merely "as a courtesy."

    Asked yesterday if SL Green was now talking to Murray Hill about a sale, a Green spokesman said the company had no comment.

    Sturner did not re spond to a detailed message left at his office.

    However - and here's where things get really murky - a source told us the wannabe deal actually col lapsed on Friday, after the Israeli investors read our column last week about the possible sale by Deutsche Bank of 1540 Broadway, which the bank took back from Harry and Billy Macklowe.

    We said the Times Square property's office portion might be sold to an unidentified suitor for $400-$450 a square foot. Then, newsweekly Real Estate Finance & Investment reported that the prospective purchaser was CB Richard Ellis Investors - a subsidiary of publicly held CB Richard Ellis - but that the deal had "scuppered" before it even went to contract.

    In fact, we heard yesterday from a very reliable source that the 1540 Broadway sale was still very much alive after all, despite encountering a glitch.

    But meanwhile, Murray Hill's Israeli partners apparently felt $600 a foot was too much to pay for the 1950s-vintage 485 Lexington after they read here that 1540 Broadway - a 1990 skyscraper with more vacancies than 485 Lexington, but blessed with better views and more modern amenities - was fetching nearly one-third less per square foot.

    The alleged change of heart could not be confirmed. Nor could word last night that the deal is back on.

    The investment sale scene now recalls Macbeth's line, "Nothing is but what is not" - a rumination on a world gone mad.

    steve.cuozzo@nypost.com

    http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/01132009/business/sl_greens_dilemma_149880.htm

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Thursday, 29 January 2009 16:07 posted by YAYANKEE

    "After visiting two of Simon Property's malls during the recent Christmas shopping season, Oppenheimer wrote that sales at the company's malls appear to be somewhat resilient." What malls was he in. I visited The Westchester, during XMAS season, which is a high end Simon mall with Neiman Marcus and Nordstroms. The mall was very quiet except for the Apple store. Traffic was down at least 30% and the GM of the mall said that NM was on credit watch.

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  • Comment Link phirang Thursday, 29 January 2009 15:34 posted by phirang

    EVERY person I know in CRE says it's a disaster. They're all short themselves!

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  • Comment Link YAYANKEE Thursday, 29 January 2009 15:31 posted by YAYANKEE

    Simon Property Group (SPG) is expected to report Q4 earnings before the market open on Friday, January 30 with a conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET.
    Guidance

    Analysts are looking for EPS of $1.86 on revenue of $1.1B. The consensus range for EPS is $1.76 to $1.91, while the consensus range for revenue is $923.90M to $1.06B, according to First Call.
    Analyst Views

    Several research firms have expressed optimism about Simon Property in recent weeks. After visiting two of Simon Property's malls during the recent Christmas shopping season, Oppenheimer wrote that sales at the company's malls appear to be somewhat resilient. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on the REIT. Barclays recently upgraded the REIT sector to Positive from Neutral. At the end of November, Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Simon Property to Buy from Hold, citing the company's high-quality mall portfolio and balance sheet.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/117412-earnings-preview-simon-property-group?source=feed

    How do I know that the earnings report will be a disappointment? Analysts are always looking backwards

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  • Comment Link phirang Thursday, 29 January 2009 14:21 posted by phirang

    If the gov actually overpays for those assets, the treasury market will get hit. Maybe .gov doesn't care, but I ASSUME Reggie has a justified conviction that common dilution will be painful.

    I do have a hedge with calls on XLF, but I am majorly short JPM common. I see the whites of Dimon's eyes. His whining in Davos didn't help, either.

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