Monday, 17 September 2012 09:18

Samsung vs Apple vs Google in the Twitterverse and My Comments On The Same Featured

Samsung vs Apple vs Google in the Twitterverse, bullet edition…

It is adherence to these numbers that allowed me to clearly predict RIMs demise - see  for the actual analysis from over two years ago that laid RIM bare, and RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP? for some pretty charts...

I doubt very seriously if this device will be able to stem RIM's US market share slide, and they face a tough battle abroad, particularly in east Asia, one or the largest potential markets.

Still, despite all mentioned above, I thoroughly applaud RIM for sticking to their enterprise security, something that the other players have yet to even develop to such an extent - RIM Refuses to Disclose Codes as BlackBerry Faces Indonesian, Saudi Bans.

Click here to download (File Icon Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model), and click here to subscribe. Starting next week I will produce substantial forensic analysis with sensitivity and scenario analysis for subscribers to give valuations for Google, Apple, Microsoft and RIM along a variety of market win/loss events. 

The same thing has actually been happening to Apple, with the same ignorance portrayed by the pundits due to strong fundamental performance in the here and now - just like RIM exhibited back then - see .

I often scan the comment sections of many blogs and websites to get a feel for the readers' perspective. One premise I see espoused often is that Android is succeeding at the expense of Nokia, RIM and MSFT, and not that of Apple. Both I, and the facts, disagree with this notion. As it stands now, Android is literally eating Apple's smart phone market share, and as of last quarter - which does include a partial month of the big sellers from both the Apple (iPhone 4) and Android (Evo, Samsung Galaxy, Droid X) camps - Apple's phone sales are actually growing slower than the market is expanding. In comparison to the near parabolic growth of the last few years, it is evident that that growth is going somewhere. Where do you think it is going? The potential for lag in phone sales right before a major hardware upgrade should be taken into consideration, for there was probably a lull in Apple phone sales in anticipation of the iPhone 4 release, but the same can be said for the Android handsets as well (all around the month of June).

Below is a graph showing the longer term trend of Apple market share in the smart phone space. It illustrates the explosive growth Apple has had through its iPhone series, and it also shows some seasonality (ex. lull before hardware upgrade season, etc.). As you can see, the growth trend, viewed either directly or as a moving average, shows marked downward momentum. Of course, it is highly unreasonable to expect a company to continue to grow at the pace that Apple has, but that is exactly what many Apple valuation models that I have come across have - literally hard-coded in. This is folly, in my opinion - particularly considering the effect of the Android competition that is already showing up. If you look closely, Apple's smart phone market share is already showing NEGATIVE growth!

 

Since I know that the chart may be a little difficult to read at the tail end encompassing several years of data, I have taken the liberty to drill down to the past year to get a closer look. Remember, Android sales didn't really get started until 8 months ago, and the big surge didn't occur until the Evo/Droid X/Samsung Galaxy series were launched in June, July and August - most of which is not captured here. The same is to be said for Apple and the iPhone 4.

Click to enlarge to printer size!

Despite increases in both the overall mobile market and more importantly, the smart phone contingent's penetration of said market:

    1. Apple's smart phone shipments are showing a negative growth trend
    2. and more importantly, Apple's smart phone market share is experiencing a very sharp downward trend as shown by both direct observation and that of the 2 period moving average.

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Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

file iconGoogle Final Report 10/08/2010

A couple of bits from our archives...


There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

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Last modified on Monday, 17 September 2012 10:06

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