Facebook is falling like a rock despite the fact that there's a short sale restriction on the stock until at least tomorrow. Why is there a short sale restriction in the first place? Exactly what is wrong with allowing market forces to find the true market price? Well, you can run but you can't hide, Mr. Market equilibrium avoider.
BoomBustBlog subscribers have been thoroughly versed in Facebook's true value for over a year, As I Promised Last Year, Facebook Is Being Proven To Be Overhyped and Overpriced! Now that Facebook Finally Faces The Fact Of BoomBustBlog Analsysis, let pull out that simplified unlocked version of the valuation model used for our Facebook report (available for immediate download to pro/institutional subscribers) - Facebook Valuation Model 08Feb2012. Here is a screenshot of my personally updated version of the model.
All paying subscribers can download the addendum here - FB IPO Analysis & Valuation Note - update with per share valuation. Here's a quip from the last line of the report:
"As of the writing of this addendum, Facebook is trading at $33.83, a day after debuting at $38.This utter disappointment and gutting of the muppets is exactly what our research has anticipated. From a strictly fundamental perspective, Facebook shouldn’t see its IPO price anywhere within the foreseeable future!".
The general subscriber access full forensic opinion is still available, FaceBook IPO & Valuation Note Update in addition to the short update above. Of course, higher level subscribers should feel free to play with the model above as well. It is recommended that subscribers (click here to subscribe) also review the original analyses (FB note final 01/11/2011).
Here's where I broke it down on Capital Account
I also happened to do the same on the Max Kesier show...
I discussed Facebook on the Peter Schiff radio show, the Facebook excerpt is below...
Additional Facebook analysis, valuationa and commentary.
On Max Keiser, go to the 13:55 marker for more on Facebook...
Here are the free blog posts on the topic:
- Facebook Registers The WHOLE WORLD! Or At Least They Would Have To In Order To Justify Goldman’s Pricing: Here’s What $2 Billion Or So Worth Of Goldman HNW Clients Probably Wish They Read This Time Last Week!
- Facebook Becomes One Of The Most Highly Valued Media Companies In The World Thanks To Goldman, & Its Still Private!
- Here’s A Look At What The Goldman FaceBook Fund Will Look Like As It Ignores The SEC & Peddles Private Shares To The Public Without Full Disclosure
- The Anatomy Of The Record Bonus Pool As The Foregone Conclusion: We Plug The Numbers From Goldman’s Facebook Fund Marketing Brochure Into Our Models
- Did Goldman Just Rip Its HNW and Institutional Clients Once Again? Facebook Growth Slows Pre-IPO, Just As We Warned!
- The World's First Phenomenally Forensic Facebook Analysis - This Is What You Need Before You Invest, Pt 1
- The Final Facebook Forensic IPO Analysis: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly