Continuing my rant on the effectiveness (not) of the ratings agencies, I bring to you an interesting documentary on the rating agencies' effect on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, produced by VPRO Tegenlicht out of Amsterdam. You can see the full video here, but only about half of it is in English. I appear in the following spots: 4:00, 22:30, 40:00...
As a recap of my more recent rants on this topic, see the headlines and excerpt summaries below. As you read through this, notice how French-controlled Fitch seems to have a problem downgrading France, who definitively has some serious issues...
Where Are The Ratings Agencies For UK & German Banks Before They Go Boom? How About Those Euro REITs? Agencies Anybody?
Last week I illustrated the interconnected EU master duo with the most ironic of divergent agendas: When The Duopolistic Owners Of The EU Printing Presses Disagree On The Color Of The Ink! Basically, Germany and France are pulling in two different directions trying to get off of a boat that will drown them both, regardless. Then I posed the taboo question: Are The Ultra Conservative Dutch Immune To Pan-European Pandemic Contagion? Are You Safe During An Earthquake Because You Keep Your Shoes Tied Snugly?
The Dutch are probably in for a banging that the vast majority of the populace are not expecting. The presentation below is a subset of the keynote speech that I gave at the ING CRE Valuation Conference in Amsterdam last April. Some may say it was quite prescient. I'd say it was a matter of paying attention.
Before you peruse through the Power Points and related videos, glance over Interbank_Contagion_in_the_Dutch_Banking - 2006 (pdf) and then review Cross_Border_Bank_Contagion_in_Europe_- 2006 (pdf). It is apparent that I wasn't the only one who used calculators and common sense before it was too late. To wit:
Remember, I warned of a European bank runs early on and even warned the public (after my subscribers had an opportunity to take positions) of the impending fall of BNP Paribas. See "BoomBust BNP Paribas?" (it is strongly recommended that you review this article if you haven't read it already) I started releasing snippets and tidbits of the proprietary research that led to the BNP short, namely "Bank Run Liquidity Candidate Forensic Opinion" - A full forensic note for professional and institutional subscribers.
I then went on to thoroughly analyze the risks and potential downfalls of Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America - all while the sell side had strong buys on both these banks and the industry. Well, it appears as Fitch has either caught an attitude, caught religion or both. As reported through the MSM,Fitch Downgrades Several Big US and European Banks
Is this truly a surprise? Does anyone truly believe this heavily financially engineered FrankenFinance monster actually deserves a AAA rating? Yes, I do mean Frankenstein assets. I implore you to delve in further - "Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance!" and Financial Innovation vs Financial Fraud.
As a matter of fact, it actually appears that those few members of S&P that do read my blog have actually found some influence in the company. If you remember, last week I challenged the rating agencies with this taunting post -Where Are The Ratings Agencies Before UK & German Banks Go Boom? How About Those Euro REITs? Agencies Anybody? Now, it's not as if the agencies have went so far as to actually take heed to my warning, but those who follow me know that I have been leading my subscribers through an explicit path of "contagion to come" for two years now. Who is the major conduit of said contagion? Well, the very same nation who is the 50% of the bilateral lynchpin of the EFSF.
I invite any and all to look at my predictive track record and compare it to ANY of the big three rating agencies. See Who is Reggie Middleton?