Thursday, 22 September 2011 09:07

Small Independent, Bombastic Financial News Show Dramatically Scoops the Financial Times On French Bank Run Story Featured

bnp_paribasStacy Herbert and Max Keiser have absolutely scooped the FT on the French bank run story with thier interactive interview of me and the use of new media. Absolutley! The following are Stacey's Twitter stream in reverse chronological order for today:

  1. No lines outside BNP Paribas. But then it is still lunch time. No self-respecting French person would neglect dessert course.
  2. Here is @ReggieMiddleton on a French bank run on 12 September boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/A… Post provides links back to even earlier warnings.
  3. A must watch Keiser Report youtube.com/watch?v=ciGKW3… Troika Tanks, Junta Bots & A Run On French Banks
  4. Today's episode of the Keiser Report features interview with @ReggieMiddleton talking about a run on French banks. Should be on youtbe soon.
  5. Keiser Report bit.ly/qvnYBi Troika Tanks, Junta Bots & a Run on French Banks with @ReggieMiddleton #keiserreport
  6. @ReggieMiddleton warned you first! read.bi/oRSDwd EL-ERIAN WARNS: "These Are All The Signs Of An Institutional Run On French Banks"

Last week, Stacey and Max distributed free bank run models for thier viewers and readers to play with...

Posted on September 18, 2011  -Stacy Summary: We’re interviewing Reggie Middleton this week for  the Keiser Report. In particular, we’ll be talking about French banks. Check out his “Run on the Bank” model for BNP Paribas. Questions for Reggie in the comments thread below.

And they even used Twitter to solicit questions from their audience to ask me during the taped show. All in all, a very strong coverage of the French bank run situation, before the actual run. This is how I belive the media should work. While I don't necessarily disagree with anything that Mr. El-Erian has said in this interview (and how could I since it is essentially an abbreviated version of what I have been saying for 4 months), and I have the utmost respect for him, it is far, far from timely. I urge any and all to read Mr. El-Erian's article and the FT presentation and compare it to that of the more independent (if not bombastic) new media and let me know which offers more substantive value.  For those that do not follow me, the following has been my chronological take to date (those that do follow me and have seen this already can skip past the recap down to the videos below):

Post Note: BNP management is now shopping around for capital investment.

On that note, let's review my post last week, "BoomBust BNP Paribas?" (it is strongly recommended that you review this article if you haven't read it already) I started releasing snippets and tidbits of the proprietary research that led to the BNP short, namely File Icon Bank Run Liquidity Candidate Forensic Opinion - A full forensic note for professional and institutional subscribers. It outlined some very telling reasons why BNP's share price appears to be spillunking, namely:

    1. Management is lying being less than forthcoming with the valuation of toxic assets on its books.
    2. The sheer amount of these assets on the books and the levereage employed to attain them are devastating
    3. BNP has employed the proven self destructive financing methodology of borrow short, invest in depreciating assets long!
    4. BNP management lying being less than forthcoming about reliance on said funding maturity mismatch, despite the fact it handily dispatched Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in less than a weekend!

Another BIG Reason Why BNP Paribas Is Still Ripe For Implosion!

As excerpted from our professional series File Icon Bank Run Liquidity Candidate Forensic Opinion:

BNP_Paribus_First_Thoughts_4_Page_01

This is how that document started off. Even if we were to disregard BNP's most serious liquidity and ALM mismatch issues, we still need to address the topic above. Now, if you were to employ the free BNP bank run models that I made available in the post "The BoomBustBlog BNP Paribas "Run On The Bank" Model Available for Download"" (click the link to download your own copy of the bank run model, whether your a simple BoomBustBlog follower or a paid subscriber) you would know that the odds are that BNP's bond portfolio would probably take a much bigger hit than that conservatively quoted above.  Here I demonstrated what more realistic numbers would look like in said model... image008

To note page 9 of that very same document addresses how this train of thought can not only be accelerated, but taken much further...

BNP_Paribus_First_Thoughts_4_Page_09

So, how bad could this faux accounting thing be? You know, there were two American banks that abused this FAS 157 cum Topic 820 loophole as well. There names were Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. I warned my readers well ahead of time with them as well - well before anybody else apparently had a clue (Is this the Breaking of the Bear? and Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?). Well, at least in the case of BNP, it's a potential tangible equity wipeout, or is it? On to page 10 of said subscription document...

BNP_Paribus_First_Thoughts_4_Page_10

Yo, watch those level 2s! Of course there is more to BNP besides overpriced, over leveraged sovereign debt, liquidity issues and ALM mismatch, and lying about stretching Topic 820 rules, but I think that's enough for right now. Is all of this already priced into the free falling stock? Are these the ingredients for a European bank run? I'll let you decide, but BoomBustBloggers Saw this coming midsummer when this stock was at $50. Those who wish to subscribe to my research and services should click here. Those who don't subscribe can still benefit from the chronology that led up to the BIG BNP short (at least those who have come across my research for the first time)...

Thursday, 28 July 2011  The Mechanics Behind Setting Up A Potential European Bank Run Trastde and European Bank Run Trading Supplement

I identify specific bank run candidates and offer illustrative trade setups to capture alpha from such an event. The options quoted were unfortunately unavailable to American investors, and enjoyed a literal explosion in gamma and implied volatility. Not to fear, fruits of those juicy premiums were able to be tasted elsewhere as plain vanilla shorts and even single stock futures threw off insane profits.

Wednesday, 03 August 2011 France, As Most Susceptble To Contagion, Will See Its Banks Suffer

In case the hint was strong enough, I explicitly state that although the sell side and the media are looking at Greece sparking Italy, it is France and french banks in particular that risk bringing the Franco-Italia make-believe capitalism session, aka the French leveraged Italian sector of the Euro ponzi scheme down, on its head.

I then provide a deep dive of the French bank we feel is most at risk. Let it be known that every banked remotely referenced by this research has been halved (at a mininal) in share price! Most are down ~10% of more today, alone!

So, What's the Next Shoe To Drop? Read on...

For those who claim I may be Euro bashing, rest assured - I am not. Just a week or two later, I released research on a big US bank that will quite possibly catch Franco-Italiano Ponzi Collapse fever, with the pro document containing all types of juicy details. This is the next big thing, for when (not if, but when) European banks blow up, it WILL affect us stateside! Subscribers, be sure to be prepared. Puts are already quite costly, but there are other methods if you haven't taken your positions when the research was first released. For those who wish to subscribe, click here.

Here is the actual Max Keiser post today that has the interview...

Keiser Report: Troika Tanks, Junta Bots & a Run on French Banks

Stacy Summary: We interview Reggie Middleton about a run on French banks. I notice today that Pimco’s El-Erian is also talking about a run on French banks. He must have watched the Keiser Report when it aired from late last night PDT. We know you’re taking our shtick Mr. El-Erian, we’ve got our eye on you!

Go to 13:07 marker in the video, contrast and compare and consider watching the smaller more independent shows for the real scoop every now and then.

For some back ground on the "Kick the Can Triumvirate Three" [BBB Trademark], go to 20:50 in the video and dedicate 5 minutes to it...

Last modified on Thursday, 22 September 2011 12:17

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