Tuesday, 21 June 2011 18:40

BoomBustBlog Research Leads Mainstream Media Opinion on Apple Featured

After nearly a year of showing nearly incontrovertible evidence that Apple has seen its heyday, the mainstream media is catching on. First a quick overview of my thoughts...

  1. Look & Listen Closely As The Solitary Margin Compression Theory Slowly Bears Fruit: Apple to Drop Flagship iPad Prices?
  2. How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue.
  3. Steve Jobs Calls End Of the PC, We Call The End Of The Fat Margin Tablet – Including The Pretty iPad, With Proof!
  4. Is The Evidence For An Apple Margin Collapse Now Incontrovertible?
  5. I Absolutely Dare Anyone To Read This And Still Not Consider The Probability (Not Possibility) Of Apple Suffering From Margin Compression
  6. Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android

Now an excerpts from the Mainstream media:

CNBC: Japan Woes Force Scrutiny of Apple's Margins

Monday, 18 April 2011 11:18 PM ET
Apple may provide the first signs this week that the Japanese crisis is pressuring margins, clouding what should otherwise be another dazzling second quarter for the makers of the iPad and iPhone

The Street.com: 8 Knocks on Apple's Stock

Tech stocks in general have not enjoyed much appreciation from Wall Street in 2011, but Apple, a long-time favorite in the group, has had an unusually rough ride. June has been particularly hard for the tech giant, whose shares are down 8% so far this month.... Here are some of the highlights from the checklist of bearish themes on Apple.

  • Product Vacuum

    Oppenheimer is the latest shop Tuesday to warn that the next iPhone will be later than expected. And as first reported by TheStreet, the upgrade this year is minor with the fully-powered 4G LTE iPhone in development for next year.

  • It's the Economy

    The U.S. may or may not be in a double-dip recession and Greece's debt continues weigh heavily on European economies. "I believe investors are scared of a European recession," said MKM Partners Tero Kuittinen, who points to a slowdown in first-quarter phone sales in Europe.

  • It's Technical

    Some technical analysts have studied Apple's charts and found that the stock has fallen through key support levels. For these chartists, the patterns point to continued drops until the stock reaches a price where buyers have been willing to move in before.

  • Google's Android

    While Apple has been selling year-old weakling iPhones, Google Androids have muscled-up with dual-core processors and 4G LTE wireless connections.

    "The Android camp had a huge May in Europe -- Samsung in particular is coming back in a big way, threatening to undercut the aging iPhone over summer months," said Kuittinen.

  • Facebook Apps

    Apple's iron grip on iPhone and iPad apps may have been broken with Facebook's development of its own Web-based programs. Buying Facebook apps from Facebook using an iPhone threatens to remove Apple from the transaction.

  • J.C. Penney's Gain

    Apple's retail brainiac Ron Johnson is off to turn J.C. Penney's(JCP_) business around as its new CEO in November. The departure could threaten the continued success of Apple's retail unit,which boasts $3.2 billion in annual sales and 90% growth.

  • Steve Jobs

    Apple's CEO is on his third medical leave since his bout with pancreatic cancer, but, as he proved earlier this month at Apple's developers' conference, Jobs is still very much around. This proved once more that Jobs, the inspiration behind Apple, remains both ill and irreplaceable.

  • De-Risking

    Fearing those great Apple gains over the years could vanish, investors are cashing in their positions and banking their proceeds. Given the uncertainties of the market, and how strong Apple has been, people aren't eager to risk it.

And there you have it, logic and common sense. Lower prices will lead to lower margins. For those that are paying attention, it is evident that it is already happening. Let's reference the model behind the subscriber document File Icon Apple - Competition, Cost Structure and Forensic Valuation and go through the basic fundamentals, step by step for the iPad and iPhone (together nearly 80% of Apple's profits) are very strategic segments for both Apple and the industry. The Apple short called in the beginning if the year has not been a blockbuster, but was a profitable call nonetheless. If things go as planned, Apple's stock will see some dramatic downside movement at the same time Google moves to take over hte mobile computing space sans legal or regulatory hurdles.

Now, I've told you before, and I'm telling you again, and I'll probably have to tell you several times in the future...

It Should Now Be Common Knowledge That Goldman’s Investment Advice Sucks???

I'm not going to bother to mention that Goldman advised clients to by European banks in direct contravention to my Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis research (hopefully, you see how that ended). An equally egregious offense is daring to go against the BoomBustBlog grain on Apple...

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that there is any credibility in said proclamations, though. Reference this priceless nugget in light of the links above...

Fear not, oh ye deprived consumers of the truth! Subscribers can access unfettered, unbiased analysis on Apple's situation and prospects, by the numbers: File Icon Apple – Competition and Cost Structure Forensic Analysis and accompanying Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model – suggested use with Apple Earnings Guidance Analysis

Last modified on Monday, 11 July 2011 05:59

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