Tuesday, 10 May 2011 08:57

American 'Realist' Reggie Middleton Paints a Sombre Picture for European Real Estate Amid Fears of Stagflation

Yesterday, I bluntly called out the European state of economic affairs as I saw them in "Liar, Liar, European Pants on Fire!" Today, I present the article published by Property EU, one of the leading real estate publications in Europe which illustrates much of my thoughts on the topic of how and why Europe is nowhere near out of its economic malaise, and more importantly how this may pull the value of real estate down. The vast majority of European banks lend against real estate and when the value of said collateral goes down in conjunction with the value of what many are carrying on their books at par as risk free and hold to maturity assets at 30+x leverage... Well, you can use your imagination for the Lehman like results... 
This week I will go through several property devaluation scenarios as applied to what looks like very promising cash flow scenarios using real life examples of NYC commercial real estate starting tomorrow, and culminating with a more in depth analysis for subscribers next week. The most interesting part of the analysis will be the application of our real asset protection program to hedge against the risk of property value decline. Stay tuned, it should be exciting, and if you are not a finance nerd like me - at the very least interesting...

Click any graphic to enlarge. Press play on the videos to view clips of the original presentation of my keynote speech at the ING valuation conference  in Amsterdam last month.



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Those who wish to download the full article in PDF format can do so here: Reggie Middleton on Stagflation, Sovereign Debt and the Potential for bank Failure at the ING ACADEMY-v2.

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Last modified on Wednesday, 18 May 2011 09:53

4 comments

  • Comment Link Maurice Wednesday, 18 May 2011 10:29 posted by Maurice

    Hi Reggie

    As a pure newbie to your website with no experience nor background in economics, I must say that Simon does touch on a valid point and that is:

    Since the conception of the EU/Euro - when western Europeans/politicians (and those specifically in richer EU countries) have an "agenda" they almost always (at the end of the day) put their differences aside. Lets call it the art and foundation of reaching a consensus. Yes, the process can be long and challenging and in some cases even a little too late BUT "The Agenda" is designed to supersede personal differences while allowing them to share in the responsibility/accountability - something most politicians (everywhere in the world) are most reluctant to do.

    Anyways, in the case of the survival of the Euro I surely don't see them going down without a fight - then again time will definitely tell which only makes the lies/results more worse...

    Keep up the good work!

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  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Friday, 13 May 2011 14:52 posted by Reggie Middleton

    You presumptions are incorrect sir. My analysis and opinions bear no nationalistic pride. I'm just as hard on the US as I am on Europe, given the facts involved. I simply think that Europe's issues are different, and in terms solvency more urgent than that of the US.

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  • Comment Link Simon G Thursday, 12 May 2011 13:19 posted by Simon G

    Reggie

    you have the classical bias of American people concerning Europe. This is the same bias that you find on Bloomberg.
    This is a pity because all your work concerning Europe is affected by this bias and is, consequently, discredited. Because your analysis is infected by the bias, it becomes completely irrelevant, even if 90% of the facts, calculations etc. were correct. Because we cannot isolate the bias from the rest.

    This bias, the american bias concerning Europe, is nurtured, inconsciously, by the american fear that Europe could be more succesful than them, than Euro could take the leadership over Dollar etc. As a result USA treat Europe with condescension. This poor European people entangled in their debt problems!

    This bias is all but human. This is of course popular in the USA, it enables to sell paper. Bloomberg understood it and use it a lot. You just have to be aware of it when reading Bloomberg and other american media. They just want to broach popular themes!

    But you boast to be an independent mind. You are on a lot of subjects (Real Estate), but not concerning Europe. You're just super american mainstream!

    Let me be clear : I don't say that your conclusions are wrong, or will prove to be wrong. But your bias clearly affect your analyses.

    Let's take 2 examples on your presentation :

    1) this graphic showing the respective contribution of each countries in the bailout: You are very pride to show that Netherland has the biggest contribution per capita. With 3 points of exclamation to goad any anti-european spirit in the Dutch room (you see, USA were right, Europe is doomed!!!).
    If there was, say, a big hurricane and then floods in New Orlean, and that a special crisis contribution were asked to other states of the Union, would you proudly point in an Ohio presentation, that Ohio will face "recessionary pressure" because of this contribution? I doubt. Because this sum would be spent in the USA, so the "recessionary effect" as a whole would be limited. Because you wouldn't try to goad anti-Union feelings. Because this contribution would be financed by debt, in Europe and in the USA, so the recessionary effects would be, on a short term basis, limited. And finally because 1500€ would be affordable for Ohio, as well as for Netherlands, and talking of a "recessionary effect" (!!!) would seem exaggerated.


    2) you recite your Bloomberg prause by heart : "The EU consists of a myriad of cultures, languages, disparate economies, legal systems and federal governments that are trying to mash into cohesive unit. The result is what we call in the States 'Too many chiefs and not enouch Indians'. In order for the EU to work, you need a federal (overarching) government, legal system and economic watchdog that can both issue reward and discipline uniformly throughout the region."
    Yes, a little bit like USA in some way.
    That's good because Europe and USA are facing the same fiscal challenges, so we can compare.
    In Europe, governments are already, and for quite a long time, in a fiscal consolidation process. European can and have taken decisions in the past months. Yes, "myriads of culture", but when a deal must be reached, it is reached.
    Let's see USA. Congress completely stucked. Biggest achievement is a deal to save $38 Mds when the need is in Trillards. Wow! Everything is completely paralysed by ideology.
    So I don't say that European system is perfect, but is seems to me equal to the American system, to say the least. So your description of the "perfect system" appears to me biased as well.
    In the same way, you show numerous pictures of (violent) demonstrations in Greece. Granted, balancing a budget when you have a massive deficit is causing social unrest. But at least they try to balance the budget...
    The truth is that you don't understand Europe, Reggie. I mean, you don't understand it, as I don't understand China. Probably, you don't speak french, you don't speak german, you don't speak spanish. You cannot read french, german or spanish newspapers, blogs... On Europe, you are stuck to the anglo-saxons analysis. And the british analyses are like the american, in worse! They are so afraid that the euro could work! Again, this is human and this is selling newspapers.
    So don't try to appear as a specialist of Europe dynamics, politics, this is not your field of specialisation. There's really enough to deal with with the facts and figures, as you do when writing about american issues.


    Reggie, your analyses are too brillant to be spoilt by this bias. Try to keep it out ;-)

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  • Comment Link Fernando Wednesday, 11 May 2011 10:22 posted by Fernando

    are you short the EUR?

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