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Thursday, 04 September 2008 05:00

More info on the intitial shortlisted four

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The following is additional information on the four shortlisted companies that I posted yesterday (subscribers, only). Provided are the key factors that led to the shortlisting. I will be posting additional short candidates later on today, since their share prices are moving rather quickly. The forensic reports are not ready yet, but I will post a little about them in an attempt to provide timely data. The chart is wide, so you will have to scroll your browser left to right.

More info on the intitial shortlisted four

Company
/Information

Navistar International Corporation

Crown Holdings Inc.

Encore Wire Corporation

Wabash National Corporation

Company description

Navistar
International Corporation manufactures and markets medium and heavy
trucks school buses mid-range diesel engines and service parts. The
Company also provides financial services to manufacturers their dealers
and customers and the public.

Crown
Holdings Inc. designs manufactures and sells packaging products for
consumer goods through plants located in countries around the world.
The Company's primary products include steel and aluminum cans for food
beverage household and other consumer products. Crown also provides a
variety of metal caps closures and dispensing systems.

Encore
Wire Corporation manufactures copper electrical building wire and
cable. The Company supplies residential wire for interior wiring in
homes apartments and manufactured housing. Encore also manufactures
wire for commercial and industrial buildings. The Company's customers
are wholesale electrical distributors that serve both the residential
and commercial wire markets.

Wabash
National Corporation designs manufactures and markets standard and
customized truck trailers under the Wabash and Fruehauf tradenames. The
Company's products include composite and aluminum plate trailers as
well as Road-Railer bimodal vehicles. The Company also distributes new
and used trailers and aftermarket parts including its Pro-Par brand
products.

Industry Segment

Motor vehicles

Fabricated metal

Metal

Motor vehicles

Closing price (24th July 08)

63.9

28.8

22.6

9.2

Market capitalization (in $ million)

4488.32

4634.62

521.18

282.52

Current P/E

93.97

19.21

27.17

35.38

Current P/B

NA

22.83

1.42

1.01

EPS

Current

-1.7

3.3

1.3

0.5

FY 2007

-1.7

3.3

1.3

0.5

FY 2006

4.3

1.9

5.0

0.3

FY 2005

2.0

-2.2

2.2

3.6

FY 2004

-0.6

0.3

1.5

2.1

FY 2003

-0.3

-0.2

0.6

-2.3

BVPS

Current

-8.1

1.3

15.9

9.1

FY 2007

-10.5

0.1

15.3

9.4

FY 2006

-15.9

-3.0

14.1

9.1

FY 2005

-24.3

-1.4

9.1

9.0

FY 2004

-26.6

1.7

6.9

5.3

FY 2003

4.2

0.8

5.4

0.8

Share performance

1 month (%)

-10.0

5.7

2.8

5.3

3 months (%)

-1.7

6.2

20.9

-4.6

12 months (%)

-11.4

7.5

-23.5

-34.3

Revenue (in $ million)

Trailing twelve months

13060

8083

1195.0

1004.8

FY 2007

12295

7727

1184.8

1102.5

FY 2006

14200

6982

1249.3

1312.2

FY 2005

12124

6675

758.1

1213.7

FY 2004

9678

6531

603.2

1041.1

FY 2003

7585

6630

384.8

887.9

Revenue growth (%)

FY 2007

-13.4

10.7

-5.2

-16.0

FY 2006

17.1

4.6

64.8

8.1

FY 2005

25.3

2.2

25.7

16.6

FY 2004

27.6

-1.5

56.8

17.2

Net income (in $ million)

Trailing twelve months

55.0

561.0

19.6

8.9

FY 2007

-120.0

528.0

30.8

16.3

FY 2006

301.0

309.0

115.1

9.4

FY 2005

139.0

-362.0

50.1

111.1

FY 2004

-44.0

51.0

33.4

58.4

FY 2003

-21.0

-32.0

14.4

-57.2

Gross margin (%)

Latest quarter

NA

18.6

6.0

3.7

FY 2007

17.6

16.3

9.4

8.3

FY 2006

17.6

16.0

19.6

8.0

FY 2005

15.5

17.1

16.5

11.1

FY 2004

14.6

12.3

16.0

12.1

FY 2003

16.0

11.5

14.5

5.5

Operating margin (%)

Latest quarter

NA

11.3

0.8

-5.6

FY 2007

2.6

8.3

4.3

2.4

FY 2006

5.0

8.2

14.8

1.7

FY 2005

3.2

8.4

10.4

6.6

FY 2004

1.9

7.5

9.0

6.6

FY 2003

1.0

6.5

6.4

-1.0

Debt Equity ratio (%)

Latest quarter

NA

1871.4

27.5

28.8

FY 2007

NA

1016.9

28.4

37.3

FY 2006

NA

NA

30.3

45.0

FY 2005

NA

34030.0

33.5

45.0

FY 2004

NA

810.0

31.2

77.5

FY 2003

952.1

1168.8

43.9

1025.7

Interest coverage ratio (times)

Current

0.9

NA

9.0

5.3

FY 2007

0.9

NA

9.0

5.3

FY 2006

1.9

NA

24.0

3.4

FY 2005

1.5

0.0

20.1

NA

FY 2004

0.9

1.3

18.1

6.5

FY 2003

NA

0.6

10.3

-0.9

Capex ($ million)

Trailing twelve months

N.A.

151.0

27.9

6.6

FY 2007

312.0

156.0

28.5

6.7

FY 2006

230.0

191.0

22.4

12.9

FY 2005

295.0

192.0

17.2

30.9

FY 2004

244.0

138.0

23.8

15.5

FY 2003

210.0

120.0

6.1

6.5

Total assets ($ million)

Current

11,614

7,698

532.9

464.4

FY 2007

11,448

6,979

513.9

483.6

FY 2006

12,830

6,409

474.2

556.5

FY 2005

10,786

6,545

348.5

548.7

FY 2004

8,750

8,125

251.5

432.0

FY 2003

6,929

7,773

225.3

397.0

Finance and other receivables

5,472

Provision for credit losses

93

as % of fin receivables

1.7%

Finance receivables as % of total assets

47.1%

Total debt

6,884

3800

Debt to Assets

59.3%

49.4%

1881%

Shareholder's equity

(562)

202

Key points

Negative shareholders equity

Shareholder's equity of $202 mn
Adjusted Shareholder's Equity negative of ($2064) mn

Some buying interest seen in the stock lately, the market cap and price is very small

High debt in its balancesheet with 60% debt to asset ratio

Net Sales grew 10.4% to $2,196 million while net income increased 9% to $99 mn in 2Q2008.

Slowdown in construction industry and rising
copper costs impacting salses and margins respectively. Although the
sales recovered as compared to previous quarter, they were lower than
the same quareter last year. Volumes get hit with unit volume in the six months ended June 30, 2008 decreased 9.7% versus the same period in 2007

Poor latest quaterly results, P/E very large and technical reasons to fall

Interest coverage ratio less than 1. Unable to meet even interest payments.

Volumes improved in Europe. Asia and middle east markets.

Howver, the beating comes on margins which squeezed substantially. Gross margin was 6% against 12.6% the previous quarer and operating margin was 0.8% against 7.5% the previous quarter.

Also
provides financing services with financial receivables contibuting
nearly 47% of its total assets. Inadequate provisioning at 1.2% of loans

Highly leveraged with debt-to-equity of 1871 mn
Interest coverage ratio of 3.1

Link to source

Volumes
dipping with macroeconomic and residential housing slowdown. Not only
the results have been poor for the first two quarters of 2008, the
company has also revised its sales guidance for the rest of the year.
The company expects 32000 to 33000 new trailers sales for the whole
year against the previous estimate of 38000

Higher cost of inputs - crude oil, steel, aluminum, copper to affect margins

High valuation with P/B of 23 and P/E of 19.

Link to source

Although
the company was able to improve the margins in the second quarter of
2008 as compared to first quarter of 2008 through better operational
efficiency and production planning, the same is not likely to sustain
in the future with rising raw materials costs. The
pressure is evident from the decline in margins of first six months of
2008 from the margins in the first six months of 2007. Gross margin
fell to 4.6% from 8.7% and the operating margin fell to -3.3% from
2.7%.

Higher crude oil price to keep demand under pressure

Potential difficulties in meeting its debt liabilities.
Cash at $311 mn. Lower shareholder's equity and high debt relative to its balance sheet size

The beating is largely coming from the manufacturing segment which accounts for about 80% of the revenues

Navistar,
which was delisted in February 2007 because of delays in releasing
financial information, resumed trading June 30 on the NYSE after
updating its financial statements with the release of results for the
fiscal half ended April 30.

Shareprice has witnessed an increase of 14% y-o-y

Source

High valuation multiples compared to its peers.
Lower operating margins compared to its peer group.

Source

Source

Expansion plans with strategic alliance with Catarpillar and engine supply agreement with GM
Financial information is not available

Company
has uncertain outlook, extremely debt heavy company, Standard &
Poor's gives Navistar debt a below investment grade BB- rating -- with
a negative outlook. All the company's competitors, earn investment grade ratings from S&P.

http://investors.crowncork.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=85121&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1175847&highlight=

Tagged under
  • Research
  • Industrial Manufacturing

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