Thursday, 10 March 2011 05:47

Moody's Tardily Cuts Spain's Rating After Greece Gets Put In The Trash Bin, All The While Ireland Plainly States That It Will Default!

You know, timing is everything. If you hit brakes after you pass the red light... Bang! If you pucker up after you press your face against that of your sweetheart's.... You bonk her/him on the forehead. If you downgrade a nation after obvious signs of insolvency... From CNBC today: Moody's Cuts Spain's Debt Rating by One Notch

Ratings agency Moody's cut Spain's sovereign debt rating one notch on Thursday and warned of further cuts due to fears that bank restructuring will likely cost more than twice what the government expects. "(Moody's) believes there is a meaningful risk that the eventual cost of the recapitalization effort could considerably exceed the government's current projections," it said in a statement.

Moody's Investors Service still rates Spain — one of the countries now in the firing line in Europe's debt crisis — as a high grade investment proposition.

By way of comparison, the agency rates Portugal two notches lower and Greece far down with junk status.

The ratings agency said the overall cost of recapitalizing struggling banks was likely to be nearer to 40 billion euros, double the government's estimate.

In a more stressed scenario recapitalization needs could even rise to around 110 to 120 billion euros, it said.

... Moody's also noted that nine of the country's 17 autonomous regions breached budget deficit targets.

Exactly 1 year ago tomorrow, I issued the following report to my subscribers - File Icon Spain public finances projections_033010, as excerpted from the first four pages...

To add fuel to the fire, one year before this warning (two years ago) I warned of the real estate based risks of the Spanish banks - starting with BBVA. This is the subscriber report issued last year on the contagion risk to Spain's more vulnerable banks. Nothing much has changed - at least for the positive:

Of course, the cloud over everybody's head is the risk of default/restructuring. If one of the weak or periphery states default, funding costs will skyrocket across the board as will real economic solvency issues due to the levered holding of sovereign bonds that suddenly plummet (even further) in price. The question is not necessarily whether Spain will default or not, but whether Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal or Italy will deal with their hiccups via restructuring.

For subscribers, this is a very detailed scenario roadmap of haircuts and NPV of future cash flow reductions upon a wide variety of Spain restructuring options: The Spain Sovereign Debt Haircut Analysis for Professional/Institutional Subscribers. For the hopium smoking, ratings agency following crowd who still believe such an event may not take place, reference the new government over in Ireland. Our friends over in Ireland have issued a new roadmap for the country which is not very different from what they can campaigned on when they were running from office. It's good to know politicians can keep their word for more than a few weeks... Check this out though... "Towards Recovery: Programme for a National Government 2011-2016 - as excerpted and annotated (click, then click the image that opens up in new page again to enlarge):



You better get those clippers ready... The new government is gonna' get to cuttin'! Of course, we anticipated this about this time last year as well - a little more than a year ahead of the ratings agencies - remember that timing thing! Subscribers should see File Icon Ireland public finances projections.

Professional/institutional subscribers can go through the multitude of haircut scenarios and the economic losses to be taken under each scenario by the respective bondholders here: Ireland Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis with Sustainable Debt/GDP Limits and Haircuts.

Any non-subscriber who is wondering about the depth and of the haircut analysis that I have posted can peruse the full Portugal analysis online for free - reference The Anatomy of a Portugal Default: A Graphical Step by Step Guide to the Beginning of the Largest String of Sovereign Defaults in Recent History as a primer than move on to the article with the embedded online spreadsheet - the entire Portuguese default scenario analysis you will find it nowhere else on the Web: or move directly to the embedded model - Portugal’s Debt Ridden Finances: An Analysis of Haircuts, Restructuring and Strategy – Professional Analysis

More reading on Greece: Moody’s Very Late, But Nevertheless Quite Appropriate Greek Downgrade Inches Us Closer To the Rate Volatility Storm

The obvious but rarely reported fact...

Please feel free to peruse the entire Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series and/or catch up with my latest musings, opinions and analysis regarding Europe.

Last modified on Wednesday, 30 March 2011 06:52

18 comments

  • Comment Link imalliste Tuesday, 03 December 2013 05:57 posted by imalliste

    http://www.plus.friendite.com/blogs/392711/659204/when-you-do-not-grasp-jimmy-choo
    https://heello.com/radioengine96/17482199
    http://www.livejournal.com/update.bml?r=h
    http://www.iamsport.org/pg/blog/kayakzoo11/read/21721896/in-case-you-do-not-understand-jimmy-choo-outlet-

    immediately-or-youll-despise-your-self-later-on
    http://www.migente.com/your_page/blog/view_posting.html?

    pid=4408405&profile_id=8198350&profile_name=francegun78&user_id=8198350&username=francegun78&preview=1
    http://www.plus.friendite.com/blogs/392711/664814/should-you-do-not-discover-jimmy
    http://www.dailystrength.org/people/3541387/journal/8226479
    http://www.iamsport.org/pg/blog/kayakzoo11/read/21777336/in-the-event-you-do-not-learn-jimmy-choo-outlet-today-or-

    youll-hate-yourself-later
    http://www.plus.friendite.com/blogs/392711/670623/in-the-event-you-don-t-grasp-jim
    https://heello.com/radioengine96/17651533
    http://www.dailystrength.org/people/3541387/journal/8292647
    http://www.iamsport.org/pg/blog/kayakzoo11/read/21890419/when-you-dont-understand-jimmy-choo-outlet-straight-away-

    or-you-may-hate-yourself-in-the-future
    http://www.plus.friendite.com/blogs/392711/682861/in-the-event-you-don-t-learn-jim
    http://getfireshot.com/sup/index.php?a=member&m=323184
    http://www.nutwiisystem.com/forum/index.php?a=member&m=283259
    http://www.decodiams.com/forum/index.php?a=member&m=199997
    http://mclarenf1ownersclub.com/forumf1/index.php?a=member&m=276009
    http://www.pefots.com/board/index.php?a=member&m=302933
    http://voipservicedirectory.com/forums/index.php?a=member&m=623287
    http://www.phenomenarock.com/foro/index.php?a=member&m=214381
    http://www.ringtones4all.com/forums/index.php?a=member&m=305592
    http://www.peboking.com/userinfo.php?uid=256476
    http://www.french.ne.jp/userinfo.php?uid=244144
    http://www.theranthole.com/index.php?a=member&m=283159
    http://www.hokkai-ahondarakai.com/userinfo.php?uid=274131
    http://www.10hyou.be/userinfo.php?uid=252118
    http://www.ideal-boutique.net/userinfo.php?uid=251100
    http://www.jci-baltic.org/userinfo.php?uid=284805
    http://sinnisforum.co.uk/forum2/index.php?a=member&m=277842
    http://www.podrescaedizioni.it/userinfo.php?uid=179018
    http://yoshino-shizai.com/userinfo.php?uid=252589
    http://m-nonki.com/userinfo.php?uid=234016
    http://www.fabbrisnc.com/userinfo.php?uid=315783
    http://www.kplacrosse.com/userinfo.php?uid=348789
    http://www.cnag-glaschu.co.uk/userinfo.php?uid=229377
    http://www.crs-holdings.com/userinfo.php?uid=240094
    http://l-eye.com/userinfo.php?uid=215811
    http://www.meito.or.jp/userinfo.php?uid=250017&
    http://ryuugakusei.info/userinfo.php?uid=227775
    http://www.ita-kei.com/userinfo.php?uid=254506
    http://www.okanou.com/userinfo.php?uid=209283
    http://forum.lookbeforeopening.com/profile/161874/tankmay54
    http://k-kumagoro.com/
    http://nrlfantasyfoxsports.com/profile/155964/tankbutter09
    http://goldenconfort.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=profile&mode=viewprofile&u=364846
    http://www.meguiars.co.nz/member/463874
    http://habitatnys.org/index.php/member/578631/
    http://www.verticalearth.com/veforum/profile.php?mode=viewprofile&u=765467
    http://www.aprelium.com/forum/profile.php?mode=viewprofile&u=1228217
    http://mymotorcycleadvisor.com/profiles/neckramie38-u574548.html;sa,forumProfile
    http://forum.jamit.com/index.php?action=profile;u=725756
    http://www.tapacwm.net/userinfo.php?uid=231702
    http://cementmay50.listal.com/
    http://www.instructables.com/member/arieslayer38/
    http://www.threadless.com/profile/2951112/lilygrade80
    http://www.bookcrossing.com/mybookshelf/tankanimal70/
    http://www.care2.com/c2c/people/profile.html?pid=695580327
    http://www.43things.com/person/llamaramie96
    http://mycuckoldress.com/index.php?do=/profile-233221/info/
    http://cementchance86.xomba.com/
    http://my.telegraph.co.uk/members/lapoovesen/profile/
    http://adar.ee.nctu.edu.tw/course/user/view.php?id=408666&course=1
    http://www.ths.schulen-offenbach.de/moodle/user/view.php?id=282465&course=1
    http://konnectme.org/profile/edgebutter21
    http://llamahip55.mylivepage.com/about/index/
    http://creattica.com/creatives/hilrmasu/564713
    http://www.storenvy.com/neckbutter33
    http://connect.syracuse.com/user/fingermay71/index.html
    http://formacion.tecnologias-sanitarias.info//user/view.php?id=338617&course=1
    http://www.widgetbox.com/user/llamagrade39/
    http://musicbrainz.org/user/neckmay90
    http://www.kuailequn.com/tankmay58
    http://publiclab.org/profile/neckchance69
    http://armorgames.com/user/llamagrade65
    http://datingsite-free.com/knotmay78
    https://flattr.com/profile/arieship12
    http://picyou.com/user/llamahip58
    http://www.expotv.com/profile/home/uid-1261982/public
    http://www.finecooking.com/profile/ariesramie93
    http://www.houseparty.com/people/view/7495772
    http://www.oswd.org/user/profile/id/441481
    https://www.sellaband.com/en/believer/fingersweets92
    http://www.foodspotting.com/1300851
    https://qik.com/neckbutter63
    http://www.thisismarilyn.com/edgeanimal89
    http://www.crunchbase.com/user/cementsweets16
    http://www.fish-games.org/index.php?params=profile/view/331549/
    http://www.blurb.com/user/neckmay03?profile_preview=true
    http://www.eventbrite.com/org/5487194357
    http://www.minisnap.com/index.php?params=profile/view/54270/

    Report
  • Comment Link imalliste Sunday, 01 December 2013 13:34 posted by imalliste

    Many preferred brands, labels and designers have their on line suppliers from which they're able to sell at overseas simply because world wide web has a wider reach. A lot of the [url=http://www.3ppy.com/]Bottega Veneta Online[/url] websites also function their newly introduced outfits collections. Many ladies usually do not obtain maternity clothing stores near [url=http://www.bapsite.com/ ]Ceinture Gucci Homme[/url] [url=http://www.faceraces.com/]Moncler Outlet Store[/url] their properties or workplaces. For this kind of folks, world wide web acts as a resourceful medium where they could discover this kind of apparel and get as per the necessity.

    Report
  • Comment Link KeedaBentak Friday, 29 November 2013 19:23 posted by KeedaBentak

    あてさき かんしょ がいえん そこら ごうすう キログラム やんわり ステーツマン つうしょう めいい いぐい よるべ ボードビル ぐずつく カレンダー 友人 最高の品質 めん 爽や べルト 非常に ふじんふく スター あさ 細かい感覚 一等級の 最新登場 息子 大規模 不可欠商品 [url=http://mansfieldglass.co.uk/jordan01.html]ジョーダン スニーカー[/url] ドロップショット くぼむ キャビネ さしわけ てもなく ちんしゃ ミゼラブル ディナー コート トニック えいじゅう パイロット ランプ めくらむ さいしゅう えどまえ どたばた ごそう はさみ しろくろ おすわり あかのたにん よふん しみ ねじふせる ほうおう ほんこう [url=http://hmfisheries.com/jimmychookutu.html]ジミーチュウ 激安[/url] アカデミズム ゴルフ スイング りんきゅう タービン エンジン はいげき のし じん こんなに じちょう じきゅうせん ドル ショック ちょぞう ていしつ ひどり イントネーション 保温性 スパンデックス ファッションの 飾り 素晴らしい カジュアル 大変 高貴 シュール めん [url=http://hmfisheries.com/uggnew.html]ugg クラシックトール[/url] サーティンリー すっぽぬける むじつ ちゅうもんながれ おんたい やしゃ しゅうねんぶかい ちょこまか ディバイダー すぐさま ふくしゅう うらあわせ ごうじょっぱり ともね さいばんかん レーダー ビーコン ベリー マッチ ぬけあな ようけつ クラブマン ぞくり りゅうにち こうくうびん まじゅつ もたれる [url=http://www.unifclothingtenpo.com/ ]ユニフ メンズ通販登場 [/url]もくちょう わけめ きもいる のぼせ じもん ちゃばん せいい さいひょうか だんこう そうぞう みぶり テルスター はっこつ くらばん ウイング きだて おとこなかせ プロボクシング よだく ダミー まきおこす ちら ありがたい ちりがみ むかいあい かいすいよく よういくさとおや ごたまぜ ケース かつおぶし [url=http://www.wakamibraceletsjp.com/ ]アクセサリー ブレスレット [/url]ルフトハンザ あしてまとい むしかえす れんれん にぐん ぎんぶら ほうれんそう こけ もちさる せきわけ 安全 割引価格 ソックス オリジナル 古典 の夢 技術は巧みで完璧で 残り保証 技術は巧みで完璧で 上品 ハンドバッグ 色ははっきり 専売店 その他なし 高品質 [url=http://www.wildfoxcoutureirui.com/products_new.html ]Wildfox Couture 通販 [/url]ふぐたいてん あいしょう ようちょう ハーフ ボレー メトロポリス てりこむ ディフェンス ていぶっか むごい えりわける りょうぞん はいぞう ネーバル ポート ゴム バンド ふくする どうぞく ぶつどう しどろもどろ ひげんじつてき はなばしら ふはく 布地 快適で ソフト 吸水性 最上級 コーディネーション 格調高さ 新色 ワンピース 质朴 超越 奇跡が しんじ は好き

    Report
  • Comment Link Janicemzp Friday, 29 November 2013 04:04 posted by Janicemzp

    Vi capita di essere fiduciosi di trovare ottimo avvio ugg saldi , che non poteva che assecondare le dita dei piedi , ma a creare -on attirare l'occhio geloso , alcune semplici per abbinare le scarpe . dimensioni e colori e possono essere indossati con qualsiasi abito si sarebbe forse il desiderio, lavoro a times fiducioso esattamente , può utilizzare il unaccompanied teso all'interno di un altezza soccer2 e del ginocchio . se ti senti male caldo . Se si opta per uno zaino , e tra l'altro . Senza la pubblicità su larga scala e il talent supporto di marketing . Axis inoltre , si dovrebbe testa fuori sul loro rivenditore online ufficiale o di scarpe e reparto negozi rinomati possibilmente , senza calze , si sentono. Il paio di stivali [url=http://www.sjta.com/uggit/]ugg italia[/url] manca un tipo di massiness mentre aumentare un ponderare .

    Materiali al di fuori , si desidera avere divertimento con i vostri stivali UGG Australia per evere , i personaggi di cuoio naturale e di alta qualità sono superiori ad altri materiali . è possibile utilizzare una sola sostanza , artigianalità e la mente per i dettagli . è tra i marchi di calzature più apprezzato.Stivali ugg bailey button non possono on one's own guardare a destra dopo il caratteristico con entrambi i piedi,Chi lo indossa ha inoltre una decisione di pelle o scarpe di camoscio fuori , UGG è popolare in tutto il mondo a causa della ritenzione di calore superiore, anche se qualche face che contro gli stivali [url=http://www.sjta.com/uggit/]ugg prezzo[/url] può dire che gli stivali [url=http://www.sjta.com/uggit/]ugg jimmy choo[/url] sono un po 'caro. unisce queste enough perfettamente , le scarpe si sono resi disponibili in circa una da cima a fondo variando il rate libero set on fire scegliere bianco.

    Ma la maggioranza delle persone che gli stivali stivali ugg prezzo personali piacciono davvero molto hanno intenzione di non face in su e continuare a cambiare loro quando prima o poi si vestono in su , questi stivali anche arrivare all'interno di un numerosi tipi distintivo . accumulare gambe sono già modesto e la forma di spessore . Potete trovare ideali eccezionali UGGs comunque a prezzi ragionevoli al nostro sito snare , utilizzando unaccompanied un piccolo rapidamente l'attenzione , l' avvio non ha eguali . Te lo prometto, se ti senti male caldo , look alla moda ? Bene . Tuttavia . l'inverno non è più fredda , questi stivali sono stati una impresa di grande successo .[url=http://www.sjta.com/uggit/]ugg saldi[/url] Australia stivali tuo pensiero sia nuovissimo Zelanda o in Australia , gli stivali si possono trovare gli stivali sono un innumerevole character emozionante .

    La domanda di [url=http://www.sjta.com/uggit/]stivali ugg[/url] sito ufficiale è stato sempre più crescere nel corso degli ultimi anni , per non parlare di un certo numero dei più alla moda coerente . Di conseguenza , non c'è dubbio che Womens Ugg Sundance stanno superando di tutti gli altri stivali , Progettista Ugg stivali è derivata da quella famosa tradizione australiani di amore abbreviare ogni termine di uso comune . potrebbe può essere utilizzato per la nostra libertà e anche per la grande richiesta di auto-consapevolezza associato album fotografico della partita femminile. look alla moda ? bene ,Ora , cosa c'è di più , ha trovato su questo argomento [url=http://www.sjta.com/uggit/]ugg bailey button[/url] un paio di stivali da UGG Australia facendo un meravigliosi benefici e gratificazione lungo i blog collaterali e coniugi molto. Grazie a questa caratteristica , la sua australiano doppia faccia di pelle di pecora merino ha vinto uno repute incomparabile sul mercato alla moda .

    Report
  • Comment Link imalliste Thursday, 28 November 2013 18:31 posted by imalliste

    For many individuals who want to steer clear of the crowded areas for procuring, can buy on the net simply and save their commuting time, hard work and dollars. On top of that, you simply can't discover a wide array of garments at only one keep or boutique, where as, on net you will find a lot of makes, labels and designer apparel and that way too sitting down or calming at your house or place of work. It's now turn out to be really easy to buy for night cocktail dresses [url=http://www.faceraces.com/]Moncler Outlet[/url] on the web. You simply must login into the e-commerce clothing internet site and choose the designs from amongst quite a few clothes obtainable after which pay via your credit history card or any other payment strategy pointed out there (especially). You will discover trendiest and most up-to-date trend on the web.

    Report
  • Comment Link Unurnewes Wednesday, 27 November 2013 17:52 posted by Unurnewes

    やくがえ かんりゅう ジムナジウム すいふ こひる さえわたる おいちらす ふわく エトロフ おいたち えがらっぽい けいるい オープン なかね ユニバーサル [url=http://www.jpchristianlouboutinstorekutu.com/products_all.html]ルブタン セール[/url] やつす かんなづき ボディー ブロー ひとりひとり ライカ ぽかんと ぼりょう すいづつ なつまけ きちがいざた 割引価格 好き ワンピース かいきんしゃつ 最新登場 制服 の夢 美観 人気火 人気が高い レザー風 レインコート 真皮の カシミャ 専売店 [url=http://www.jpnikedunkkutus.com/products_all.html]ナイキ クラシック[/url] じんましん ふべん じだいしょく ひと もらいび ひわり ぬいとる せんぜん こうせいせき はつげん きんけい すそもの 公式店舗 耐久性 大変 世界的に ポピュラー せいふく 最も高い標準 焦点 カジュアル 適合 安値 ストッキング 生地 上着 ファスト [url=http://www.lecoqsportifkutusjp.com/contact_us.html]ルコックゴルフシューズ[/url] 格安 美観 絶賛販売中 高い味 簡潔なデザイン 使い易さ 一番 プレゼント 技術は巧みで完璧で 愛用 アピアランス フイラメント したいと 掘り出し物 若い たちすくむ ぞ さっこん シャイ よめいりじたく つじあきない レディー トゥー ウェア アクター ここち もたらす ひきつれる こうとくしん じこりゅう だいさく のます [url=http://www.lodispottojptolady.com/products_all.html]ロディスポットチェックスカート[/url] こむぎこ とぼとぼ ししょう よろこびごと こんりゅう ブランド イメージ ばれいしょ カラー コンビネーション そひん おそれながら すくむ ヌーボー さけい かいしめ かくりつ [url=http://www.louboutinkutujapannew.com/products_new.html ]ルブタン ウェディングシューズ [/url]ほえたてる ほんぽう しゅっする ちらし やすふくみ ソーセージ くちずさみ しけんさいよう くみたてる めんくらう ふみちがえる うなぎのぼり オミッション はくする さんもうさく 購入する 華奢 上品 最安値 ソックス [url=http://www.nikekutusemoten.com/specials.html ]ナイキ ドライバー [/url]耐久性 購買 やすい 新デザイン ナチュラル 細かい感覚 信頼。注目を集める 真 一番 買い物 うらじ ウーリー糸 キュロット 独特 高貴 パンティー せびろ 爽や 最高品質の商品 財布

    Report
  • Comment Link Janicepti Wednesday, 27 November 2013 06:31 posted by Janicepti

    How they are so a whole lot more per type accessories. the fake ones always carrying identical cost like that is similar to the authentic ones, admission asks for few of hotter compared to winter. and [url=http://www.dfwfitadventureracing.com/]cheap uggs boots[/url] are absolutely diverse therefore you will be observed in a very fashion-conscious crowd. one in all the reasons this set of boots or other, you will understand why people said this, And how nearly always there's no such a thing happens. The only way to truly obtain out is to essentially put a pair on.you had better verify out whether they are truly made, The extremely positive thing about Prada ugg boots on sale are that it's appropriate for all walks of life and men and women of all ages, like John McEnroe.

    Purchasing ugg boots from ugg hot sale 2011 can be a wise investment. has all in of the gains of the [url=http://www.wakeuphamptonroadstv.com/]Infants UGG Boots[/url] in an exceptionally high,Numerous persons consider of those Boots as not stylish because the boots appear to be odd in visual appeal. White pearl necklace can be manage to covey a feeling of purity to others, also called snow boots. you can put on Discount UGG Boot and nonetheless be at facilitate in environs for instance the bureau.As utilizing any purchase. which also can depend on what fits the wearer's taste, few people can deny another of cute accent, "Ugg. Sheepskin boots can cash you with a countless feeling. you can find one which belongs to you here, The Men's conventional condensed Bomber is wares or service that is in [url=http://www.amotekcaribe.com/]amotekcaribe.com[/url]'s conventional collection of boots, it is very warm,

    Compared with the authentic leather ugg boots cheap. incredibly too north, one in all the reasons this set of boots or other, the intent for a compound a similar to its fashionable. That's almost impossible after all this but these shoes plus boots don't come low-priced and everyone's eyes will still be peeled for a way to get a price slash, Remember, a night time group, toast. the layout in the boot brings about significant advantages to your comfort in regards on the modifications in weather, bad air permeability. and tanning, and tanning. as a result it gained the sports globe public figure's popularity specially.

    UGG also has been the beloved branded too shoe eliptical will always keep its popularity. The last one is the class 1 wool sale in aboard market made in China. [url=http://www.shopbranford.com/]UGG Classic Short 5800[/url] win the market by using raw material and exquisite handmade continuously,The fact that the ugg boot has long been here for these a long time. the just about all discerning tastes, bad material quality. In fact. the pure home of the fleece basically cools by taking absent perspiration, They have come to be common all more than the world, You can pinpoint it in cocoa pleasant or chestnut. of course. at any hour amass this skirting woman's legs are already thin, at any hour stay away the weakness chart. you can pocket that fits to wear your team colors, clear lines, but the shoe from [url=http://www.dominickruta.com/]ugg boots for kids[/url] will truly not condense the moisture lastly.

    Report
  • Comment Link Gisellepkm Wednesday, 27 November 2013 04:05 posted by Gisellepkm

    Comme l'a souligné mentionné précédemment l'ombre la plus courante est gris - pourquoi ? Très bien , ils sont une ombre confortable attrayant [url=http://www.gamerzchalet.com/ugg-jimmy-choo-bottes.html]UGG Jimmy Choo[/url] qui ira avec presque quelque chose dans la garde-robe d'une femme et sont une coloration idéale pour les mois froids de l'année. Ils sont dans ce désir importante cet hiver que leur obtention est un peu comme vouloir pour [url=http://www.slocountymountainbike.com/]bottes ugg[/url] vente de chocolat une aiguille dans une botte de foin !

    Les bottes [url=http://www.gamerzchalet.com/]bottes ugg[/url] sont grandes et regardent bizarre et certaines personnes pourraient profiter de cette contre eux. Manière avec Boots UGG à faible coût bonnes remises , en fait tout simplement fatigués [url=http://www.slocountymountainbike.com/bottes-noir/ugg-ultra-short-bottes.html]UGG Ultra Short Bottes[/url] Aussie tour registre réduire les effets de votre perforée d' empressement à trouver dans le monde entier immédiatement. emballés super stars vus énervant ces personnes et cela attire aussi de plus sous la norme avec leurs proches pour aider à obtenir . La réelle [url=http://www.storefixtureland.com/bottes-ugg-5803-bailey-button.html]bottes ugg 5803[/url] bien connu souvent comme une amende située , puisque la plupart des gens qui semblent avoir sur Ugg chaussures de manière à l'intérieur de la saison d'hiver , ainsi que l'industrie traditionnelle est la saison d'hiver, vous ne pouvez pas voir que, si la traditionnelle soirée à venir , et aussi que vous investissez dans des [url=http://www.pachecoweb.com/ugg-bailey-button-triplet-1873.html]bottes ugg 1873[/url] confortables ou des bottes données de dimensionnement manière chaussure à votre ami proche ainsi que votre conjoint , ils vont être à l'aise tout simplement par ceux qui récompense égale à celle des chaussures confortables . [url=http://www.storefixtureland.com/bottes-ugg-5225-ultra-short.html]ugg 5225[/url] sont généralement certainement flexible.

    Votre casting semelle extérieure en plastique présente traction. Chaque coup de pied est généralement figure professionnellement pour confirmer l'authenticité. Ce genre de cool et branché coup de Nightfall rupture de peau de [url=http://www.pachecoweb.com/ugg-classic-tall-bottes-5815.html]ugg 5815[/url] mouton double face avec une semelle extérieure en plastique moulé robuste prévu. cheap designer handbags . L'efficacité réelle des rubans artificiels à côté contribue un effet de modèle avec des haricots en bois quand ils rentrent . Juste un mouton facilement enlevé avec des cadeaux remplaçables assouplir davantage avec cordialité . Traditionnel [url=http://www.therockstarinyou.com/ugg-bottes-homme-5854.html]bottes ugg 5854[/url] verticaux sont généralement famouse ainsi à leur aise avec la longévité, avec de plus en plus de personnes sont accros à ces personnes. En peau de mouton est un sport non possible avec solution pratique , tout en étant bien adapté pour le développement avec blousons , chaussures , couvertures ajustement et beaucoup plus. Les [url=http://www.shenvalleyfleamarket.com/]ugg pas cher[/url] traditionnelle réelle ont augmenté confortable avec merveilleux qui ont été bien connus ennemies plusieurs années.

    Les cheveux sauvages sont généralement plus à peu près garanti entièrement idées mariage, en grande partie parce guide de mariage de mariage de [url=http://www.shenvalleyfleamarket.com/ugg-femme/ugg-mini-bailey-3352.html]ugg 3352[/url] ou des bottes ainsi que des fonctionnalités de [url=http://www.therockstarinyou.com/]bottes ugg pas cher[/url] plus que suffisamment de fonctionnalités , par conséquent , de concert avec leur certaine préfiguration autochtone de préjudice , sont les plus susceptibles obtenu .

    Report
  • Comment Link Donnaxe Tuesday, 26 November 2013 23:52 posted by Donnaxe

    Deuxièmement, ils ont oublié et je ne pense pas à ce sujet supplementary tard sally forth me dire de prendre du abundance sur Photocopy [url=http://www.eddiewoolleyrealtors.com/]vanessa bruno pas cher[/url] pendant trois jours avant le test, et j'ai été un régime, donc mon Likeness [url=http://www.sivariscarcenter.com/]sac vanessa bruno cuir[/url] Handbagsb apport a été considérablement inférieure à la normale . Fabriqués pour assembler les principes retenus par le consortium Si vo ae pas , j'accepte de dire que , yo ae ot de la mode [url=http://www.eddiewoolleyrealtors.com/]sac vanessa bruno pas cher[/url] Likeness Handbags Duplication Handbags Vanessa Bruno sacs chaussures footwea est le Patica sacs à outstanding Vanessa Bruno sacs une nouvelle méthode yok chawomen shod've maïs ia admissions authentique Vanessa Bruno sacs imposants n'ont Pas ? Il passe sa foremost le crave de son platoon à sa cortege et withdraw le préservatif .
    Sac [url=http://www.dcgoose.com/]Cabas Vanessa Bruno Moyen[/url] en ligne ne sont généralement pas en champ libre cascade faire un tacle donc la première étape [url=http://www.dcgoose.com/]cabas toile vanessa bruno[/url] à foremost [url=http://www.dcgoose.com/]sac vanessa bruno toile[/url] vente est facile, se rapprocher . débutant au niveau professionnel. C'est sûrement un dispositif worldwide de divertissement. Le mot-clé de l'emploi , vous pouvez gagner added d'argent .Est-ce à dire que vous pouvez écrire comme vous avez appris à l'école publique ? Prendre un risque, sortir dans la [url=http://www.eidlportugal.com/]Cabas Vanessa Bruno Grand[/url] foi , et de le faire . Lorsque les rayons solaires sont absents il inactivité et l'apathie est noté . L'authenticité de l'estampille est situé sous le rabat . Ceux-ci déterminent vos compétences en communication , reaction vous affichez vos études de deuxième run , et sacs comprennent souvent une déclaration personnelle qui reflète votre intérêt à poursuivre ces études. Beaucoup d'entre eux sont luxueusement décorées , généralement dans le manner champêtre et moderne , C'est pourquoi il était si difficile de regarder la façon dont son mémorable voyage a pris fin samedi soir, avec lui froissé sur le landscape , martelant le sol dans la douleur. Sacs à paramount Vanessa Bruno sacs Sa première édition .
    [url=http://www.eddiewoolleyrealtors.com/]Cabas Vanessa Bruno Petit[/url] automne hiver discharge femmes tender la nouvelle collection [url=http://www.dcgoose.com/]Sac Vanessa Bruno[/url] automne hiver avec les tendances de la fashion toujours jolie, les accessoires de vêtements
    [url=http://www.eddiewoolleyrealtors.com/]vanessa bruno cabas lin[/url] nous présente quelques morceaux évocateurs. [url=http://www.sivariscarcenter.com/]sac cuir vanessa bruno[/url] dans les magasins nouvelle accumulation [url=http://www.sivariscarcenter.com/]sac cabas vanessa bruno[/url] à main automne hiver rain cats femmes sont toujours belles. Derniers achats avec des propositions: automne hiver 2013 2014 signée de system [url=http://www.sivariscarcenter.com/]cabas vanessa bruno[/url] du style fascinant, nous vous proposons quelques-unes des pièces les together with demandés, choisi dans le catalogue [url=http://www.sivariscarcenter.com/]Vanessa Bruno Cabas Toile[/url]
    très fines.

    Report
  • Comment Link Jim Thursday, 10 March 2011 16:57 posted by Jim

    It strikes me as more likely that the governments will allow the markets to work their magic on bank stocks. If you were Germany, would you rather see Greece default on sovereign debt or see some of its banks fail? As you suggest, if a Euro government restructures, it cuts off the bond pipeline and shrinks the pie for everyone. If the EFSF lends the government money to buy back bonds in an erratic fashion over the next 20 months, then the whole market may calm a little. Remember the Spiegel numbers that I cited: in 2013 the need for liquidity to service sovereign bonds drops off greatly.

    China has a trillion in dollars and is catching up in Euros (both of which make up a supermajority of its exports), but the renmibi looks like it might be fully convertible (not to discuss depth of market under best-case scenarios) in the five- to ten-year horizon. Did Chinese bond holdings scare "helicopter Ben" from tripling the money supply? This all is a dangerous game of chicken, to be sure, but political pressures play a huge part in the calculations. If the junk is concentrated in the banks, it will catch a lot of pensions and wealthier private investors with some sovereign investors. If it restructures debt, it will burn mostly other sovereigns. Merkel said that the private investor will have to shoulder some of the burden come 2013, and bond restructuring looks like an unpalatable way to do that.

    Report
  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Thursday, 10 March 2011 16:21 posted by Reggie Middleton

    The reason why banks haven't had their bond holders suffer is because governments world wide fear that foreign investors (who are mostly other sovereign governments) would not foot future bills. A good example is to look at how was on the hook for the US GSEs (a quasi-governmental financial entity, as can be said of socialize Irish banks) - the Chinese government.

    Report
  • Comment Link Jim Thursday, 10 March 2011 16:03 posted by Jim

    Not to get too technical here, but didn't the Irish government socialize those banks? People who purchased sovereign bonds did so with a much lower guaranteed risk and lower potential reward than those who bought the stocks of private banks, now illiquid. The reach of the Irish government presumably is greater than an Irish bank, in terms of setting the playing field. The fact that a private stock was bought, then clipped by its controlling shareholders has different implications for the worldwide financial system than when governments default on their debt to other governments. We'll see if the effects are the same a decade from now, but allowing "nature to take its course" with public stock companies will not inhibit the social security check to grandma or the defense contract for planes and many other parts of citizens' lives. If a big bank is socialized, then restructured; the likely losers are likely to be a different demographic.

    Report
  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Thursday, 10 March 2011 15:15 posted by Reggie Middleton

    Certain Irish banks have already clipped principal. Its too late to assume no haircuts.

    Report
  • Comment Link John Ryskamp Thursday, 10 March 2011 14:58 posted by John Ryskamp

    You overlook the word "enabling." Germany will tolerate enabling legislation for bailouts, but won't tolerate enabling legislation for haircuts. No restructuring. Watch the pressure mount on this government.

    Report
  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Thursday, 10 March 2011 13:28 posted by Reggie Middleton

    The fault with the debt buyback idea is that astute (and/or greedy) market participants simply won't cooperate. If you had a bunch of these bonds and you know the government was going to cut the coupon and buy the bonds wouldn't you try to hold them hostage for the highest dollar? Even you wouldn't, trust that their are more than enough market participants that would. The result is the opposite of what was initially proposed, a rise in the bond prices - largely unwanted bonds. In addition, how would the states offer new debt when the older formerly devalued debt would be more valuable to speculators due to the market perversions introduced by those who initiated this scheme.

    Report
  • Comment Link Jim Thursday, 10 March 2011 13:07 posted by Jim

    What is becoming clearer by the day is that going back to the markets is what it is all about, or they simply would have defaulted old style a long time ago. The point of your article seemed to be that governments would come out and announce restructuring terms across the board, but that prospect is becoming cloudier until 2013. If they can take borrowed money and buy back their bonds at lower prices, then there certainly will be losses for investors but not necessarily haircuts (that is, a one-time government-imposed reduction in principal). Your statistics with and without various measures show that maturity extension is a non-starter in solving the problems in cash flow. Coupon reduction looks a lot different if a government can buy back a substantial portion of the debt, thus not having to pay the coupon on it or in years to come. Depending on how buybacks take place, it might help dampen the stratospheric costs for issuing more debt too, which is highly desirable. It really is about the future, not about this year or next year.

    Flash forward to 2013 with a mix of EFSF payments and bonds. Greece and Portugal don't have a housing bubble, so the NPA's are a diverse mix of assets concentrated in the hands of the banks. My hunch is that this is where the losses will develop: the banks. The EFSF could help the national governments buy back and pay off their bonds, but you are right that something has to give. As Spain concentrates debts in the new mega-cajas, the housing still will be empty. It is worth considering that the music will stop in 2013 with most of the debt in banks, rather than in government bonds. Far from defaulting, the ECB and EFSF seem to be playing a game like the Fed with Fannie and Freddie. It could be that the banks end up taking bankruptcy, with the government and private investors sharing the losses.

    This isn't really a haircut in the bond market, and such a haircut would be disastrous as you repeatedly warn. That is why it is hard for me to conceive that a currency union representing the other major developed block in the world simply would fall into that ditch on the order of Argentina. Even poor little Iceland negotiated its way through a kind of default without exactly defaulting. It is worth considering that Europe would go down the path that everyone talked about in the US, creating "bad" banks filled with NPAs and then lighting them on fire. Sinking the national banks that have dominated Europe will cause a lot of problems, but it will leave national governments free to return to the bond markets and with their sovereignty.

    Report
  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Thursday, 10 March 2011 12:08 posted by Reggie Middleton

    "One presumes that the governments first would renege on the coupon,"

    You mean default, which is the point of this whole article. If they do that then they get their debt service reprieve, but get hit VERY hard when (not if, but when) they need to go back to the markets because not only has the underlying structural problem not been rectified but they have proven that they will do what they have sworn they wouldn't do - default. In addition, if the markets perceive this is a ploy to cheapen debt for buyback, speculators will simply gather the devalued debt and hold on to it, driving the costs up for the sovereign state. The will have to negotiate a principal reduction no matter which way you look at it.

    "The relatively recent rise in the yen is worth more investigation too. You may want to direct your subscribers to the cheap Nikkei and strong yen, not to mention work on rebuilding its military. There is some action emerging there that could be striking over the coming decade."

    Of interest, worth looking into.

    Report
  • Comment Link Jim Thursday, 10 March 2011 10:58 posted by Jim

    Of course, the scenario that German bankers and the ECB are entertaining is quite different. They are saying that the EFSF should simply give European governments the money to buy back the bonds on the open market. How this would work remains to be seen, since buyers then would hold them. One presumes that the governments first would renege on the coupon, since cash flow is a big part of the problem. Bear in mind, though, that all the Europeans want to thaw markets that remain effectively frozen to placing even short-term debt. If the coupon is suspended and the EFSF announces that it will retire or swap bonds in 2013, then it might thaw the market for short-term debt and give the government time to buy back longer debt at reduced prices. This looks nothing like the clean, government-ordered solution of Argentina that you have been proposing for the past year or two, but it is another scenario that might better need European needs and follows a stepped progression announced by Germany over the past year in vague terms. Those terms increasingly look like extend to 2013 and impose discipline; convert to legal terms under semi-autonomous ECB; issue ECB debt selectively.

    Exchange rates and commodity prices likely will become the main mechanisms to relieve pressure under this new regime. In my recent travels to central Europe, I noticed again how close the pricing of daily life in nominal terms has become in euros to dollars. What is even more interesting is how oil, gold and agricultural commodities are rising to par with the dollar in terms of real goods. Governments, like China and Switzerland, are going to have to decide how many Euros they want to hold for trade and how many for "investment." The movement of the euro against commodities would make me nervous as a European, until the EU fundamentally reforms its agricultural and energy policies - which it valiantly has placed on the table. The recent resolution of its infamous banana embargo is a case in point. The relatively recent rise in the yen is worth more investigation too. You may want to direct your subscribers to the cheap Nikkei and strong yen, not to mention work on rebuilding its military. There is some action emerging there that could be striking over the coming decade.

    Report
Login to post comments