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Wednesday, 02 February 2011 19:11

Why Japan at 200%+ Debt to GDP Is In Much Better Shape Than Much Of Indebted Europe

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In response to the post "Japanese Downgrade Illustrates Potential Paths To Contagion", several readers have suggested that the Pan-European sovereign debt issue may be overblown since Japan has been moving along for over 20 years and its debt to GDP is twice that of my of the troubled EU nations. I want to shed a little light on this topic. To begin with, it is not so much the aggregate debt-to-GDP levels that should cause alarm, but the delta of said levels (to be discussed in my next post on the topic). Even when looking at the aggregate debt/GDP levels, one must take a look at the actual debt in question.

Public Debt-to-GDP

Japan, Greece, Italy, Belgium, Ireland, and Canada have some of the largest public sector debt in relation to GDP. Japan, Greece and Italy have public sector debt-to-GDP topping over 100% versus 68% for Euro zone and 31% and 27% for Asia and Emerging markets, respectively.

In Japan, a near-term disruption in the government bond market remains unlikely as a result of stable domestic savings rates and healthy current account surplus. More importantly, Japan has one of the lowest concentrations of foreign sources funding (refer to the chart above) while Greece, Belgium, Portugal, Austria, Italy, Ireland, France and Netherlands have high exposure towards foreign funding.

Total Reserves less Gold-to-GDP

The nations covered in our Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series also have significantly less reserves to serve as a cushion against shocks. Greece, U.S, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Luxemburg and EU region at its entirety, all have total reserves excluding Gold below 2.5% of GDP compared with 39% for Asia and 31% for Emerging markets, and 15% against the world average.

With instability cropping up in the Middle East, there is just another reason to speculate as to when the charade in Europe will be exposed. We have our ideas who will be first. Reference First Tunisia, Then Egypt, Now Yemen: Will This Reach The Powder Keg That Is The EU & What Will Happen If It Does? and Tracing The Path Of Egypt’s Disruption Sending Contagion To The Stronger Countries Of Europe and Egypt’s Social Unrest As A Pan-European Economic and Financial Contagion? It Can Happen!!!.




Last modified on Wednesday, 02 February 2011 19:12
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  • UK and Eurozone
  • Asia

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More in this category: « First Tunisia, Then Egypt, Now Yemen: Will This Reach The Powder Keg That Is The EU & What Will Happen If It Does? Currency Crisis! Inflation! Sovereign Defaults! Bahhhh... Who Are 'Ya Gonna Believe, The Government Or Your Lyin' Eyes? »

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ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: @Digikelly @pdacosta @hmtreasury @ReutersJamie many thanks, original article is here, much more to the conversation http://t.co/wCr1I59MNY

15 hours ago from HootSuite

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: @islesail it matters much less for the states... the US had its own printing press, Scotland, Cyprus and Iceland do not.

15 hours ago from HootSuite

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: @BrettBina the answer to that question is contained in the subscription documents towards the end if the article.

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