Financial, Real Estate, Stock Markets Trends and Current Affairs

Here is a presentation using readily available data from the Federal Reserve and BoomBustBlog illustrating what clearly shows we have not come anywhere near the peak of the economic downturn IF you believe that real asset prices, economic housing activity and bank lending and available credit are gauges of, and effect, economic health.

Since the loan peak of 7.3227 trillion for week ending 10-22-08, total loans and leases at banks have dropped over 500 billion dollars.  That big spike on April 1st was due to an FASB rule change that forced some 452 or so billion in off-balance sheet stuff back on their books.  Basically, this was not new lending, it was lending that was held off balance sheet. Despite the stimulus that was supposed to increase lending, the current total loans and leases is now at 6.7889 trillion.  This is a drop of $533.8 billion.  Not counting the +452 to 515 billion resulting from that rule change, the drop is ~1,000 billion.  In other words, we've had total loan retraction in the amount of nearly a trillion dollars since the bailout - green shoots, end of the recession, no chance of a double dip (because we never left the first one) and all. Unbelievable.