Our soon to be released mortgage loss model shows the actual trends of losses in Alt-A and subprime losses below.
Foreclosures on First Lien Mortgages increased from 11.5% on 31st October 2009,to 11.69% as on 31st March, 2010.
First Lien Mortgage rates on Prime loans and Alt- A loans also increased by 43bps and 41bps respectively over the same period
While Net Charge off rate increased by 2.12% points q-o-q, to 30.49% as on 31st Dec 2009, Delinquency rates dropped by 7bps and 27bps over the same period
In case of Subprimes, Net Charge off rates and Foreclosure rates, both rose to 44.58% and 15.6% respectively as on Dec 31 2009, compared to 42.89% and 15.4% as at the end of previous quarter
As on Dec 31, 2009, Net Charge-off rates for Business loans marginally declined by 12bps compared q-o-q, while delinquency rates for the segment rose by 9bps
Delinquency rates for CRE loans increased marginally by 7bps
Net charge-off rates for Credit cards dropped considerably from 10.24% as on Sep 30, 2009 to 9.5% as on Dec 31, 2009, while Delinquency rates fell from 6.58% to 6.4% over the same period
Net charge off rates fell from 3.21% last quarter-end to 2.71% as on Dec 31, 2009; similarly Delinquancy rates also fell from 3.68% to 3.49%
In case of other loans, both, Net charge off rates and Delinquency rates marginally rose from 1.67% and 1.07% as on Sep 30th, 2009
Total revenues of Wells Fargo in 1Q09 were down 5.5% (q-o-q) at $21.4 billion with net interest income and non-interest income slipping 3.1% and 8.0%, respectively. The decline in net interest income was driven by sharp decline in interest income which more than offset the decline in interest expense. Interest income was down 3.4% (q-o-q) to $13.2 billion owing to shrinking interest earning assets as well as decline in average yield. Average earning assets were down 1.4% (q-o-q) owing to decline in investment portfolio and the average yield on the earning assets came down to 5.06% in 1Q10 from 5.12% in 4Q09. Loan portfolio, excluding the impact of FAS 167, shrunk 3.2% (q-o-q). The interest expense declined 5.2% to $2.1 billion owing to decline in average rate which declined to 0.79% from 0.81% in 4Q09. Net interest margin slipped to 4.27% from 4.31% in 4Q09.
Non-interest income came down 8.0% (q-o-q) to $10.3 billion from $11.2 billion largely owing to decline in mortgage hedge results as well as decline in net gains on debt securities. Provisions for credit losses came down sharply by 5.2% (q-o-q) to $5.3 billion from $5.9 billion. Noninterest expense came down 5.5% or $704 million to $12.1 billion largely owing to decline in other expenses by 526 million as well as decline in compensation expense by $285 million. The decline in provisions for credit losses and decline in noninterest expense offset the decline in net revenues and the pre-tax earnings drifted 1.0% (q-o-q) higher to $4.0 billion. Net income available to common shareholders was $2.3 billion against $394 million in 4Q09 (owing to $1.9 billion of deemed preferred dividend upon redemption of TARP preferred stock in 4Q09).
Credit quality of the loan portfolio is the most important barometer in judging the health and performance of WFC. WFC has slashed the loan loss provisioning rates with the decline in the charge-off rates. However, while on one hand, the decline in charge-offs will increase the accumulation of nonperforming assets in the balance sheet, the decline in provisioning shall exacerbate the situation by lowering the additions to the allowance for loan losses.
While the bank points out that the increase in nonperforming assets has moderated substantially over the last few quarters, the same was partly due to relatively higher charge-offs being recorded in the last few quarters. If the charge-off rate is cut down substantially, the accumulation of non-performing assets shall continue. In 1Q10, the gross charge offs came down 0.4% (q-o-q) to $5.87 billion (annualized charge off rate –3.21%) from $5.89 billion (annualized charge off rate –3.19%) in 4Q09 while the net charge-offs came down 1.5%(q-o-q) to $5.33 billion (annualized charge off rate –2.91%) from $5.41 billion (annualized charge off rate –2.93%) in 4Q09. However, the nonaccrual loans continued to increase and grew 11.8% (q-o-q) to $27.3 billion or 3.73% of total loans at the end of 1Q09 from $24.4 billion (3.34% of total loans) at the end of 4Q09 with nearly 28.0% of the total increase coming from the acquired pick-a-pay portfolio from Wachovia. However, one third of the increase in non performing loans was due to consolidation under FAS 167.
Charge-offs in commercial real estate came down 7.3% (q-o-q) to $686 million from $740 million in 4Q09 while the nonaccrual loans in commercial real estate increased 9.5% (q-o-q) to $7.7 billion.
Charge-offs in residential real estate increased 17.0% (q-o-q) to $2.9 billion from $2.5 billion in 4Q09 while the nonaccrual loans in residential real estate increased 18.9% to $14.7 billion.
The net charge-offs were marginally down by 1.5% (q-o-q) to $5.3 billion from $5.4 billion, but the provisions for loan losses declined 9.9% (q-o-q) to $5.3 billion from $5.9 billion in 4Q09. Provisions to net charge-offs declined to 100% against 109% in 4Q09. Thus, the change in allowance for loan losses was flat except for addition of $594 million due to consolidation under FAS 167. Allowance for loan losses was $25.6 billion against $25.0 billion in 4Q09. With non performing loans growing rapidly, the allowance for loan losses as % of (non performing assets+90 days past due loans) or the provisioning ratio came down to 68.5% in 1Q10 from 72.6% in 4Q09. Texas ratio increased to 34.8% from 33.3% in 4Q09.
Purchased credit impaired (PCI) portfolio
The losses continue to accrue on the purchased credit impaired (PCI) portfolio from Wachovia on which WFC is not recording any charge-offs or increase in nonaccrual loans.....
The balance of this review is available to all paying subscribers here, with a full set of charts, tables and graphics: WFC 1Q10_Review. Pro subscribers can also reference the full forensic report here: WFC Investment Note 22 May 09 - Pro. Retail subscribers should access it through the subscription content link in the main menu, under commercial and investment banks.
Next up will be Morgan Stanley's review as wells as our periodic review of Alt-A and subprime mortgage losses. Given the state of affairs in Europe (see the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series), I believe it is wise for investors and interested parties to review my rather prophetic proclamation, The Next Step in the Bank Implosion Cycle???. If my longer time readers remember, it was the intrabank fear to lend to one another that caused the illiquidity fissures that revealed the shenanigans at Bear Sterans and Lehman, predicating their collapse. Well, Europe is playing that tune again, and probably on a larger scale. See Bloomberg's Banks in Euro Area Increase Borrowing From ECB, Don't Lend to Each Other , and this is AFTER a trillion dollar bailout package was announced.
The curious may also search my site for more Wells Fargo research and opinion