China's Central Bank Eliminates Margin T…

19-01-2017 Hits:208 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

China's Central Bank Eliminates Margin Trading of Bitcoin

There have been rumors that the Chinese Central Bank (PBoC - People's Bank of China) would limit or eliminate margin trading in Bitcoin. It is now official, sort of...

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Is Donald Trump Truly Successful or Born…

18-01-2017 Hits:364 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Is Donald Trump Truly Successful or Born With A Silver Spoon? An Analysis

In social media and mainstream media, I often hear Donald Trump quoted (by himself, and others) as an extremely successful, self-made man. As an entrepreneur for nearly all of my...

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As I Promised, EU Is Colliding Into Prac…

17-01-2017 Hits:783 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

As I Promised, EU Is Colliding Into Practical Confines of NIRP, Bank Hemorrhaging Up Next

Nearly a year ago, I warned subscribers of consequences stemming from the ECB's negative interest rate program. Here's an exceprt from our resarch report titled European Banking Macro Issues for March...

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Is Bitcoin Too Risky? Whenever the Bitco…

12-01-2017 Hits:1405 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Is Bitcoin Too Risky? Whenever the Bitcoin is Mentioned in Financial Pop Media, Ignorance Ensues

I hate to be the one to break bad news to you, but most of the pop media/mainstream media financial pundits that I hear and see opine on bitcoin have...

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What Happens When Rates Rise While the S…

10-01-2017 Hits:1004 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When Rates Rise While the S&P 500 Relies on Cheap Credit To Boost EPS?

So, the stock market, bond market and real estate markets are all at all-time highs. Everything is Awesome! You know better than that. You see, when the bond market wakes...

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Debt Encumbered Oil, Sovereign Soil, Toi…

10-01-2017 Hits:612 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Debt Encumbered Oil, Sovereign Soil, Toil & Trouble: Can't You Hear Seems Cracking in the OPEC Empire?

@WSJ reports Libya Ramping Up Oil Production, Threatening OPEC (supposed) Plans to lift global oil place by artificially limiting supply. This would be in violation of federal antii-trust laws in the...

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Ten Years Since BoomBustBlog Was 1st Pub…

09-01-2017 Hits:930 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Ten Years Since BoomBustBlog Was 1st Published & That Initial Research Still Relevant Today

We have looked into insurance companies' performance last month in regards to our bearish real estate thesis. A small comederie of companies are suffering losses and/or declining profits as we've exected....

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The Macro Truth About The Big Bitcoin Po…

07-01-2017 Hits:1101 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bitcoin has dropped precipitously, and as is usual, we have the cacophony of instant digital currency pundits cackling about as if they had a clue. This is the inaugural post...

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To Bust or Not To Bust: Are We In A Real…

04-01-2017 Hits:781 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

To Bust or Not To Bust: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Banks are showing thin NIM, yet many of the big banks are able to boast stable if not slightly improving credit metrics. This doesn’t make sense considering the explosive growth...

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What Happens To Real Asset Lending Banks…

03-01-2017 Hits:631 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens To Real Asset Lending Banks When the Real Funding Rate Appears? We're About to Find Out

During the financial crisis of 2008, money market funds who subjectively agreed to hold their NAV (net asset value) unit prices at $1 “broke the buck”. That is, the unit...

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Stress Test on Banks’ Earnings Facing th…

30-06-2014 Hits:44753 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Stress Test on Banks’ Earnings Facing the Veritaseum UltraCoin Value Transaction Platform

My last post on the topic of disintermediation during a paradigm shift was Wall Street Should Be First To Invest In Reggie Middleton's UltraCoin, Much Of It Won't Be Here In...

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Introducing the "Unbreakable Promis…

09-06-2014 Hits:39546 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Introducing the "Unbreakable Promise" As a Method Increasing Efficiencies and Decreasing Risk

Continuing on the margin compression theme originally laid out in Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups, I illustrate mathematically how the bit...

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I am here to weigh in on the increasingly popular marketing battle over GGP's (General Growth Properties) value in, and out of bankruptcy. The players in question are large buyside institutions who own opposing positions on the stock. Ackman/Pershing square, who are long the company's stock, and Hovde Capital Advisors, who are short the stock, and Reggie Middleton, the original player!

For those who follow me regularly and are familiar with my dealings with GGP, skip down to the bottom of this post to download my latest GGP analysis. For those who are not familiar with me and the BoomBustBlog, I am (to the extent of my knowledge) the first investor/media concern to go public with a short thesis on General Growth Properties (GGP) with a warning on commercial property in general, and a specific short on GGP in the 4th quarter of 2007 (see "GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house", BoomBustBlog professional subscribers can download the entire GGP composite history in .pdf format). I am a private investor that generates his own proprietary research. It is solid, independent, unbiased, and of extreme quality when compared to the highly conflicted sell side marketing fluff proffered as research, and apparently now stands out among the buy side as well. With all due respect to the successful investors referred to herein, there is a hint of "talking one's book" within the presentations. I have absolutely no problem with self promotion, but when it appears the promotion comes to odds with the validity of the analysis, it does tend to raise my brow, and apparently the brow of several institutions that have come to me for my opinion.

So, let's take an unbiased, empirical look at GGP from the guy who first pointed out the insolvency of this company in the first place. As for the self promotion aspect, I am now offering consulting services to those who desire independent, objective analysis. I will soon be releasing a very interesting study on real estate funds and residential mortgage related products from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, which will assuredly cause their clients to fall in love with them. More on that later, though.

GGP from the beginning

As stated earlier, I articulated a roadmap to the largest commercial real estate failure in history a full year in advance of its filing. General Growth Properties was picked to be the big BoomBustBlog.com shorting opportunity in November 2007, when it was the 2nd largest commercial mall owner in the country, trading above $50, with an investment grade rating and buy recommendations from Wall Street. It filed for bankruptcy a year and a half later.

The following links lead to an extraordinary body of GGP and CRE research which I released through BoomBustBlog.

reggie_on_ggp.jpg

 

The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way! 06 January 2008

Generally Negative Growth in General Growth Properties - GGP Part II 08 January 2008

General Growth Properties & the Commercial Real Estate Crash, pt III - The Story Gets Worse

09 January 2008

More on GGP: A Granular View of Insider Selling and Lease Rate Growth 11 January 2008

GGP part 5 - The Comprehensive Analysis is finally here 19 January 2008

My Response to the GGP Press Release, which seems to respond to blogs... 21 January 2008

For those who were wondering what sparked that silly press release from GGP. 22 January 2008

GGP: Foreclosure vs Asset Sale 25 January 2008

GGP Refinancing Sensitivity Analysis 25 January 2008

GGP part 7 - Share value under the foreclosure analysis 31 January 2008

GGP part 8 - The Final Analysis: fire sale of prime properties 02 February 2008

GGP Conference Call 14 February 2008

Reader's legal observation on GGP 16 March 2008

Analysis of GGP's recent Q1 results 29 April 2008

GGP Can't Afford its Dividend 06 May 2008

Press release announcing new equity financing - 21 March 2008 something that I didn't explicitly model in my own analysis, but after reviewing information without the benefit of official documentation, there were no surprise nonetheless... 26 March 2008

v  We did find some surprises, and my blog readers chimed in with their expertise and opinions...

12 April 2008

 

Our approach is to evaluate the total credit risk attached to the CRE portfolio by

1.     Following a bottom up approach wherein each individual property is valued based on current cap rates and prevailing rentals;

2.     Comparing the fair value of each property with outstanding mortgage to identify the pockets with high LTV, which can lead to losses on liquidation,

3.     Factoring in the refinancing risk arising from short-to-medium term scheduled maturities.

The comparative analysis (Reggie vs Ackman vs Hovde) is available to the public here: pdf  Middleton vs Ackman vs Hovde on GGP - public edition 2009-12-26 20:41:50 1.50 Mb. The full comparative analysis with updated valuation is available to subscribers here: spreadsheet  Middleton vs Ackman vs Hovde on GGP - subscription edition w. updated valuation 2009-12-26 20:43:17 1.51 Mb. You may click here to subscribe.