Friday, 09 October 2009 01:00

Canadian Shipping Rates have collapsed more than 90%

If the shipping and cargo business is a leading indicator, then we are not at the nadir of the downturn, by far... Note to readers: I haven't checked shipping rates recently nor verified the date of this video. It was forwarded to me, and the post date of the video was September of 09. We did predict the collapse shipping last year due to an imbalance of supply and demand, but I haven't revisited this sector recently. Being that exports from the leading export nations have stagnated significantly, I don't see a hardening of rates, but I do want to be clear that this has not been verified as being recent.

This glut was forecasted by your's truly, and it is apparent that the market is definitely in bubble mode since the share prices of those companies affected are literally levitating. Imagine if your pricing softened to the tune of 90% and your share price went up. What would you do? Sell! Sell! Sell! There is no surprise that insider sells outweight buys by over 10 to 1 these days.

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Last modified on Friday, 09 October 2009 01:00

18 comments

  • Comment Link shaunsnoll Monday, 12 October 2009 11:11 posted by shaunsnoll

    Rail VOLUMES are actually lower yoy though for so many products and last years comparisons are not real tough at this point. yoy comparisons will loss much of their value this year, keep in mind the overall trend.

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  • Comment Link NDbadger Saturday, 10 October 2009 14:09 posted by NDbadger

    It's great to be a monopoly.

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  • Comment Link gerryt Saturday, 10 October 2009 12:46 posted by gerryt

    Baltic has turned up.
    http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

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  • Comment Link phirangs_revenge Saturday, 10 October 2009 11:07 posted by phirangs_revenge

    Try looking at rail pricing for 2010.

    Guess what?


    It's HIGHER YoY.

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  • Comment Link Mark Hankins Saturday, 10 October 2009 05:56 posted by Mark Hankins

    For the moment at least, Jobs is "vertical" (in his own words). Therefore we can expect Apple to be responsive its competitors and to the market, if not way out ahead. And when that's the case, even larger and better-funded competitors had better look out.

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  • Comment Link NDbadger Friday, 09 October 2009 20:34 posted by NDbadger

    yes, there is much more to MSFT than just win 7. I think investor are dramatically underestimating its potential.

    have a great weekend.

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  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Friday, 09 October 2009 18:15 posted by Reggie Middleton

    Anecdotally,I'm bullish on microsoft, and for many more reasons than Windows 7 which will not have the impact that the other OSs have had and for different reasons. Apple dropped the ball by not substantially raising the bar on their Ipod Touch and Iphone, while Microsoft has knocked the ball out of the park with the Zune HD and the newest applications of Windows Mobile, ex. the HTC Touch Pro 2. These products run circles around their competitors and are extremely useful. I actually use all of them, and am very familiar with the technologies and business models behind all of them. The Zune HD allegedly uses an 8 core chip (enoguh for 720p output), and is noticeably smaller than all of its competition.

    Windows 7 will bring the ecosystem together. Apple is apparently a victim of its own success. It cannot allow telephony apps on its handsets and Ipods (ex. google voice, skype, camera, with wifi) due to its reliance on carriers. Apple cannot match the all you can eat streaming services because it relies on the highly profitable, high throughput Itunes to subsidize its hardware at 99 cents a song.

    It is stuck between success and a hard place.

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  • Comment Link Mark Hankins Friday, 09 October 2009 16:18 posted by Mark Hankins

    I was the one who forwarded the video to Reggie ... it came up as "related" to one of mine on YouTube and I made the (premature as it turns out) assumption that it reflected a current price swoon, not one at some other time.

    Nonetheless, this recent WSJ article says major ship owners are being forced into restructuring talks and that recovery is expected to take at least a year.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704882404574461122370113380.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    P.S. .... for those not subscribed to WSJ if you search this article from Google news you get to see the whole thing, not just the subscriber preview.

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  • Comment Link NDbadger Friday, 09 October 2009 15:12 posted by NDbadger

    Any thoughts on writing a bullish piece on MSFT? Win 7 is getting good reviews. It's pretty easy to envision the whole world switching over to Win 7 over the next few years. It's not too hard to get to $45 on the stock. Just a thought.

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  • Comment Link SP Friday, 09 October 2009 14:24 posted by SP

    C'mon guys. This is old news reposted on youtube. Shipping rates didn't go from $200k to $2.8k this year. That was last year.

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  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Friday, 09 October 2009 13:32 posted by Reggie Middleton

    Currently, shares are not following fundamentals, and the analyst in question is correct from a relative perspective. what she is not mentioning is that JPM has enough consumer exposure to make up for its lack in CRE, plus it does have some commercial loan issues. There is also the elephant in the room which is worth at least a billion dollars in losses for each of the big banks. I will be posting more on this over the next day or two.

    In general, banking (like homebuilding) has had its run, and if you are looking for a good investment, then I would not look here. They are obvioulsy good for trading pops and drops, but as a medium term investment, the risk/reward outlook is quite bad.

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  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Friday, 09 October 2009 13:26 posted by Reggie Middleton

    The video was dated 9/27/09. Here is a chain of the comments:


    resaxz (1 week ago) Show Hide
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    what is the date for this news? is it sept 2009 or last years collapse?
    tazzzwannabe2 (1 week ago) Show Hide
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    This is from September this year..
    resaxz (1 week ago) Show Hide
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    cheers for the reply, that's very concerning as the Baltic Dry Index began to collapse last year in June and it's been doing the same this year. October could be another bad month if not THE collpase. It's not good really not good.
    tazzzwannabe2 (1 week ago) Show Hide
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    Empty shelves coming to a store near you..

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  • Comment Link Reggie Middleton Friday, 09 October 2009 13:25 posted by Reggie Middleton

    the sell side analysts work for the prop desks and the banking arm of the bank, not for you. I would be very, very careful taking heed of their advice.

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  • Comment Link Ned Friday, 09 October 2009 13:24 posted by Ned

    This JPM & BAC upgrade in price target was from CNBC today.
    I for one think the analyst is wrong on points she makes but I still value Reggie's written thoughts.

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  • Comment Link shaunsnoll Friday, 09 October 2009 13:17 posted by shaunsnoll

    how old is this video? I feel like some of their numbers are not current?

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  • Comment Link shaunsnoll Friday, 09 October 2009 13:15 posted by shaunsnoll

    Ned,

    Just my opinion, but the less I follow sell side analysts like Morgan Stanley, the better I do as an investor. I generally view their price targets and earnings revisions as less than useless and wouldn't worry too much about what they say. Reggie has been very public on this blog about how he feels similarly.

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  • Comment Link Ned Friday, 09 October 2009 12:21 posted by Ned

    See above.

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  • Comment Link Ned Friday, 09 October 2009 12:18 posted by Ned

    Today Morgan Stanley's bank analyst called for a ''spike of greater than 30% in the 2010 price performance'' for JPM and WFC, i.e. $60 & $40 targets respectively; have you read her reasoning?? YOUR comments to her comments would be helpful. Thanks!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/33230971

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