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You certainly know the Street, Reggia, as anyone who has spent his whole life in the boroughs. However, Ireland certainly won't exhaust the robust ECB and EFSF funds that you predicted could never be augmented or survive until 2012. Before you wear the green and do the jig, consider that a European central authority is bailing governments, who first socialized the banks. And it survived a major election defeat! This ain't Argentina and it has unraveled in CRE in Ireland, while the US is facing a very different RRE disintegration - not a meltdown. The international markets will catch up to Portugal and Spain in time, not what you foresaw and two very different cases, one a ratings collapse of sovereign debt not backed by anything (Portugal) and an amazingly slow disintegration of the RRE in Spain, that the government is trying to bail through the shaky thrifts (not multinationals behind RRE like the US) of the national lenders of Ireland.

I sure hope that your country analyses are more varied than the tendency of these posts to lump a lot of different scenarios into one, because a lot of different folks along the "chain of life" are going to get eaten different in different countries. And some of these folks are exposed in different currencies, which needs a lot more analysis than a curve pointing to Bob gets pummeled in Asia. Danish krona, Swiss francs, the pound, the euro, the dollar. There will be haircuts in Europe, some more some places and some less. Some devaluations around the corner, but which currencies and when? If Mundell isn't on your bookshelf, it's a great time to revisit some of those questions about currency areas.