Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:89407 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

Read more

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:82558 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

Read more

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:82452 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

Read more

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:86947 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

Read more

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:83358 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

Read more

What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:85474 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

Read more

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:56583 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

Read more

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:84836 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

Read more

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:84511 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

Read more

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:84372 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

Read more

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:90900 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

Read more

The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:88442 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

Read more

The Name Brand - that bastion of marketing that the finance and investment industries have come to rely on to convince those who should no better to do things that they shouldn't -has come under attack. "Attack by who?", you may ask. Attack by me, Reggie. "Who the hell is Reggie?" you ask. Well, a quick bio , and a list of writings that have brought use here so we can move on...

  In the past week or two I attempted to debunk the "'Name Brand' is the best" mentality of so many individual and INSTITUTIONAL investors enamored by the marketing machine that is the Wall Street banks, brokers and Greenwich/mid-town hedge funds. In attmepting to do so I have released this blog's research model results, provided a glimpse into my proprietary trading, a backgrounder on my investing style, and a comprehensive comparison of both the blog and my results as compared to all major (and minor) hedge fund indices. 

Now that we know:

  1. that a man can beat market averages,
  2. we know hedge funds don't necessarily deliver that much absolute alpha,
  3. we know the difference between relative and absolute return,
  4. we know the difference between return and risk adjusted return,
  5. and know who the hell Reggie is...

It's time to move on to what is the actual essence of Wall Street, the big money center banks and brokerages (or at least what's left of them). As representative of Wall Street, I am using the four largest and most representative banks and brokerages - Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley.

 

I compared the 62 companies' opinions that I have covered in the blog with that of the big Wall Street name brands' analyst buy/sell recommendations. Needless, to say, the results are not even close. I have started the blog in September of 2007, and have been patently negative every day since. Both the blog research and my proprietary trading account have been short, save for one long call - Bear Stearns after going short from the 130's to the JP Morgan announcement to buy the company for two or three dollars per share. I knew this to be unlikely to go through, and announced that strategic calls were totally underpriced. We all know how that story ended.

Since nearly all of my positions were short, I am using a margin account to quantify the blog's research, which I feel is most realistic since you can't short in a cash account.  

image007.png  

 


Cash Margin account (most realistic, since shorts often recommended)
Reggie's Blog Research returns 42.4% 81.6%
Citi -30.6%
GS -33.0%
MS -22.4%
JPM -40.2%

 

  Just to be as conservative a possible, I included cash comparisons as well. Same story, different numbers.

image005.png

Below is a table of the 62 stocks that I covered in the blog, with a direct comparison with the guidance of the big boys, stock by stock. For those who want even more proof and meant, I have included all of the numbers and calculations that went into this via pdf download (57 pages of stuff). This document is available to download for free, without registration -  pdf  Blog vs. Broker Analysis - supplementary material (1.09 MB 2008-10-24 14:43:34) .

Get Adobe Reader Adobe Reader version9 or higher required.

 

I literally expect every brokerage and wealth management client of all of these banks to buy a subscription to this blog. All I ask is, 

"Who has issued the best guidance  during these turbulent times?" 

 

BoomBustBlog's Holding period return (short, margin account)

Reggie's HPR without margin and commissions

Brokers (Holding period return)

Stock

1 month

3 months

Since invested

Citibank

Goldman Sachs

JP Morgan

Morgan Stanley

len

143.4%

52.0%

36.0%

74.7%

-37.9%

69.5%

-93.7%

 

hov

134.4%

53.8%

47.3%

70.2%

-65.2%

 

-62.4%

 

phm

98.4%

46.1%

26.5%

52.2%

-35.0%

-44.6%

-44.2%

 

ctx

131.8%

43.5%

30.6%

68.9%

-39.2%

-65.1%

63.2%

 

dhom

130.6%

0.0%

0.0%

68.3%

 

No coverage

 

 

bzh

150.3%

58.2%

50.3%

78.1%

 

-70.9%

80.0%

 

rdn

164.5%

44.7%

-32.0%

85.2%

 

No coverage

 

 

mtg

176.2%

65.4%

50.8%

91.1%

   

-65.4%

 

dhi

127.5%

61.1%

52.5%

66.7%

98.7%

-61.4%

-65.4%

 

tol

25.1%

24.9%

4.3%

15.5%

-10.6%

-9.3%

-11.7%

 

bsc

182.7%

33.2%

 

94.3%

 

No coverage

 

 

cfc

151.2%

0.0%

0.0%

78.5%

 

No coverage

 

 

mbi

172.4%

45.6%

-24.0%

89.1%

 

37.4%

-79.6%

 

abk

187.3%

26.8%

-0.9%

96.6%

4.7%

 

-90.9%

 

wm

193.7%

   

99.8%

 

99.5%

 

 

ryl

62.6%

37.3%

26.0%

33.8%

-26.5%

-28.3%

-56.1%

 

ms

123.6%

27.1%

51.5%

63.9%

-71.2%

-70.1%

-70.6%

 

ggp

179.2%

82.3%

90.4%

91.7%

56.5%

-94.6%

-93.7%

 

bac

78.9%

30.5%

24.9%

41.4%

-52.9%

-29.5%

-54.6%

-55.5%

kbh

84.4%

34.9%

20.8%

44.1%

-25.4%

-47.3%

-70.5%

 

lehmq

196.3%

   

99.8%

 

-99.9%

 

 

ago

103.8%

42.8%

10.4%

53.8%

0.0%

-57.8%

-46.0%

 

key

109.1%

24.0%

10.0%

56.3%

-69.9%

-59.8%

 

47.7%

ffhs

58.5%

10.8%

10.1%

31.0%

 

No coverage

 

 

c

90.6%

30.9%

31.2%

47.0%

 

6.6%

-63.5%

-7.1%

wfc

-1.1%

8.6%

-7.5%

1.1%

4.7%

 

-15.2%

-9.3%

gs

74.2%

18.4%

39.8%

38.8%

-46.8%

 

-44.3%

-37.9%

mer

132.2%

33.8%

39.7%

67.8%

-72.3%

-67.8%

-76.4%

-44.8%

wb

163.4%

58.3%

63.3%

83.4%

 

No coverage

 

 

kfn

-72.8%

33.2%

 

-34.9%

-81.2%

 

-73.4%

 

jef

147.8%

60.5%

68.0%

75.4%

 

-45.4%

 

 

pnc

53.4%

43.4%

32.2%

27.8%

-80.9%

-80.6%

 

-83.6%

bpop

33.9%

21.9%

16.3%

18.0%

 

No coverage

 

 

sti

89.2%

33.1%

9.3%

45.7%

-27.1%

-43.9%

-51.1%

-48.3%

snv

65.8%

28.1%

7.8%

34.0%

-28.1%

 

-31.3%

20.7%

mi

57.3%

20.2%

7.0%

29.7%

-28.6%

28.9%

57.4%

-28.7%

asbc

57.6%

22.7%

-10.1%

29.9%

     

-46.8%

fctr

62.0%

13.4%

-15.1%

32.1%

 

No coverage

 

 

mtb

-1.0%

   

0.6%

-60.3%

-48.3%

-50.5%

-66.5%

hban

33.1%

16.2%

-8.1%

17.6%

10.6%

-10.9%

-27.3%

-38.2%

bbt

15.4%

9.5%

-21.0%

8.8%

10.6%

-10.9%

-27.3%

-38.2%

jpm

17.2%

21.6%

-10.6%

9.7%

-18.9%

-11.2%

 

-19.5%

usb

22.0%

6.5%

3.3%

12.1%

13.4%

-15.6%

-17.0%

-20.4%

cof

25.3%

15.3%

1.2%

13.7%

 

-24.7%

 

 

nara

51.8%

32.0%

10.0%

27.0%

 

No coverage

 

 

sasr

54.9%

35.5%

10.1%

28.5%

 

No coverage

 

 

hnbc

60.4%

19.3%

-16.6%

31.3%

 

No coverage

 

 

cvbf

16.8%

24.0%

9.0%

9.5%

 

No coverage

 

 

gbci

-8.0%

25.2%

1.1%

-2.9%

 

No coverage

 

 

fhn

7.3%

22.0%

-2.4%

4.8%

-54.3%

46.5%

-43.5%

44.8%

ncc

-29.6%

11.2%

-15.2%

-13.7%

-88.1%

-83.5%

-89.5%

-53.9%

cfc

16.6%

0.0%

0.0%

9.4%

 

No coverage

 

 

rf

95.5%

24.8%

3.6%

48.9%

-24.8%

-58.7%

-59.0%

 

zion

53.2%

21.0%

-15.6%

27.7%

-3.7%

-84.4%

-56.2%

-31.0%

tcbk

-15.5%

13.8%

-28.0%

-6.7%

 

No coverage

 

 

fitb

84.0%

31.5%

16.7%

43.1%

-62.2%

-19.1%

67.6%

59.9%

sov

140.7%

67.7%

69.9%

71.4%

-76.0%

   

 

ge

68.5%

23.5%

34.5%

35.1%

-51.8%

-55.0%

-55.0%

 

axp

68.0%

34.6%

32.6%

34.7%

 

-44.4%

-47.2%

 

hbc

42.7%

19.5%

21.5%

22.0%

   

28.2%

 

nav

95.7%

50.9%

52.8%

48.3%

   

-47.8%

 

wire

33.4%

16.9%

18.3%

17.2%

 

No coverage

 

 

sfd

70.2%

19.7%

36.5%

35.3%

   

-45.3%

-14.4%

Reggie's Returns

81.6%

30.6%

16.7%

42.4%

-30.6%

-33.0%

-40.2%

-22.4%

 

 

  As compared to ALL of the popularly followed indices...

 

BoomBustBlog's Holding period return (short, margin account)

Reggie's HPR without margin and commissions

Brokers (Holding period return)

Stock

1 month

3 months

Since invested

Citibank

Goldman Sachs

JP Morgan

Morgan Stanley

Reggie's Returns

81.6%

30.6%

16.7%

42.4%

-30.6%

-33.0%

-40.2%

-22.4%

DJI Index

 

-21.5%

-26.8%

-36.7%

 

 

 

 

CCMP INDEX

 

-25.0%

-30.5%

-38.6%

       

CTRN Index

 

-24.7%

-32.2%

-40.9%

       

UTIL Index

 

-20.1%

-28.3%

-29.5%

       

UKX Index

 

-22.7%

-27.2%

-36.7%

       

HSI Index

 

-27.1%

-40.5%

-36.3%

       

RTY Index

 

-29.2%

-30.2%

-37.3%

       

OEX Index

 

-21.6%

-27.4%

-38.0%

       

SPX Index

 

-24.5%

-30.1%

-39.8%

       

AS30 Index

 

-20.5%

-23.7%

-37.2%

       

SPTSX Index

 

-26.3%

-31.6%

-31.3%

       

MXWO Index

 

-27.2%

-34.3%

-41.5%

       

FTAW11 Index

 

-33.8%

-42.7%

-48.1%

       

MXEUG Index

 

-21.5%

-26.8%

-41.5%

       

MXWO Index

 

-27.2%

-34.3%

-41.5%

       

MXEU Index

 

-21.3%

-26.6%

-42.1%

       

DJGT Index

 

-22.9%

-29.7%

-39.8%

       

SGX Index

 

-24.7%

-30.2%

-36.8%

       

SVX Index

 

-24.4%

-29.9%

-42.7%