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As a Memorial Day gift to paying subscribers, I am offering a 22 page recession comparative analysis that shows specifically which indicators led the S&P 500 into an out of the last three recessions (of course, we are out of the last one yet, so the exit is incomplete). I noticed many people simply regurgitate what they hear in the media or from XYZ renowned pundit, in lieu of looking the data up for themselves. Many may be shocked to find out exactly what is a leading vs. a lagging indicator, and which indicators actually indicate nothing at all. This work should also go a long way in helping many discern whether we are in a bear market rally or the beginning of a new bull market, which is the reason why I commissioned it in the first place. I've always have to stress test my thesis!

Subscribers should feel free to discuss this (and only this) macro analysis openly in the public comments section, if they so desire. It can be downloaded here: An unbiased, independent retrospective comparative review - April 2009 An unbiased, independent retrospective comparative review - April 2009 2009-05-22 11:26:07 781.96 Kb. Professional/institutional subscribers also have access to the data-heavy 7.5 megabyte spreadsheet that was used to power the the analysis. Yes, I am feeling particularly generous today: Business Cycle Comparison Business Cycle Comparison 2009-05-22 11:17:12 7.44 Mb.