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This is an update to my bear market rally analysis. To date, this most recent run has been the longest and the steepest in the history of the stock market - the entire history of the stock market. This goes to show you that this is not an ordinary recession or bear market - that is unless you are of the camp that we have entered into a profitless bull market! I will be posting extensive macro data soon.

The current bear market rally which started on March 9, 2009 is into its 50th day and incidentally has surpassed the longest duration of bear market rallies observed during 1929 recession (42 days).  Next up is an update note on macro economic indicators to confirm if there is substantial evidence to validate the end of bear market - with downloadable excel files for subscribers.

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Bear market rallies

Start date

End date

Number of days

% Change

1

9-Mar-09

18-May-09

50.0

34.5%

2

20-Jan-09

28-Jan-09

7.0

8.6%

3

26-Dec-08

6-Jan-09

7.0

7.1%

4

20-Nov-08

8-Dec-08

12.0

20.9%

5

27-Oct-08

4-Nov-08

7.0

18.5%

6

10-Oct-08

20-Oct-08

7.0

9.6%

 

Average

 

15.0

16.5%

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Biggest rallies from peak to trough

Start date

End date

Staring Value

Ending Value

% change

No of days

13-Nov-1929

16-Dec-1929

199

246

24%

33

12-Aug-1930

11-Sep-1930

217

243

12%

30

3-Feb-1931

27-Feb-1931

170

190

12%

24

2-Jun-1931

6-Jul-1931

122

153

26%

34

1-Oct-1931

12-Nov-1931

96

112

17%

42

1-Jan-1932

14-Jan-1932

78

85

10%

13

8-Feb-1932

10-Mar-1932

73

86

17%

31

Average

 

 

 

17%

30

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