Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:82051 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:77701 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:77271 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:82017 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:78605 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:80905 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:47784 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:79607 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:79138 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:79683 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:84639 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:81607 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Additional contributions from the Chartists members of BoomBustBlog.com. Again, this is an op-ed from a reader and I do not warranty it or its contents in any form or fashion:

This is a long-term analysis of the SPY that gives you more of an idea how I frame macro moves. There are more detailed technical approaches to charting the markets that I won't get into right now, but as you can see, having a market technician would definitely help to frame and time many of your fundamental ideas.  Most of my earliest sell-signals came in 2005 from performing basic technical analysis on charted fundamental data about home buyer affordability, real-wage growth, SUV auto sales, personal debt consumption, home sales... but selling then would have wiped out most investors. Early technical warning sell signals in the market didn't emerge until 2007 with confirmed sell-signals coming in 2008.

These SPY chart demonstrate my top-down approach to technical analysis.

First Chart: SPY Monthly Chart 1998-2008, created May 30th 2008 (see upper left-hand corner of file - click to enlarge)
spx_long-term_sell_confirmed.jpg
I use this chart to show the similarities between the beginning of the 2000 bear market and this bear market that started in 2008. Same long-term sell signals, giving anyone very favorable risk/reward scenarios to initiation trades on the short side.  Furthermore, you can see the 2001 down move provides quite the blueprint for what would become this bear market.  In both instances, there is enough negative divergence to begin greatly reducing long exposure, implement hedging strategies and even consider initiating short positions well before, the confirmation is there on the charts.

Second Chart: SPY Weekly Chart 2001-2008, created May 17, 2009

Click to enlarge

spy_weekly_2001-2009.jpg

Starting from right to left:

  • Purple trendline illustrates the overall downtrend of the 2000 bear market, the break of the trendline in April 2003 provides a great long-term buy signal in the markets
  • Blue circle highlights the bottoming formation, confirmed double-bottom in 2002, follow by higher lows in 2003
  • White lines show positive divergence, as the trend of the RSI is up, while the market trend was flat to negative.
  • Red line captures the essence of the bull-market trend of the prolonged bounce off the 2003 higher lows
  • Yellow lines demonstrate the forming negative divergence in the market, not sell-signals, but signals to start taking profits protecting longs, using individual stock charts to manage positions
  • This divergence starts as the financial and housing stocks which led the market higher begin hover and fade as the rest of the market continues higher
  • Using purple trendline, Intermediate downtrend is established in Q4 2007, while long-term trend (red line) is still valid.
  • Red trendline, later is broken to the downside, giving strong signals that bull run is over
  • Backtest of bull market trend (red trendline), coincides with retest of now confirmed long-term bear market trend purpline) providing the most profitable short entry possible with minimal downside risk to position.
  • Second blue circle illustrates this attempted bottoming process, again showing many similarities to the 2002-03 bottom... however the distance from the bear trend (purple line), suggest this is a fake bottoming meant to trap eager longs
  • White lines display positve divergence similar to 2002 double-bottom
  • Short-term down trendline (orange) started in Q4 2008 is broken, giving longs more confidence to continue buying. 
  • Greenline shows buyers being met with resistance at a previous pivot high @ $94.45 from the 2nd week in January of this year
  • Greenline also happens to coincide with 200 day moving average on the daily chart (not shown, another source of major resistance an ideal place to initiate short entries.
  • Last week represented the first major reversal trading week since the March 9th bottom, ideal short-entry would be to sell any bounces in the market using $94.50 in the SPY as a trade stop.