Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:82091 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:77728 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:77298 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:82044 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:78636 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:80930 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:47813 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:79638 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:79162 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:79711 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:84682 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:81635 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Below are the results of my updated, proprietary GS model loosely based on the US government stress tests gs_stress_test_cover.jpg(albeit adjusted for reality via assumptions). The professional version is 132 pages of facts, figures and calculations. There is very little wording, so it is primarily for those who need to dig into the figures and don't have the manpower or expertise to go through the thousands of pages of reporting, particularly as it is now couched in accounting shenanigans.

Similar to the regional bank, asset manager and reinsurer stress tests soon to be released (in the next day or two, seriously), we have created 3 scenarios with RGE Monitor's estimates as the base case, The Fed's base line assumption as optimistic case and a distressed scenario. The Fed's baseline assumptions are on an average higher than RGE's estimates by a factor of 1.33x while under the adverse case the macroeconomic assumptions are lower by a factor of 0.80x. 

In addition to these three scenarios we have segregated accounting losses and economic losses since the new FASB guidelines gives more leeway to management regarding valuation of securities. This is a very big deal. I doubt there is such a report available anywhere on te net, and one has to wonder if even the government has access to such a high level of analysis. One tends to doubt that they do, considering the level of predictive ability demonstrated thus far.

Please take note of the new method of calculating the book value which should take some of the confusion out of fluctuating results that stem from the unprecedented market volatility over the last few quarters.

pdf  Goldman Sachs Stress Test Retail 2009-04-20 10:08:06 720.25 Kb - 17 pages

pdf  Goldman Sachs Stress Test Professional 2009-04-20 10:06:45 4.04 Mb - 131 pages

The completed table of contents:

Goldman Sachs 1Q09 results. 2

Summary. 4

Key assumptions. 4

GS' core business, Investment banking division, is expected to continue with its dismay performance in 2009. 5

Higher revenues from FICC is not expected to sustain going forward. 5

Plunging asset values and decline in AUM fee to impact asset management revenues  6

Investment write-downs. 6

Valuation.. 7

The Stress Test Results. 10

VAR and Risk Data. 10

Comparative Var Analysis. 12

CMBS Pressure Points and Other Risk Factors Not Reflect in VaR.. 16

Economic Writedowns. 20

Future Value of Assets (economic) 23

Future Value of Liabilities (economic) 32

Financial liabilities at fair value. 38

Movement in Level 3 Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities ($ mn) 44

Writedowns (accounting) 48

Future Value of Assets (accounting) 50

Financial Liabilities at Fair Value (accounting) 60

Movement in Level 3 Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities ($ mn) (accounting) 69

SFAS 157 and SFAS 159. 74

Debt Maturity. 76

Level Three Comparison.. 76

Level 2, Level 3, CDOs and Related Assets. 81

Revenue, Expense and Off Balance Sheet Loss Assumptions. 84

Relative Book Valuation.. 85

Financial Projections. 88

Income Drivers. 92

Key Ratios. 97

Unconsolidated Variable Interest Entity (VIE) Exposure. 99

Scenario Analysis. 103

Disclaimer 115

 

I encourage subscribers to discuss these documents and their own independent findings in detail in the private subscriber forums. I have had a rash of hedge fund managers sign up recently. This is a good time to put the brain trust to work!

 

Next on tap is the recast of the PNC Stress Test (with the new book value calculations and assumptions), Wells Fargo Stress test with the bifurcation of accounting and economic earnings (I will create two separate sets of books, just like WFC did!), and Morgan Stanley's Stress Test, as well as all of the other relevant research subjects I have covered that can benefit from the stress test, time and resources permitting.