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I am back everybody. The chess tournament thing takes a lot of time. I will start actively posting some fresh stuff today.

I have noticed some inaccuracies in the comment forum. My puts in PPD are currently extremely profitable. I have not been "Crushed" by the latest rally despite the fact that I didn't actively cover all of my bearish positions... As a matter of fact, I will challenge any short term trader or long only investor in terms of investment result over the last 12 or 24 months, even though they should have a deep advantage due to the latest and historically strongest ever bear market rally. I sense the rally has broken - either now or very soon - and just in time for earnings season. Hmmm! Anybody who has the wherewithal to peer into the real economic profits of losses of these companies should do well for the balance of the year.

Some have stated that the latest Goldman book value analysis was irrelevant since Meredith Whitney said Q1-09 results would look better. That is hogwash. First of all, Meredith Whitney is not a goddes that determines all (even though I do agree with her assement). Second, I believe my performance has bested hers throughout this crisis by a wide margin. That being said, I do have a lot of respect for her in regards to her gutsy and accurate calls. She is also one of the better looking analysts available on CNBC!

Regardless, the short term, "this quarter and that" mentality squanders the single biggest advantage that retail investors have over institutional investors - and that is the ability to think towards the future and to be patient. If anything, it is irrelevant what banks will do THIS quarter, since those that follow my research should be thinking 3 to 24 months out into the future.  The government engineered faux earnings results with artificially high NIM, fake spread tightening, phony accounting results via politically engineered mark to market  rules, artificially high prices for assets that nobody in the world wants, and free capital for banks whose management has already proven incompetent and whose business model has already failed. These results are a Band-aid brand bandage over a nine millimeter gunshot wound to the gut. If you look at it briefly, you may feel better about yourself, but value and economic capital are still gushing out of the hole.

I will walk all visitors through what is happening with PPD step by step with my public service announcement valuation series (on other words, for free), and will post what is going on with the reinsurance sector and the banks who may be affected by the PPIP. Finally, I will be running my own stress test analysis on the banks using the governments published guidelines, so for the paying subscribers of my blog, there should be no surprises (as long as everybody is on the up and up). This in itself is worth a subscription.