Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:88433 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:82150 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:82031 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:86534 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:82973 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:85100 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:56195 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:84419 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:84134 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:84000 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:90468 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:88049 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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The NYC metro area has the highest aggregate price index in the country and has declined the least. Many sales people in the area have preached (up until a few quarters ago) that NYC was somehow immune to the laws of economics. Well, BoomBustBloggers are smarter than that. NYC metro has also experienced the largest price decrease on record in the month of 11/2008, and that was before a serious wave of firings and layoffs.

Believe it or not, the aforementioned is the good news. The price index used excludes the vast majority of the most volatile housing stock in Manhattan (coops and condos) and the most ubiquitous housing stock in the outer boroughs (multi-family homes that can provide rental income). It also excludes investment properties and flips - a significant portion of NYC real estate. See "A reminder concerning popular housing indices". The Case Shiller index makes NYC real estate performance look downright rosy in comparison to actual reality! 

Wait! Before you walk away from that computer screen all dreary eyed, there's more. Let's not forget that the 6 main employment drivers in NYC have very recently been damaged or utterly destroyed. NYC is a populous and monied city that just so happens to be the world-wide mecca in the following:

  1. Finance via Wall Street - Well, Wall Street still exists (as in the street with that little green sign on it) but the bulge bracket investment bank is now relagated to history and 40% of what was the bulge bracket are literally no longer going concerns. THAT, my friend, is a dramatic change in one year's time. To add misty eyes to misery, everybody that is left is firing, en masse! Relevant research: pdf  Goldman Sachs' Bank Holding Company Fundamental Valuation and Forensic Analysis - Professional (267.49 kB 2008-12-18 10:12:37) and icon Morgan Stanley_final_040408 (1.38 MB 2008-08-30 06:37:54), Is Lehman really a Lying Lemming in Disguise and Is this the Breaking of the Bear?
  2. Media - The MSM (mainstream media) companies are dropping like flies, bankruptcy, restructuing, disappointing results, and yes,,,,, the "F" word - firing or if the PC prefer, "laying off"... See
  3. Marketing: Madison Avenue literally means Marketing. Companies are not thinking about marketing budgets now, they are thinking about SURVIVAL! Madison Avenue Marketing, both large firms and boutiques, are shrinking at a rapid clip.
  4. Insurance - Contrary to popular belief, Omaha and Hartford are not insurance meccas, it is NYC. That is why Eric Dinallo's name is mentioned so often when dealing with insurers and monolines. Subscribers of this blog know that many insurers are f#@$ed, and the insurance industry in general is entering a soft phase in terms of premiums - all insurance sectors - life, P&C and health. To make things worse, insurers are the largest investors in financial company securities Uh Oh! See The Butterfly is Released!) and commercial mortgages (see GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house for a textbook view of a commercial real estate empire collapsing.  Relvant research:  pdf  Hartford Insurance Group Forensic Analysis - Pro (619.29 kB 2008-11-22 06:30:43) pdf  HIG Actionable Item (189.75 kB 2008-11-22 06:32:24) pdf  HIG Actionable Intelligence Update 8-12-08 (49.96 kB 2008-12-08 08:54:33) pdf  Hartford Insurance Group spreads and counterparty/debt holders - pro (149 kB 2008-11-22 06:31:47) ,  and  pdf  Principal Financial Group Actionable Intelligence Note - Pro version (252.74 kB 2009-01-15 11:18:50). I will be producing a lot more in this space, for I feel the exposure to loss is truly, truly under appreciated.
  5. Residential and Commercial Real Estate - See (again) see GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house and well as  pdf  Macerich Forensic Valuation - Professional (344.92 kB 2008-11-28 14:47:43) and pdf  Forest City Enterprise Peer Comparison (198.98 kB 2007-12-24 15:42:06) . NYC has the largest (in dollar terms), deepest, and broadest residential, commercial and office real estate market in the world. It has a long way to fall, and will bring the dependent services sectors along with it, ex. brokerage, law, leasing and agencies, management, construction and development. We're talking a lot of jobs, people!
  6. Municipal employment: As one of the largest and prominent cities in the world, NYC is one of the largest and most prominent employers. Like most other cities in this country, NYC management binged on the free punch that was bubblistic construction permits and property tax revenues, increasing it's budget to unrealistic levels and when the bubble popped, NYC budget went pop along with it. There are now probably over a hundred thousand jobs being reviewed for the chopping block. This was not hard to see coming. See

What should you take form this heavily hyperlinked bulleted list? Massive, and I mean MASSIVE unemployment. I am a life long NYC resident, and I see it all around me. Friends in finance are getting laid off faster than Spitzer can apologize about pretty ladies. If you think the real estate market was soft last year, you ain't seen nuthin' yet. Much of the new construction condo market (the bulk of Manhattan inventory this year) was actually dependent on something as fickle and volatile as Wall Street bonuses! Unfortunately, powerful factions of our government are still concerned with maintaining the already popped real estate bubble then addressing the pertinent problems at hand, primarily employment (See I guess I need to go back to DC)

From the Real Deal, the most prominent NYC real estate rags:

City sees record home price drop
New York City posted its largest monthly home-price decline on record in November 2008, according to S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index data released this week. Home prices within a 50-mile radius of New York City fell 1.6 percent between October and November, the largest drop in over 20 years, and 8.6 percent year over year, according to the index. Since the data does not include condo or co-op units, the report primarily reflects home prices in the outer boroughs, Connecticut, New Jersey and Westchester County. But the New York metropolitan area still has the highest index value, at 186.81, of any of the 20 cities measured by the index. This indicates that homes in the area have held their value better than homes in the other areas. The index was set at a base value of 100 in January 2000, meaning that homes in the New York metropolitan area have appreciated 86.81 percent since then. Of the 20 cities surveyed, seven others -- Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Portland and Seattle -- also posted their largest recorded monthly declines in November. TRD
 

Now, as usual, I have a lot of "I told you so's" from as far back as 2 years ago. See...

Manhattan Real Estate is Falling. That's Right, I said it!!! And Beware Those with Short Term Memory
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

When the residential real estate market falls hard, it falls. New York (Manhattan, too) is different from many other regions because it is denser, harder to build new supply, and has a generally rich
Thursday, 04 October 2007

Thursday, 18 October 2007

 Bubbles, Bank, & Builders - Pt IV: I can't believe this guy
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Apparently, the Citibank analyst that has issued several bullish reports on the builders during their downturn is at it again. Citibank has enormous analytical resources, considerably more so than my
Monday, 24 December 2007
 
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
The National Association of Realtors released results stating sales actually rose .04% (statistically significant?), but were down 20% from last year with prices down across the board. The
Tuesday, 01 January 2008
 

Straight Talk From the Homebuilder CFO: The Coming Land Recession, Pt I
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This is actually a two part series within a twenty part series from an anonymous guest blogger.  I fully believe we are in a land recession.  In part one I am going to walk you through basic land theo
Thursday, 11 October 2007

Straight Talk From the Homebuilder CFO: The Coming Land Recession, Pt II
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Thursday, 11 October 2007