Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:87246 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:81160 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:81006 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:85476 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:81976 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:84158 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:55222 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:83424 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:83162 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:83053 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:89312 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:87025 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Radio broadcasting companies, an out-of-favor sector with investors and media consumers, are extremely leveraged and facing difficult business environment.
With the advent of the internet, audio related media distribution barriers to entry have come down dramatically. The dissemination of news has encountered a paradigm shift with the advent of blogs, including the one owned by yours truly. With arguably better content, easier and more customizable access, and a rapidly changing business model that is difficult to grasp by the traditional MSM (mainstream media) management, the Web has literally painted a R.I.P. sign on the coffin covers of many a once might radio station holding company. Are TV station companies next? Did this truly have to come to pass, or was the changing of the guard inevitable? Should Bloomberg, or Murdoch or Curtco Media buy a stake in BoomBustBlog.com to hedge their future?

 

 

Radio broadcasting companies had significantly increased their debt levels during consolidation phase that narrowed the industry to just a few big players. Due to difficult capital markets situations borne from the Asset Securitization Crisis these companies are now facing a liquidity squeeze. To add to the fray, the industry is facing new competition from iPods, satellite broadcasters, Web streaming services/technology and mobile phones. In addition to growing competition, the financial crisis which is affecting the U.S. economy is leading to lower demand for advertising, thus adversely affecting the sector’s ability to register growth in advertising revenues. Huge debt levels and declines in advertising revenues for radio broadcasters have led to a sharp decline in valuations of the sector players. While the radio broadcasting companies continue to face a difficult operating environment and are under huge debt liabilities, most of these companies have already witnessed a decline of more than 90% in their stocks and are trading at less than a dollar per share suggesting that much of the negative outlook regarding their future prospects is already factored in their current share price. Registered users can download the accompanying spreadsheet with additional metrics.  pdf  Radio Broadcaster Snapshot (1017 kB 2008-11-17 12:55:13)

 

Ticker

Last price

Shares O/S

Market Cap

1 m

3 m

1 yr

EV / EBITDA

P/E

P/S

P/B

P/ Adj BV

EMMS US Equity

0.40

      35.6

         14.5

0%

-2%

-91%

10.48

N/A

0.04

0.06

-0.16

CDL US Equity

0.18

    263.9

         48.6

-10%

-1%

-93%

8.63

N/A

0.05

0.13

-0.22

ETM US Equity

0.70

      38.7

         26.5

-50%

-6%

-96%

N/A

1.03

0.06

0.05

-0.69

CCO US Equity

5.11

    355.5

    1,817.6

-16%

-12%

-81%

5.12

8.64

0.53

0.28

31.26

CMLS US Equity

0.62

      43.6

         26.3

-70%

-85%

-94%

73.11

N/A

0.08

0.19

-0.46

                       

Emmis:

  • EMMIS has total assets of $1,147 mn including intangibles (FCC license) of $801 mn and goodwill of $81 mn.
  • The company has total shareholders’ equity of $254 mn including $270 mn of accumulated deficit.
  • The company is highly leveraged with debt-to-equity of 174%. Emmis has debt-to-FCF and debt-to-OCF of 11.0x and 9.4x, respectively.
  • The company’s net income has declined consecutively since 2005 declining from $358 mn in 2005 to $114 mn in 2006 and further to a loss of $1 mn in 2007.
  • The stock has declined 91% over the past one year and is currently trading at $0.40 with P/B of 0.06x and P/S of 0.04x

 

Ticker

Debt / Market Cap

Debt / Equity

Debt / Assets

Debt / TTM EBITDA

Debt /
FCF

Debt /
OCF

EMMS

3026%

174%

38%

7.9

11.0

9.4

CDL

4590%

593%

66%

8.7

14.0

13.0

ETM

3470%

168%

54%

-27.2

10.9

9.8

CCO

143%

117%

42%

2.9

6.2

3.7

CMLS

2751%

492%

67%

62.4

17.6

15.7

 

 

 

Citadel Broadcasting:

  • Citadel Broadcasting has total assets of $3.4 bn including $2.0 bn of intangibles representing FCC license and $0.7 bn of goodwill. 
  • The company has an accumulated deficit of $1.7 bn and total shareholders’ equity of $376 mn.
  • The debt-to-equity and debt-to-assets is at 593% and 66%, respectively. Citadel’s debt-to-FCF is at 14.0x and debt-to-OCF is at 13.0x.
  • The company’s revenues have increased nearly 62% in 2007 and first half of 2008 due to acquisition of ABC Radio on June 12, 2007. However, in 3Q2008 the company’s revenues declined 11% y-o-y.
  • The company’s gross margins have declined to 59% in 3Q2008 as against 63% in 3Q2007.
  • The share price has witnessed a decline of 93% over the past one year and is trading at 18 cents. At current price the stock trades at P/S of 0.05X, and P/B of 0.13x.

 

 

 

 

 

Gross margin

Net income margin

Ticker

2005

2006

2007

2Q-07

3Q-07

2Q-08

3Q-08

2005

2006

2007

2Q-07

3Q-07

2Q-08

3Q-08

EMMS

33.2%

28.8%

25.3%

27.2%

27.9%

27.4%

 

94.8%

31.6%

-0.4%

14.7%

0.1%

3.7%

 

CDL

71.7%

71.3%

64.8%

71.4%

63.3%

61.9%

59.4%

16.6%

-11.1%

-178.6%

2.7%

-186.4%

-109.8%

13.1%

ETM

42.2%

40.9%

39.5%

40.1%

41.5%

39.8%

38.3%

18.1%

10.9%

-1.8%

-10.0%

11.4%

-77.8%

3.7%

CCO

47.4%

45.5%

45.1%

48.7%

46.9%

46.4%

43.1%

2.3%

5.3%

7.5%

8.2%

6.7%

8.8%

1.1%

CMLS

30.5%

35.7%

35.6%

38.5%

37.7%

36.3%

36.5%

-64.9%

-13.2%

-68.2%

2.9%

-83.8%

36.2%

7.5%

 

                           

Entercom:

  • In 3Q2008 Entercom’s revenues and net income declined 6% and 70%, respectively. Also, in 3Q2008 the company suspended dividend payment due to difficult business conditions.
  • The company has total assets of $1.7 bn including FCC license of $1.5 bn.
  • Entercom’s total shareholders’ equity including accumulated deficit of $37 mn stood at $547 mn at the end of 3Q2008.
  • The company has debt-to-equity of 168% and has debt-to-FCF and debt-to-OCF of 10.9x and 9.8x, respectively,
  • The stock price has declined 96% over the past one year and is currently trading at 70 cents with a P/S and P/B of 0.06x and 0.05x, respectively.

 

 

 

Revenue growth

Gross profit growth

Net Income growth

Ticker

2006

2007

2Q-08

3Q-08

2006

2007

2Q-08

3Q-08

2006

2007

2Q-08

3Q-08

EMMS

-5%

0%

-2%

N/A

-17%

-12%

-1%

N/A

-68%

N/A

-75%

N/A

CDL

3%

66%

62%

-11%

3%

51%

41%

-16%

N/A

-2577%

N/A

N/A

ETM

2%

7%

-1%

-6%

-1%

3%

-2%

-13%

-39%

N/A

-671%

-70%

CCO

9%

13%

9%

-1%

4%

12%

4%

-9%

149%

61%

17%

-83%

CMLS

2%

-2%

-4%

-5%

19%

-2%

-10%

-8%

N/A

-407%

1093%

N/A

 

Clear Channel:

  • Clear Channel reported a 1% and 83% decline in revenues and net income in 3Q2008, respectively.
  • Clear Channel’s gross margin has declined to 43% in 3Q2008 as against 49% in 3Q2007.
  • The Company has debt-to-equity and debt-to-assets of 117% and 42%, respectively with debt-to-FCF and debt-to-OCF of 6.2x and 3.7x, respectively.
  • The stock has witnessed a decline of 81% over the past one year and is trading at $5.1 per share. At current price the share commands P/S and P/B multiple of 0.53x and 0.28x., respectively.

 

Cumulus Media:

  • Cumulus is highly leveraged with debt-to-equity of 492% and debt-to-assets of 62%.
  • The company has total assets of $1,085 mn including intangibles (including license) and goodwill of $883 mn.
  • As of September 2008, Cumulus had an accumulated deficit of $558 mn and total shareholders’ equity of $147 mn while Cumulus had total debt of $725 mn. The company’s term loan facility is expected to mature on June, 2014.
  • As a result of declining ad spends, the company’s revenues are facing downward pressure. The company’s revenues have witnessed a decline of 2% in 2007 and y-o-y decline of 4% and 5% in 2Q2008 and 3Q2008. Further, based on management guidance revenues are expected to decline between 9.0% and 11.0% in 4Q2008 over 4Q2007.
  • The company has high debt-to-FCF and debt-to-operating cash flow (OCF) at 17.6x and 15.7x, respectively.
  • The stock has witnessed a decline of 94% over the past one year and is currently trading at $0.62. The stock at the current price is trading at P/S of 0.08x, P/B of 0.19x.

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