Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:84610 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:79081 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:78928 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:83414 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:79978 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:82285 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:53259 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:81291 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:81292 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:81101 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:86951 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:84969 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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For those of you who go to dog shows, they have the term best in show for the best dog overall... since all builder stocks are dogs, my lowest rating is worst in show and I award it to more than one dog... because i'm nice

Losing the worst in show rating is very very hard......  it means you suck so bad I question your viability... perma red thumb

thoughts on macro bankruptcy count

The editor of big builder magazine appears to agree with the consensus that 1 of every 3 large builders (both private and public) is going to go under... unofficially we are at 4 of the top 200 so we have another 46 to go...

In a previous blog dated 9/25 I had stated that 8 publics of the 21 I track would be going bankrupt, delisted or bought by bondholders at a lower price than they were trading at....  I don't track AVTR (and they are a top 50 homebuilder), but my percentage was 36% if you include AVTR....  Going forward I will track their numbers too...

Beazer downgrade to worst in show

One of the homebuilders I had as a potential bankruptcy was BZH.  However, on my 20 of 20 blog post I had BZH as a special situation crap pick.  In other words, this stock is a piece of crap, but because of the lack of visibility it is hard to tell how bad their situation is...

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Well accidently, I missed some of their numbers on their 8k dated Oct 5...  in reading an analyst report this morning I grabbed these missing numbers and put them in my spreadsheet....  wow!!!!  they are bad!!!!!  after the 8k was issued the stock started trending down to the 8s, but shot up huge on the short covering rally...

Here are the numbers that concern me

68% cancellation rate (worst among the publics)  remember, a cancellation a lot of times can result in a future unsold spec depending upon the stage the house was in when cancelled... both a cash drain and will have to be sold at a deep discount to move..

YOY orders drop 52%... again the worst among the publics for the most recent quarter!!!!!  remember there are 21 I track and you are number 21 in these 2 important categories

Monthly sales absorption per community.. because I dont have an updated community count I used Junes... they are averaging 0.7 net sales per community... guess... that is right #21 of 21 builders...  my god I can't even believe this number.... 

There is a lack of visibility in backlog, but my estimate is 2.3 months.... worst in the industry...  remember how long it takes to build a home... call it 4 months... so if you drain your backlog where is the cash coming from during that 4 month period of cash out flow with few sales from backlog?

Now they did increase their cash position to 400 million, however, they had as of last quarter a debt to capital ratio of 58%....  not worst in the industry but in the bottom 1/3

Thus, I have no choice but to downgrade BZH from special situation crap to worst in show....  this thing will probably tank when they (if they ever) provide us financials

also, they spent 18 million towards the bondholders to get them to amend the bonds so that they didn't have to report their financials within the time period allocated... another total waste of 18 million