Hits: 2905

It appears to be at the expense of others.Cliff diving, sky diving, spillunking, whatever you want to call it - my bearish outlook was given much more meat today.

From Bloomberg :

Morgan Stanley said its agreement to raise $9 billion from Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. is ``on track'' after speculation the deal may fall through caused the company's stock to drop as much as 40 percent.

``The deal is proceeding on track'' and will close as soon as this weekend, said Mark Lake, a spokesman for New York-based Morgan Stanley. ``The deal is expected to close imminently upon expiration of the Federal Reserve's five-day post-approval waiting period.''

The Fed and other ``key global regulators'' have approved the agreement by Japan's largest bank last week to buy $3 billion of Morgan Stanley's common stock at $25.25 apiece and $6 billion of convertible preferred stock, Morgan Stanley said in a statement. The shares have closed below $25.25 every day since the agreement was reached.

``There's a rumor Mitsubishi may pull out,'' Fred Froewiss, vice president of institutional sales at RF Lafferty & Co. in New York, said earlier today. ``Maybe they're getting cold feet because of the freeze in the credit markets. The market is really trading on whispers and fear.''

Morgan Stanley dropped $5.85, or 25 percent, to $17.65 at 4:21 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after falling as low as $14.13 earlier in the day.

From Reggie: When will the Asians get tired of losing money. It is much TOO EARLY to go long on investment banks, MUCH TOO EARLY.

The Riskiest Bank on the Street

(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

Key highlights of my research on the "Riskiest Investment Bank on the Street": The Riskiest Bank on Wall Street – Morgan Stanley has US$74 billion of Level 3 assets, over 200% of its eq
Monday, 11 February 2008
A closer look at the exposure of the other brokers
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...- Who has the most of their assets tied up in illiquid Level 3 as a proportion to tangible equity? You guessed it, The Riskiest Bank on the Street. Now, they do have a decent amount of liquidity the ...
Sunday, 16 March 2008

19. On the insolvencies of non-bank financial institutions
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...Bullsh1+ part 1 Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 2 Money Panic Bear Fight The Breaking of the Bear The Riskiest Bank on the Street Here comes the CRE Bust (Quip on Lehman Brothers)...
Tuesday, 18 March 2008

20. Quick Morgan Stanley update from my lab
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
  This is a refresher to the The Riskiest Bank on the Street piece that I posted a few months ago on Morgan Stanley. Let me get straight to the salient points. High exposure to lev
Thursday, 20 March 2008

22. Reggie Middleton on the Street's Riskiest Bank - Update
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This is the update to my forensic deep dive analysis of Morgan Stanley. It is still, in my opinion, the "riskiest bank on the street". A few things to make note of as you browse through my opinion a
Sunday, 06 April 2008

23. Banks, Brokers & Bullsh1t 3.0: Shenanigans at Morgan and Lehman
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I've been promising to give an illustration of the shenanigans being played by the commercial and investment bank's for some time now, but I've been quite busy working on my entrepeneurial pursuits
Wednesday, 16 April 2008

24. I warned you about the risk of those I Banks
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...ive counterparty and credit risk to imperfect hedges to dead and depreciating assets held off balance sheet: The Riskiest Bank on the Street Is this the Breaking of the Bear? Banks, Broke...
Wednesday, 21 May 2008


Then there is GGP. I've got a few emails inquiring about them. They closed at $4.71 today. Damn! I closed my position in the low teens, down from the 50's. You can never say I didn't tell you so. They are definitely a takeover candidate now - and the think that management said there will be no fire sales of assets. Now, the whole company is a fire sale. To put this into perspective, this is the 2nd largest REIT in America, in terms of nominal asset value.


My public postings started with The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way! I have been posting away on CRE ever since. I consider GGP to be (one of the) poster child(ren) of CRE excesses during the credit boom. A summary of some of the anlaysis can be found here: GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house

 Note to GGP management: don't take this personally, but...
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

...te that was attributed to me sounds a bit callous, and that was not my intention. I truly believe that GGP has some serious issues, but I did not intent to make light of them or belittle them. Just wa...
Friday, 22 August 2008

97. Reggie prepares to throw a bomb into the investment banking crowd
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Frank Quattrone, tech company investment banking extraordinaire, shares his views on Wall Street research - and I feel compelled to comment... See NYT article for the full spread (forgvie me NYT, for
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

98. GGP article in Vegas
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
General Growth faces financial shortfall Mall company delays developments as mounting debt comes due By BENJAMIN SPILLMAN REVIEW-JOURNAL They quoted some handsome fella here.
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

99. And even more on GGP...
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This appears to be harp on GGP insider sales day. First a comment frrom a BoomBustBlogger, then my own observations: From a blog reader - VP sells 50k shares, then CEO buys 10k shares VP
Tuesday, 12 August 2008

100. Even more margin calls at GGP?
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Jean Schlemmer, the Chief of Corporate Development at GGP, has just dumped 50,000 shares @ $27.29 (totalling just under $1.4 million), a full 25% of his/her total holdings in the company. My assumpti
Monday, 11 August 2008

101. GGP Margin Calls: this is just the beginning!
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I'm sure most of you who follow GGP have heard about this by now, but I am here to give you a different perspective. First, let's look at what just happend... From the WSJ: A steep decli
Sunday, 10 August 2008

102. GGP Shenanigans: How much value do you place on the credibility of management?
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This is a continuation of GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house, basically an update to include the latest earnings information. And yes, this is st
Wednesday, 06 August 2008

GGP Shenanigans?
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
According to Reuters, GGP said on Wednesday that funds from operations rose 8.4 percent, in part from the acquisition of a former partnership. Second-quarter funds from operations, or FFO, were
Wednesday, 30 July 2008

105. Citi and Wachovia downgrade GGP, after a 50% drop in price
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Citi and Wachovia downgrade GGP after it gets cut in half. Great job fellas! Unfortunately, I couldn't afford to be a client of yours. I just don't have the money to spare. For those new to the site
Thursday, 31 July 2008