Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:82075 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:77714 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:77284 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:82030 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:78621 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:80917 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:47800 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:79622 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:79149 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:79699 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:84665 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:81621 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Reggie Middleton's BoomBustBlog research outperforms, by a wide margin!

Let's contrast the worst year in recorded hedge fund history to the past year and year to day of the a model portfolio built upon the BoomBustBlog.com research and opinion. BTW, the article is correct in that although funds charge a lot of money, their performance has beaten the broad averages of late, and the better ones outperform the broad market in general. But!!!! There's always a but, isn't it? There are better ways to skin a cat. Let's take a look-see.

 

blogvsfund2.png

 

 As you can see, if one were to buy or sell (short) the stocks opined accordingly in this blog's downloadable pdf reports the first trading day available the reports were released, and simply held the position until today (to be referenced as the "blog model"), you would have thoroughly trounced the S&P500 broad market and outperformed the Barclay's Hedge Fund Index by considerably over 50x, not to mention positive performance while the hedge fund indices and broad (US and global) market indices were negative! My proprietary trading account is primarily buy and hold in principle, but the extreme volatility in the markets has forced me to do some trading. I also make very heavy use of options, risk management, cash management, etc. and I am not afraid to use leverage, although I have not utilized any for over a year. This has allowed me to set realistic ROI goals approaching 400% (unfortunately, I cannot discuss my actual personal performance). After getting to know some of the blog users a little better, I have come to realize that many could benefit from trading (or at least buy and sell) guidance. I have been reticent to give such for a variety of reasons, but I am pondering several solutions that can help my consituency.

If one were to extend the horizon to one year or past, what would the outcome be?

blogvsfund1.png

 The blog's research model outpeformed the hedge fund index by over 33x, and the broad market index is not easily comparable, with nearly 100 percent spread in performance. I would consider this dramatic, indeed.

If we were to parse through Barclay's index to search for outlying overperformance, would it compare to this blog's staid "model"? Let's see...

Year to date:

copy_of_copy_of_blog_chart_with_shaun_updates_part_2_no_money_10809_image001.png

The closest runner up is the Short Equity Bias index, wiht a mere 27% of the blog's research model performance. If we look back for an entire year...

copy_of_copy_of_blog_chart_with_shaun_updates_part_2_no_money_10809_image003.png

The second runner up inches slightly closer, but still now cigar, 32% of the Blog's research performance. For those that are wondering, over 2,600 funds report to this index. So, I ask, should a blog charge 2 and 20? 

We have started receiving our first few institutional clients, a few of the very large global banks are coming on board. I would expect to see a lot more soon.

Update on the next phase of my investment thesis

The positions taken on the "next phase" companies opined on have returned handsomely. Smithfield Foods has been a standout. 66% percent of my position was popped out due to hitting my (way out of the money) profit targets. The remaining position has returned many multiples.

sfdchart.gif

This serves to bolster my conviction in the thesis, but dampens my spirits, for the veracity of the thesis is predicated upon rather dire economic events unfolding. I have decided to release the Smithfield report to non-paying subscribers and the general public due to the amount of price movement that has already occurred, and to exemplify the quality of research that my team has produced in this sector that is a universe away from the financial services, insurance and real estate that we have been covering for the past year.

I would like to add that the Navistar report should have enabled those who believe in the research to take advantage of the big pop emanating from the surprise earnings announcement. Any who did were handsomely rewarded. Feel free to download Smithfield Foods Professional report here:icon SFD_Pro Report_Final_240908 (286.98 kB 2008-09-25 01:32:23)

There is a lot of content on tap, and coming very soon. The bankruptcy candidates are also on their way...

Here is a listing of the companies opined, and a a link to at least one of the posts containing an opinion. The column on the far right refers to those companies who I performed an actual forensic analysis or deep study on. The coluimn to the left of it simply lists all the companies mentioned. Be aware that I may mention a company without feeling strongly enough about it to take a position. 

The timeline of BoomBustBlog analysis 

               
Blog post date Companies negatively Blogged Price as of Blog Date or following trading day 9/30/2008 % change Assumed Holding Period in Months Holding Period Return  
1-Sep-07 len $28.57 $13.81 (51.66%)  12.97 95.87% 95.87%
  hov $12.60 $7.62 (39.52%)           12.97 73.56% 73.56%
  phm $16.95 $13.89 (18.05%)           12.97 30.61% 30.61%
  ctx $29.12 $15.36 (47.25%)           12.97 89.01% 89.01%
  dhom $2.08 $0.55 (73.56%)           12.97 141.62% 141.62%
1-Sep-07 bzh $11.29 $5.62 (50.22%)           12.97 94.95% 94.95%
  rdn $18.11 $4.36 (75.92%)           12.97 146.36% 146.36%
  mtg $30.34 $6.72 (77.85%)           12.97 150.21% 150.21%
1-Sep-07 dhi $15.41 $12.10 (21.48%)           12.97 37.47% 37.47%
  tol $21.84 $24.38 11.63%           12.97 (28.75%) (28.75%)
  bsc $114.13 $8.72 (92.36%)           12.97 175.48% 175.48%
  cfc $19.81 $4.25 (78.55%)           12.97 151.60% 151.60%
3-Sep-07 mbi $61.92 $10.85 (82.48%)           12.90 159.46% 159.46%
  abk $64.63 $2.17 (96.64%)           12.90 187.79% 187.79%
8-Sep-07 wm $34.74 $0.16 (99.54%)           12.93 193.59% 193.59%
16-Oct-07 ryl $23.96 $25.38 5.93%           11.67 (17.34%) (17.34%)
19-Dec-07 ms $50.08 $20.99 (58.09%)           11.67 110.68% 110.68%
8-Jan-08 ggp $33.90 $14.21 (58.08%)           11.67 110.67% 110.67%
14-Jan-08 bac $39.22 $30.25 (22.87%)             8.53 43.17% 43.17%
25-Jan-08 kbh $23.65 $19.34 (18.22%)             8.17 33.87% 33.87%
19-Feb-08 leh $53.57 $0.00 (100.00%)             7.37 197.43% 197.43%
8-Feb-08 ago $21.57 $15.68 (27.31%)             7.73 52.04% 52.04%
21-Feb-08 key $23.03 $9.80 (57.45%)             7.30 112.32% 112.32%
25-Feb-08 ffhs $8.40 $6.50 (22.62%)             7.17 42.66%  
  ms $45.28 $20.99 (53.64%)             7.17 104.71% 104.71%
  c $24.74 $17.75 (28.25%)             7.17 53.93% 53.93%
  wfc $31.69 $33.25 4.92%             7.17 (12.42%) (12.42%)
  gs $177.36 $120.70 (31.95%)             7.17 61.32% 61.32%
  mer $54.42 $22.00 (59.57%)             7.17 116.57%  
  wb $34.72 $1.84 (94.70%)             7.17 186.83% 186.83%
17-Mar-08 bsc $4.81 $9.33 93.97%             6.43 180.18% 180.18%
27-Mar-08 kfn $12.71 $6.93 (45.48%)             6.10 88.38% 88.38%
2-Apr-08 jef $17.15 $20.00 16.62%             5.93 -35.81%  
15-May-08 pnc $69.39 $68.00 (2.00%)             4.50 1.43% 1.43%
22-May-08 bpop $11.52 $8.07 (29.95%)             4.27 57.32%  
  sti $54.85 $38.75 (29.35%)             4.27 56.13% 56.13%
  snv $12.32 $10.25 (16.80%)             4.27 31.03%  
  mi $23.59 $18.00 (23.70%)             4.27 44.82%  
  asbc $28.29 $19.40 (31.42%)             4.27 60.27%  
  fctr $30.20 $30.02 (0.60%)             4.27 (1.38%)  
  mtb $89.89 $80.00 (11.00%)             4.27 19.43% 19.43%
  hban $9.23 $7.45 (19.28%)             4.27 35.99% 35.99%
  bbt $33.44 $31.00 (7.30%)             4.27 12.02%  
  jpm $43.05 $41.00 (4.76%)             4.27 6.95%  
  usb $33.24 $32.75 (1.47%)             4.27 0.37%  
  cof $48.92 $44.00 (10.06%)             4.27 17.54% 17.54%
  wm $9.45 $0.16 (98.31%)             4.27 194.04% 194.04%
  cfc $4.69 $4.25 (9.38%)             4.27 16.19% 16.19%
  rf $19.14 $8.25 (56.90%)             4.27 111.22%  
  zion $43.47 $34.25 (21.21%)             4.27 39.85%  
  tcbk $15.92 $19.70 23.74%             4.27 -50.06%  
  fitb $19.88 $9.11 (54.18%)             4.27 105.78%  
  sov $8.78 $2.33 (73.46%)             4.27 144.35%  
16-Jun-08 ge $28.97 $23.10 (20.26%)             3.47 37.95% 37.95%
30-Jul-08 axp $37.54 $32.55 (13.29%)             2.00 25.68% 25.68%
30-Jul-08 hbc $82.32 $77.80 (5.49%)             2.00 10.07% 10.07%
21-Aug-08 nav $55.30 $51.26 (7.31%)             1.30 14.12% 14.12%
26-Aug-08 wire $18.70 $17.73 (5.19%)             1.13 9.88% 9.88%
11-Sep-08 sfd $21.00 $14.36 (31.62%)             0.63 62.75% 62.75%
               
          Average Average Average
  1/1/2208     Since 7/07             7.47 64.41% 71.31%
  17-Dec-03     Year to Date             5.42 50.19% 53.73%
A verbose listing of posts and articles concerning the stocks above can be found in "More on the accuracy of this blog's research " and a compendium of recent yet pleasant emails to the author can be found here: Some pleasant emails.