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During the 3rd quarter of last year, when the residential real estate market started falling apart, I made the prediction (well, it was more of a guarantee) that the commercial real estate sector will collapse. This was not a popular viewpoint at the time, but to me it was a foregone conclusion. See

Well, fast forward a little over a year and I have one of my astute payring subscribers point out the following to me:

"When you started you analysis of the CRE market, you had a rough list of short candidates you released in Jan 08. I took the list and selected the stocks that had a share price above or near 20 and plugged in yesterday's prices.  Guess what, check the table below!!!"

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Symbol 8-Jan 8-Oct Change ($) Change %
EJ 29.52 6.12 -23.4 -79%
IEP 124.8 33.89 -90.91 -73%
JLL 82.86 33.28 -49.58 -60%
FCEA 52.77 23.73 -29.04 -55%
FCEB 53.01 23.89 -29.12 -55%
CBG 19.38 9.45 -9.93 -51%
APO 20.25 9.95 -10.3 -51%
BRER 35 17.5 -17.5 -50%
CHEUY 18.9 10.7 -8.2 -43%
CTO 66.6 38.13 -28.47 -43%
APSA 16.5 9.79 -6.71 -41%
BPO 21.84 14.2 -7.64 -35%
HOFD 63 42.5 -20.5 -33%
FCY 24.46 17 -7.46 -30%
AVTR 45.86 32.9 -12.96 -28%
BAM 34.66 25 -9.66 -28%
WPC 34.51 25.42 -9.09 -26%
GYRO 48.2 38.09 -10.11 -21%
STRS 32.84 26.12 -6.72 -20%
JOE 30.5 37.6 7.1 23%

I'll be spending much of the weekend coordinating a voter registration drive, but I'm going to try to get another short list and macro report out as well. The short ban lifts Wednesday. Things should get interesting, to say the least!