Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:88602 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:82283 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:82175 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:86671 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:83102 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:85224 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:56328 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:84566 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:84259 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:84118 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:90619 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:88187 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Regarding the financial projections for Navistar.

Although we do no rely entirely on company’s guidance while making financial projections and instead take into account the overall macro economic picture, global and industry trends and company’s competitive position within the industry,  we do give reasonable consideration to management guidance as well.  We do not altogether ignore the management’s discussion and statements about future industry and company scenario and critically examine management’s guidance in light of current environment to see if the company could meet the guidance.

Based on our independent analysis of the auto industry and Navistar, following is the variance between the financial projections for Navistar and company’s guidance.

 

 

Company's Guidance

Estimates

Revenues 2008

$15 bn +

$14.1 bn

Income before tax 2008

$380 mn  -$510 mn

$335 mn

Net Income 2008

$312 mn - $418 mn

$271 mn

EPS 2008

$4.26 - $5.72

$3.71

 

 

 

Industry shipments

15-19% decline

 

Navistar shipments

 

14% decline

 

 

 

Revenues 2009

$15 bn +

$16.1 bn

Profit from manufacturing segment

$1.6 bn

 

Income before tax 2009

$1,100 mn - $1,200 mn

$370 mn

 

We believe that Navistar’s 2009 guidance for income before tax seems quite unreasonable under the current circumstances due to following reasons. Navistar expects profit from manufacturing segment at $1.6 bn on total revenues of $15 mn implying a margin of 10.7% while in 2007 Navistar’s reported manufacturing profit of $426 mn on total revenues of $12.3 bn ( margin of 3.5%) . Also in 1H2008, Navistar generated total revenues of $6.9 bn while profit from manufacturing segment was $424 mn (margin of 6.1%).  With intense competition and demand slowdown leading to pricing pressure on the one hand and commodity prices increase, particularly steel and aluminum, resulting in cost pressure we do not expect Navistar’s margins to expand substantially in the near-to-medium term.