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I had decided to put a pictorial together of the various drill downs and forensic analyses released to the blog. I started building off of  shaunsnoll's spreadsheet, which was a modificationb of one of my earlier works. This new compilation will not include all of the companies mentioned in his sheet, but will include all companies that I either took the time to perform a full analysis on or companies that I have taken a decidedly bearish stance on via drill down. This will exclude a lot of companies that I may have warned readers to be wary of, but never published a formal analysis.

Now, the newer visitors to the site can see what I am about. Each graphic has a set of links to my opinion and the date the opinion was orignally issued as well as a comparison to the broad market index (S&P 500) to see if any true alpha could have been generated on the short side. To date, we have covered several industries and sectors, including (in chronological order): residential real estate (homebuilders), mortgage banking (Countrywide and WaMu), monoline insurance (Ambac and MBIA), commercial real estate (GGP and REITS), investment banking (damn near all of the big boys), commercial banking (the Doo Doo 32 regional bank list), and the latest in the line up is manufacturing and industrial (Navistar). For anyone who wants to get a glimpse at what I feel are my best ideas, well,,, I like all of the ones that made me money. Thus far (knock on wood) practically all of them have done so thus far, with a few notable home runs (ex. MBIA, Ambac, Bear Stearns, GGP, LEH, etc.)

The next few posts will be a quick tutorial on risk adjusted returns, to show my readers that there is a difference between raw returns and real risk adjusted returns (risk is the price for reward, and many of us overpay), and then I will get into the meat of the next phase of my investment thesis with a couple more forensics and a Doo Doo list, or three reaching all the way to the UK, Asia and the Middle East.

 

Snapshot of Opinion and Analysis Released to the Blog

  1. 9/1/2007 - Thoughts on the US Publicly Traded Homebuilders

  2.  Lennar Fully Consolidated Analysis

  3. Lennar Update 02-07-08 

  1. Lennar Insolvent: Enron redux???

 

 

 
 Credibil ity is the Key to Success for a CEO � Hovnanian has Lost that Key: A letter to Mr. Hovnanian
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Ara Hovnanian sponsors the "Deal of the Century" to clear overvalued inventory. Okay, strategic move that makes sense, I give him that. Then his company issues a press release with enough B
Tuesday, 18 September 2007
Hovnanian Announces Successful Preliminary
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Monday, 17 September 2007
Credibiliy is still the key, Mr. Hovnanian
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Tuesday, 06 November 2007
Again, I say, Credibility is the key, Mr. Hovnanian
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...ly though, is taking note of the significant mishaps of this latest in the generational success story. Ara Hovnanian has fallen on some relatively rough times, like practically everyone in the resi...
Wednesday, 26 December 2007
Bubble, Banks and Builders - Pt III: Do or Die BedStuy
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Reprinted from 10/7/07 - There is this section of Brooklyn known as "Do or Die, Bed Stuy," named for the rough and tumble character that was needed to survive it was known for back in the da
Monday, 24 December 2007
 This was the first warning on Bear Stearns and the monolines, in early September. I can no longer pull a chart on BSC since is no longer in existence, but we can safely assume about a 95% drop in share price for BSC (and I even caught a few pennies on the way up as well). From January 27th, 2007...

Is this the Breaking of the Bear?


Correction, and further thoughts on the topic Posted on  

Bear Fight - A most bearish view on Bear Stearns in a bear market /

...at I did insinuate, or at least tried to, was that if real assets revert to mean valuations as I interpret them Bear Stearns will not be a prudent investment. As for institutions interested in portion...
Sunday, 13 January 2008
 
I know who's holding the $119 billion dollar bag! / Comments by Reggie Middleton
(I know who's holding the $119 billion dollar bag! / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
...ons, and recoveries (or lack thereof) unfold, those guesses become more accurate. The first pdf download is for bear stearns. These exposures are for MBIA and Ambac combined. As for recoveries, keep. 
A Super Scary Halloween Tal e of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Tuesday, 13 November 2007
   Ambac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billi
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Thursday, 29 November 2007

67. Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance!
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
  Why a monster, you ask?
Thursday, 29 November 2007

...rtion of their insured portfolio which allowed me to review each structure. I am short Ambac and MBIA (for whom I have also released research), so be aware of my position as I present this opin...
Thursday, 29 November 2007

69. Follow up to the Ambac Analysis
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I have been receiving a lot of feedback on the Ambac article and the MBIA one as well. Many want more in terms of clarification, assumptions, additional calculations, data, etc. I just want to rem
Tuesday, 04 December 2007
 
More tidbits on the monolines
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Taken from the 11/28 Pershing Square presentation: Goldman Sachs Estimate Of Bond Insurer Losses In response to requests from investors, Ambac recently identified some of the specifi
Thursday, 06 December 2007

...he Ambac Analysis Bill Ackman of Pershing Square - How to save the Monolines From Bloomberg news: MBIA Inc. fell the most in more than 20 years in New York trading after Moody's Investors S...
Thursday, 06 December 2007

73. What does Brittany Spears, Snow White and MBIA have in Common?
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...part one of a two part response to comments and questions on the recent events concerning the Ambac and MBIA. The second part will be a forensic marking to market of Ambac's portfolio based upon t...
Tuesday, 11 December 2007

...;s has spoken... From WSJ.com: "Moody's gave a tentative pass to the biggest bond insurer, MBIA Inc., by affirming its rating late Friday but changing the outlook to "negative,"...
Saturday, 15 December 2007

75. What does MBIA, Ambac, and Brittany Spears have in common?
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...rt one of a two part response to comments and questions on the recent events concerning the Ambac and MBIA. The second part will be a forensic marking to market of Ambac's portfolio based upon ...
Sunday, 16 December 2007

76. My Analyst's Comments on MBIA/Ambac/Moody's Post
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I went through your blog and the new post on Moody's rating affirmation and Ambac's reinsurance was fairly comprehensive. I especially liked the part where you talked about blood transfusion b
Tuesday, 18 December 2007

I just warned about this early this morning. CIBC Provides Update to Previous Disclosure on U.S. Subprime Real Estate CDO / RMBS including Likely Large Write-down in First Quarter 2008 Financial Resu
Thursday, 20 December 2007

78. MBIA gave investors who don't follow this blog a nasty surprise last night!
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
From Briefing.com and streetinsider.com: "MBIA (MBI) gave investors a jolt this morning when it disclosed that its total exposure to Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDOs, totals $30.6 bill
Thursday, 20 December 2007

79. A personal email on the monolines
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This is an email exchange between a long time friend who is now a big willy in the derivatives field (I hope that puts a smile on your face, Mr.Willy) and me, discussing the monolines. We haven't
Thursday, 27 December 2007

...ffett is starting a bond insurer to take U.S. local-government business away from companies including MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the Wall Street Journal reported. Berkshire Hathaway...
Friday, 28 December 2007

81. A personal email on the monolines, pt. deux
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This is a second set of email between me and my friend, the big willy of corporate finance. The first set is here. Here we really get into it as the classical corporate guy versus blue collar workin
Saturday, 29 December 2007

82. Download a "Window" into Ambac's Problems
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Two simple, but unflappable tenets that I follow when investing are: 1.)  Economic profit must be evident in order for the investment to be worthwhile. Economic profit exists when the re
Saturday, 05 January 2008

83. Bear Fight - A most bearish view on Bear Stearns in a bear market
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This is an introduction and precursor to the work being done over at Reggie's laboratory concerning Bear Stearns, who has seen its share price halved since the credit market melee kicked off. A
Thursday, 10 January 2008

84. MBIA in the news recently... I am not going to say I told you so.
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
... this... From Reuters: Investors may snap up a planned $1 billion debt sale by a unit of MBIA Inc, after the beleaguered bond insurer was forced to ramp up the deal's yield to about...
Saturday, 12 January 2008

85. We all should have known these were coming...
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann LLP Announces Filing of Class Action Suit Against MBIA, Inc. and Certain of Its Senior Officers and Directors: The Complaint alleges that during the Class Perio
Sunday, 13 January 2008

I'll make this one quick and clean. From the blog post dated Thursday, 29 November 2007 - Ambac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billion in Equity
Tuesday, 15 January 2008

This is from MBIA's recently published 8k. If you have not done so already, it is strongly recommended that you read the November blog post: Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I &a
Thursday, 17 January 2008

...,"WSODQ_COMPONENT_ABK_ID0ENF15839609","WSODQ","true","ID0ENF15839609","off","false"); down 14 percent, MBIA cnbc_quoteComponent_init_getData("MBI","WSODQ_COMPONENT_MBI_ID0ELCAC15839609","WSODQ","tru...
Thursday, 17 January 2008

89. As was warned in my previous monoline posts...
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Back in October/November, I wrote a comical critique of MBIA and the big three ratings agencies. In it, I noted how absurd the relationship between MBIA and its reinsurer was, considering it was f
Thursday, 17 January 2008

90. Fitch finally found my blog and cut Ambac's rating, So what's next...
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
... ratings for a possible reduction. Moody's said this week that it may also cut the ratings of MBIA Inc., the largest bond insurer. This all a big fat joke. They cut ratings after a 80% drop ...
Saturday, 19 January 2008

91. Ice Skating Uphill!
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...they were last weekend, at least in regards to exposure from Ambac as a counterparty.) MBIA and several others are threatened the same as above The smaller reinsurers...
Monday, 21 January 2008

92. Monoline and Mortgage Insurer Update, and My Opinions
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
... Channel Re is a financial guaranty reinsurance company dedicated to providing reinsurance capacity to MBIA Insurance Corporation (MBIA), the New York based financial guaranty insurance company. Chan...
Wednesday, 23 January 2008
 

 Countrywide vs WaMu 9/8/2007

For those who doubt that I know what I am doing, I strongly suggest you read this article. Here is a quip about the warehouse credit lines that I have had personal experience with from a year ago: "From my experience, there is evidence of this from Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and potentially IndyMac Bank as well. I am fairly sure that there are surprises to be had from all three of these banks as well in the upcoming quarters, big surprises." Don't say I never told'ya so!!!

 

 

What does Reggie Middleton and Ryland's Upper Management have in Common?

10/16/2007

 

 Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 1

Wednesday, 19 December 2007 | Reggie Middleton

A thorough forensic analysis of Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman Brothers has uncovered...  Last week, Morgan Stanley called Citibank the “short play of...

The Riskiest Bank on the Street
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

Key highlights of my research on the "Riskiest Investment Bank on the Street": The Riskiest Bank on Wall Street – Morgan Stanley has US$74 billion of Level 3 assets, over 200% of its eq
Monday, 11 February 2008
A closer look at the exposure of the other brokers
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...- Who has the most of their assets tied up in illiquid Level 3 as a proportion to tangible equity? You guessed it, The Riskiest Bank on the Street. Now, they do have a decent amount of liquidity the ...
Sunday, 16 March 2008

19. On the insolvencies of non-bank financial institutions
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...Bullsh1+ part 1 Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 2 Money Panic Bear Fight The Breaking of the Bear The Riskiest Bank on the Street Here comes the CRE Bust (Quip on Lehman Brothers)...
Tuesday, 18 March 2008

20. Quick Morgan Stanley update from my lab
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
  This is a refresher to the The Riskiest Bank on the Street piece that I posted a few months ago on Morgan Stanley. Let me get straight to the salient points. High exposure to lev
Thursday, 20 March 2008

21. Early morning scan of events
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
For those that haven't noticed, I've begun sharing my early morning news and data routine with the blog. Here goes Monday moring EST. Is the Fed running out of ammo? Reserve
Monday, 31 March 2008

22. Reggie Middleton on the Street's Riskiest Bank - Update
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This is the update to my forensic deep dive analysis of Morgan Stanley. It is still, in my opinion, the "riskiest bank on the street". A few things to make note of as you browse through my opinion a
Sunday, 06 April 2008

23. Banks, Brokers & Bullsh1t 3.0: Shenanigans at Morgan and Lehman
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I've been promising to give an illustration of the shenanigans being played by the commercial and investment bank's for some time now, but I've been quite busy working on my entrepeneurial pursuits
Wednesday, 16 April 2008

24. I warned you about the risk of those I Banks
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...ive counterparty and credit risk to imperfect hedges to dead and depreciating assets held off balance sheet: The Riskiest Bank on the Street Is this the Breaking of the Bear? Banks, Broke...
Wednesday, 21 May 2008
 

 

My public postings started with The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way! I have been posting away on CRE ever since. I consider GGP to be (one of the) poster child(ren) of CRE excesses during the credit boom. A summary of some of the anlaysis can be found here: GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house

 Note to GGP management: don't take this personally, but...
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

...te that was attributed to me sounds a bit callous, and that was not my intention. I truly believe that GGP has some serious issues, but I did not intent to make light of them or belittle them. Just wa...
Friday, 22 August 2008

97. Reggie prepares to throw a bomb into the investment banking crowd
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Frank Quattrone, tech company investment banking extraordinaire, shares his views on Wall Street research - and I feel compelled to comment... See NYT article for the full spread (forgvie me NYT, for
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

98. GGP article in Vegas
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
General Growth faces financial shortfall Mall company delays developments as mounting debt comes due By BENJAMIN SPILLMAN REVIEW-JOURNAL They quoted some handsome fella here.
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

99. And even more on GGP...
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
This appears to be harp on GGP insider sales day. First a comment frrom a BoomBustBlogger, then my own observations: From a blog reader - VP sells 50k shares, then CEO buys 10k shares VP
Tuesday, 12 August 2008

100. Even more margin calls at GGP?
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Jean Schlemmer, the Chief of Corporate Development at GGP, has just dumped 50,000 shares @ $27.29 (totalling just under $1.4 million), a full 25% of his/her total holdings in the company. My assumpti
Monday, 11 August 2008

101. GGP Margin Calls: this is just the beginning!
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I'm sure most of you who follow GGP have heard about this by now, but I am here to give you a different perspective. First, let's look at what just happend... From the WSJ: A steep decli
Sunday, 10 August 2008

This is a continuation of GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house, basically an update to include the latest earnings information. And yes, this is st
Wednesday, 06 August 2008

GGP Shenanigans?
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
According to Reuters, GGP said on Wednesday that funds from operations rose 8.4 percent, in part from the acquisition of a former partnership. Second-quarter funds from operations, or FFO, were
Wednesday, 30 July 2008


105. Citi and Wachovia downgrade GGP, after a 50% drop in price
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Citi and Wachovia downgrade GGP after it gets cut in half. Great job fellas! Unfortunately, I couldn't afford to be a client of yours. I just don't have the money to spare. For those new to the site
Thursday, 31 July 2008
 A reader turned me on to Lehman specific writendowns early on. Check it out: Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? This adds on top of the mutliple warnings I issued on Lehman in the posts above, all last year may I add. I never performed a full analysis of LEH (and regret it) but I was aware and warned of their situation since 9/07. Rerfence the Countrywide vs Wamu posts. 
  Assured Guaranty is, in my opinion, really a play on your confidence in Rating Agencies
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
... you some of the key observations we had in the case of Assured Guaranty. Currently, AGO has a market cap of $1.8 billion and book value of $1.6 billion. The company’s investm...
Friday, 08 February 2008
Reinsurer recap
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
What do the RMBS reinsurers look like? Here is snapshot of the statistics to look at before AGO's earnings are announced.        
Monday, 11 February 2008
A quick over view of what I see thus far in Assured Guaranty
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
AGO, as well as the other monolines, are quite time consuming to review an analyze. This makes it quite "expensive" for me, since analytical time is money, not to mention oppurtunity costs. That bei
Saturday, 01 March 2008
Banks, Brokers and Bullsh1t, part 2.5?
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
It looks like my bearish position on AGO needs to be doubled up. From the WSJ.com: Ambac Financial Group Inc. is in discussions to effectively split itself up in a move aimed at ensurin
Sunday, 17 February 2008
AGO update
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
A quick overview from the finished AGO valuation model. I will offer more details over the next day or two and post a full downloadable report in the investor user groups.  I've
Wednesday, 12 March 2008
 
 
 
 
   As I see it, 32 commercial banks and thrifts may see the feces hit the fan blades
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...dy? Can you handle the pressure? Okay, here we go!   Wells Fargo - Popular Inc - SunTrust - KeyCorp - Synovus Financial Corp - Marshall & Ilsley - Associated Banc - First Charter - ...
Thursday, 22 May 2008

7. The Deep Doo-Doo 32: Key Corp
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Thursday, 29 May 2008
  The Next Shoe to Drop: Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Counterparty Risk - Beware what lies beneath!
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
... 679% 326% 6 WELLS FARGO BANK NA  467,861 2,76...
Thursday, 08 May 2008

8. Doo doo in the Wall Street Journal
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...ifts may see the feces hit the fan blades Doo-Doo bank drill down, part 1 - Wells Fargo Doo-Doo Bank 32 drill down: Part 2 - Popular ...
Tuesday, 22 July 2008

9. The next step in my investment thesis
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
BoomBustBlogger Goatmug has literally read my mind in a very recent comment, thus I have taken the liberty to post his comment as an official blog post. This is what I have had my team working on
Monday, 28 July 2008

...d the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house) to major banks such as Wells Fargo (see Wells Fargo Q2 2008 Highlights). These financial shenanigans appear to be in...
Thursday, 31 July 2008

12. Bank Shenanigans???
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
From a reader in Florida: I have some very interesting news about how Bank of America:   One of my buddies is struggling to keep paying one of his rental properties. He has a 2nd
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

13. Have I cast the seeds of doubt for Wells Fargo?
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I targeted Wells Fargo in May, as part of my Doo Doo 32 bank series - see The Drill Down, the Forensic Analysis and the more general "Anatomy of a Sick Bank"! If I am not mistaken, I made
Thursday, 14 August 2008

Goldman Sachs Snapshot: Risk vs. Reward vs. Reputations on the Street

Reggie Middleton on Risk, Reward and Reputations on the Street: the Goldman Sachs Forensic Analysis

 

 PNC: The first of my regional bank shorts to be posted to the blog ...

 Doo Doo Bank 32 Full Forensic Analysis: Sun Trust Bank, it ain't pretty!
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Friday, 27 June 2008

 

GE and the Uber Bank Forensic Analysis
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

This is the follow up to the preview of our analysis of GE. A PDF version is here:  GE_ResearchReport_04July2008 (163.44 kB 2008-07-09 13:50:44). These are drafts and haven't received a fi
Wednesday, 09 July 2008

10. GE: The Uber Bank???
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
I'm taking a closer look at GE, the industrial cum uber bank bellweather of the Fortune 500. See the following draft overview, to be followed up by a full forensic analysis. I apologiz, for I've h
Monday, 16 June 2008

 

 
1. Reggie Middleton on Consumer Finance Shorts
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Friday, 11 July 2008

2. There is no recession, the economy is in fine shape, and business is strong!!!
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
Friday, 26 October 2007

...e next two phases of my investment thesis are on tap.   SUMMARY OF MY OPINIONS ON AMERICAN EXPRESS The deteriorating consumer credit environment in the US has seen la...
Thursday, 31 July 2008

4. The sell side analytical company did it again
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
... not. I am just a realist, apparently unlike the 16 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters (see below): " American Express said second-quarter net income came in at $653 million, or 56 cents a share...
Monday, 21 July 2008
 The first forensic analysis of the next step in my investment thesis - Navistar
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...company that I have decided to release t o the public domain as part 3 of the investment thesis. It is Navistar and it currently sports NEGATIVE SHAREHOLDER EQUITY in a very negative operating environ...
Thursday, 21 August 2008
 

Since I don't get paid to do this it can be a bit laborious at times, but the uplifiting emails that I get (most of them, anyway) make it all worth the while. Some of you guys and gals have some pretty positive things to say. I just want to say thank you for the support. Here is a smattering of comments that I gathered while cleaning out my inbox:

 


regg, i have been a member since january 2008, i just want to thank you for all that u do, may the LORD continue to bless you and your family

 


 

Hi Reggie,

 

We have been working towards securing our financial future for 25 years.  With no pensions we must plan carefully and do lots of homework.  Over those years NOTHING in the financial press can compare to what we have found on your blog-nothing!  The honesty, in-depth research along with a touch of good humor has  been an eye opener after all these years and many thousands of hours spent pouring over what we now recognize was often very marginal work.  We now see the Street has often not been straight with us.  Many, many thanks Reggie, for what you have done here for those of outside the loop now looking in much more clearly....

 

Best regards,

 


 

What can I say, other than "Wow!". Wait--I know what else I can say: "Thank you!".

 

Your blogsite has completely blown me away. Every time I read a page of your blog, I am learning and growing as an investor. I have always leaned on technicals and charting, because frankly I would just get overwhelmed and frustrated when trying to analyze a financial services company. Your analysis breaks everything down so cleanly, and your presentation style is top notch--informative and even witty. As I follow your examples, I am finding it a tad easier when I want to look at the fundamentals on my own.

 

So thank you, Reggie. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and expertise. It is GREATLY appreciated!

 

Kind regards,

 

 

 


 

 

Just wanted to thank you for putting together the event at Buddakhan. Had a wonderful and most importantly enlightening time with you.

 

I know you have your motives for putting together the blog and what not...but I have to say what you are doing in truely appricated....looking foward to hopefully listening in again

 


 

I have been following you since  Oct 07.  I am sure I speak for the great, great majority of your readers (at least up to the 95th percentile)in saying that your high standards in research, your personal honesty, and your abundant and trenchant intelligence, are very much appreciated.

 

You certainly must realize that you have a following.  I imagine that most of the time it is satisfying to have a forum for your views that is appreciated and validated. I hope that only occassional it is not!

 

Your following is different than that from a number of blogs I read.  How?  By the following:  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (several very popular financial and economic blogs) for example, get a great # of "comments" from people who like to make "air", "hear,see themslves blog", etc.  They are comfortable with responding, en masse, to the posts.  Why is that? Not to discredit xxxx or xxxxx or xxxxx, etal, but their blogs lack of market specificity (specific companies, issues, trends, problems, etc) lends itself to an ease of general reader response that is along the lines of the obvious:  "You know xxxx, I am in total agreement",or "when will these idiots in DC learn"?,or "The man on the street knows more than Bernanke", etc. These are usually pablum responses that require little more than a few keystrokes.

 

 

How are you different?  Because of the erudition of your posts, any comments from your readers are typically a question about how does Reggie think on another  topic, often kudos on your post, or, only occasionally, a well reasoned, or insightful additive comment.  Why is the latter most rare?  I think simply the quality of what you offer is so high, that your standard reader  (myself certainly included, though I also believe your readership is quite "above average!))will not venture an inane, immaterial or dumb reply.  This is a compliment of the highest order.

 

You have been quiet recently.  A burst of some activity, but a decided lessening of posts.  I know and appreciate, tha you bear no moral responsibility for submitting material to the blog. Like it or not though, you have a following!  There is an expectation to hear from you not only as pertains to your targeted research, but also as in a general view during the more difficult market circumstances.  I know you are very careful, and properly so, to not dispense investment advice.  As you do not dispense that, I am not asking for that, clearly.

 

In the face of todays seeming market irrationality, and the substantial and unnerving,  1-2% up and down days in the broader market indices recently, your readership wonders when we do not hear from you.  Yes, we know that you are substantially a private investor, and as such, are spending much needed time on digesting all the information needed to make timely investment moves.

 

I believe your readership would find it helpful for an occassional macro view update, particularly when you cannot author your company specific posts.  These would be helpful, (I am sure it is not just me Reggie!)  And no, I do not mean a review of the Dow!, or prospects for tech stocks.  I mean a macro view of your investment world.  During  time consuming periods for you, a short simple posts that say:  "I am busy digesting the broad issues"..."I am not posting company specifics because I am busy", "I am prceeding with caution", "I am committed to the intermediate view of a continued declining financial stock environment", etc. 

 

Reggie:  I hope i have communicated clearly.

 

I thank you for the excellence of your (and your staffs) work

 

Best Regards,

 


 

Reggie,

 

I believe you should charge upwards of $5000 yearly.  I price myself out of subscribing but know there are many who could and  would gladly pay this for what amounts to some of the very best research to be found.  Most of what passes for research on the Street amounts to nothing more than a footnote alongside your work.

 

Regards,

 


 

 What a wonderful source for some amazing information and insight. Thanks so much Reggie - all I can say is "wow".


 

Reggie,rnrnI wanted to thank you for your blog; it is a blessing!

rnrnIs there a subscription service that offers more of your research/insight that could be purchased? rnrnThanks again.

 


 

Dear Reggie,

I just have to take the opportunity today to thank you again for your blog and congratulate you regarding your spare time social activities.

As for the negativity from some that touched you and put you in a negative mood.

Let them go, it is hard in the beginnig (once you decide that negativity is nothing for you) to avoid the rush and anger of being unfairly attacked, but if that is your decision it will come and can be felt as some sort of mildness, wish them that they loose their negativity (in your thoughts that's enough) and move on, I experienced this (I am not perfect yet) and you sure can do it, too. Nobody should pull us down!

Best regards,

 

 


 

Hello Reggie,

I understand your reaction to the comment posted by a reader in connection with the boat ride. Please pay no attention to that individual. Whatever his or her motives were, do not let it detract from your desire to continue to share your insightful personal opinions. Disregard the silly remark and please keep up the good work.

 

Regards,

 


 

Hi Reggie

 

It is interesting that your offer of a boat trip could cause so much "noise".   I have been reading your blog for about 8 months as I was having a difficult time finding any views that supported what I believed. What you have provided "free" to your members has been outstanding and a large group of us thank you very much.

 

Hopefully you wont let a few bad apples spoil it for those who enjoy and respect your views as I believe as the site becomes more popular it will happen on a more regular basis.

 

On a side note I would love to hear your views and join you on the boat ride but it is my daughters bday that weekend.  I have a networth of 1.5M and liquid of 1.2M so I think I would just sneak in :-)

 

Thanks again for all your hard work and I like many others would be willing to pay for your research/effort if you ever go to that type of model.

 


 

Hi Reggie,

 

I came across you @ Seeking Alpha ever since your Nov 5, 2007 post there about Ryland & have been an avid

follower of your blog ever since.

 

I noted that when you moved from http://reggiemiddleton.typepad.com/  to http://boombustblog.com/ , you had

mentioned that you were considering higher end subscription services as well.

 

I have been following the latter blog site & was wondering that by now you might have got such a service up & running. 

Have you ?

 

If so, could you let me know the rates, procedure  etc..... I would love to sign up, if its available.

 

Keep up the great work.

 

Looking forward to your reply.

 


 

Reggie:

 

Read an article on Seeking Alpha about Wells Fargo (Doo-doo).  I thought it was outstanding so decided to check out your site.

 

I'm impressed by your ability to do all this yourself--analysis for one, but the website too!

 

Great job,

 


 

 

Dear Reggie:

 

This has to be an exciting time for you.  I am a physician, still in practice, and a devotee of your blog.  If you have not had a thorough physical in the last year or so, please take the time to get one.  Stuff creeps up, and nothing is as precious as your health.  Just because you are good at running on empty doesn't mean it is good for you.  I have been an ER doc for 35 years, and I know whereof I speak.

 

Take care of you.

 


 

I am a CFA and do analysis work myself.  I find your work to be the best I have ever read.  Spot on, no holding back.  One of the first things that needs to be done by the Regulators is fix the sell side analyst's conflict of interest.  Their reports are absolute jokes.

 

If you are ever in our beautiful city of Asheville, NC, I would love to take you out to dinner.

 


 

Reggie,

 

Just wanted to say thanks for your hard work!  It is invaluable to have the information that you compile.  Your research is right on the money.

 

If there was some way to pay a subscription for your research I would.  I don't know the laws as far as providing advice, but you *should* be compensated for your work.

 

 


 

Your welcome,your advice has been laser focused ,and your knowledge 2nd to none.Thanks T

 


 

 

Reggie,

  I find in the last year or so that I have narrowed my reading down to several financial writers to filter out a lot of the noise.I take Jim Willie's newsletter, Bob Chapman's, Ty Andros free newsletter, and visit Jim Sinclair's website  almost daily. I have found that you do your homework very well, You are right about things time after time, and what you publish is now a must read for me. Oh, I made a couple of bucks shorting Bear Stearns. Thanks!!

 

 


 

 

THANK YOU FOR THINKING OF ME AND READ EVERYTHING HE WRITES.  I THINK REGGIE IS ONE OF THE BEST.  HIS BSC, MBI, AMB, LEN AND OTHER CALLS HAVE BEEN SPECTACULAR.  OF COURSE, I HAVE MADE A FEW DOLLARS ON HIS ANALYSIS.

 


 

Not so, Reggie. I logged on a few times, but shortly after registering I discovered I could access most everything I needed without logging in. Be assured that I visit your site multiple times daily. I am greatly disappointed when there is nothing new; on the other hand, when there is something new, I know I will have to spend some time carefully reading it.

Yours and Mike Shedlock's sites are my two favorites.

 

Keep the analyses coming!

 


 

Great blog! I've gone back and read every single post from 2007 through today, you're quite prescient!

 


 

Hi Reggie,

 

I just wanted to thank you for such an incredible blog. I feel bad to be a freeloader right now, but unfortunately I'm just beginning in the markets and don't know enough to contribute anything about anything. Hopefully that will change soon, and if it does, it's mainly you that I'll have to thank, since I'm trying to use your analyses of various companies as a template to eventually be able to analyse them myself.

 

Anyway, thanks again--your blog is absolutely incredible, and it's the only thing I make sure to check every day.

 


 

Great stuff and I am making a killing on your recommendations and research! Unfortunately my fat wife and 9 kids prevent me from sharing my newfound wealth but thanks anyway!!

 


 

I stumbled upon your blog a few months ago and found it to be an excellent source of information that one would be difficult to aggregate on their own, much less offer the in depth analysis.

 

I just wanted to let you know that being a commercial appraiser and currently working on an appraisal for Regions, I've found that, at least in this case and from my own percepective, the commercial loan officers seem as eager to "take borrowers at their word" as the residential loan officers in the past. After all they are not lending their own money. I look forward to your continuing analysis of the doodoo 32.

 

i appreciate your passion for this blog

 


 

I just finished reading over your analysis of Wells Fargo, which I found quite interesting. It so happens that I worked at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage in xxxxx in 200x, and again for the same group in xxxxxxx in 200x and 200x. My work was as a technical person in support of their data warehouses, which fed their risk management and bond trading system. When I asked why the xxxxxxx organization was not held to the same technical standards as the rest of the company, I was told that the mortgage operation accounted for roughly 55% of Wells Fargo's annual profits, and that because of that nobody in senior management was willing to confront them on such issues. I have no way of knowing if the profit figure I was told is accurate, but even if it is 70% true, the implications are interesting.

 

For my own part, I have taken a position in the Proshares inverse financials fund rather than try to short individual bank stocks, but I certainly wish you luck on your investments -- bottom line is that the fuckers have it coming.

 


 

just wanted to let you know i finished the CFA exam level 2 and was wondering if you could still use a smart analyst willing to work for free in exchange for some learning?

 


 

Man, your timing on 32 worst banks was amazing!  So funny, could have picked almost any one of them to short when you posted that article

 


 

Been reading up on your blog & seen the deepth of your insight.  Helps to keep small ships from sinking/families when so many big ships/large financial are going down/under.  We little guys in the slave quarters thank you for exposing some massive leaks so we don't drown down below.  Alan

 




As a 66 year old engineer/investor, I wanted to express my deep appreciation for making your analysis available to people like me. I use options exclusively and have done very well using info from your research and blogs. Please keep it up.

 

 


 

 

I came across your blog through the Mortgage Implode-o-meter website, which I have been cruising for the past couple of months.  So I'm a late-comer to these credit crisis websites.  Mostly, with low expectations such as making sure my family's deposits and brokerage accounts aren't tied to an FDIC insured deposit limit basket case institution in the making.  You've obviously had a lot of success over the years, but I just wanted to tip my hat to you over your BSC succcess a couple of months ago. The obvious detail of your team's research made that a well-deserved win. 

 


 

 

Hey, I am a fellow Seeking Alpha contributor and have found your work to be quite provocative.  You are one smart dude!

 

The reason I am contacting you is to ask you a few questions:  What are your thoughts on the duration of the strains on the financial system and how is it ultimately is resolved?  What do you think is the least anticipated negative surprise that will occur over the next few months?

 

Thanks for your thoughts, and keep up your intensive efforts.

 

 


 

 

Hi Reggie,  I just ran across your blog and must say that I find it simply amazing.  How the heck do you find the time to do such detailed analysis!  Your site is now at the top of my favorites list.  I've been on it all day.  Thanks for making it public!

 


 

I recently found your website, and I am already a huge fan.  I also invest exclusively for myself as a living, and it is nice to see another smart investor who has recognized the "smoke and mirrors" accounting practices that is occurring in our financial markets.  Like you, I am short many of the investment banks, as well as many of the REITs (primarily the ones specializing in commercial real estate).  I have actually been short these sectors for quite some time now (18 months+), and I still have a few scars left over from being much too early!  I, like you, believe that there is huge money to be made in shorting the coming collapse in commercial real estate.

 

In case you haven't seen them, there are other excellent websites published by some like-minded individuals.  Check out these two for a start:

 

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/index.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

The market ticker site also runs a very active message forum that is amazingly filled with some very smart investing minds (a far cry from the typical Yahoo message boards!).  You should check it out sometime. 

 

Lastly, have you ever run the numbers on shorting Moody's?  It was a very successful short of mine for the second half of last year, and I rescaled back in after the recent pop on some mindless pump news.  I feel that their huge profit margins made from rating structured finance is largely over, and going forward, they will probably have to face numerous lawsuits.  In a worst case scenario for them, they could wind up with a ruined name, much like Arthur Anderson, and their executives might just be more worried about staying out of jail as opposed to preserving share prices.  The recent "computer bug" excuse by them is probably step one in this legal defense process.

 

Anyway, I have gone on too long.  Thanks again for sharing your hard work and effort on this site.