Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:82127 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:77755 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:77323 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:82072 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:78663 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:80955 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:47836 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:79666 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:79186 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:79736 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:84714 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:81662 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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I posted this on another blog, and might as well put it on my own blog. It's in regards to Amex and their expected (by me) and disappoining (to those who don't follow this blog) numbers.

 I think Amex's problems run quite a bit deeper than most realize. They have a substantial amount of credit risk. When I posted my initial analysis of them a couple of weeks ago, naming them as one of my best shorts (everyone thought they were untouchable, much like Goldman Sachs who is also significantly overvalued, more on that later) many people hemmed and hawed. A close look at their numbers show that they are a ticking time bomb.

I know many call me an uber bear, but I am not. I am just a realist, apparently unlike the 16 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters (see below):

" American Express said second-quarter net income came in at $653 million, or 56 cents a share, vs. $1.06 billion, or 88 cents a share, the same period a year earlier.
The latest results include $600 million that the company added to reserves to cover bad loans in the U.S., the company said. There was also one other $136 million charge and a tax benefit of $101 million.
American Express was expected to make 83 cents a share, according to the average estimate of 16 analysts in a Thomson Reuters survey."

Even the company itself appeared to fail to face reality, at least as it appears from their official stance:

"The second quarter results included a $600 million ($374 million after-tax) addition to U.S. lending credit reserves that reflects a deterioration of credit indicators beyond our prior expectation, and a $136 million ($85 million after-tax) charge to the fair market value of the Company’s retained interest in securitized Cardmember loans."

For those that are interested, I announced Amex's problems a few weeks ago here: http://boombustblog.com/content/view/457/34/

Now, why is it that I was able to see this with a simple scan and a skeleton staff (a very smart and capable staff, but skeleton nonetheless) but all of those heavily  funded research desks (okay, maybe not anymore, but still funded better than my operation) and the company itself (who failed to pare back in time) could not see it coming?

That long run-on is actually the basis for my investment thesis. The financial companies are quite overvalued (as an entire sector) and still have much, much farther to fall. They will be the catalysts for a global compression in the industrial, retail and manufacturing sectors - and China and Europe will probably beat the US to the bottom of the heap.

Again, I am not a bear, I am a realist with a spreadsheet!

I will post a detailed analysis an description on the overvaluation of Goldman some time tonight and will follow up with the same on Amex and probably HSBC.