Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:82093 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:77729 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:77299 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:82045 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:78637 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:80931 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:47814 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:79639 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:79164 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:79712 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:84686 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:81636 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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As I have mentioned before, I am looking for avenues to syndicate the content of my blog. I know I am biased, but I think this blog delivers top notch, timely and unique content. It being my blog, I am probably not the most objective judge… Many of you came to this blog from Seeking Alpha, where I was a contributor. It appears as if I have done something to piss them off, for they have not ran any articles lately and have not returned my emails. I’m pretty sure the reason is my complaining about the changing of the content of my articles, something that I cannot tolerate. The editors that I dealt with were always very professional and polite though, and I would like to make that clear. Nevertheless, being forced to gather my own eyeballs may have been the best thing that has happened to this blog. Let me tell you why…

The possible offense (I am not quite sure why I am not getting return emails or articles ran) probably came from my linking to a very interesting discussion on Seeking Alpha’s business model, editorial practices (of which I complained in the actual linking), and blogonomics in general. You can read my comment here (you may have to scroll up a bit to see it). The actual discourse that I linked to is here, and stems from a little beef that Barry Ritholz, the popular blogger, analysts and CNBC contributor had with SA over some of the exact same issued that I had. I recommend those interested in blogonomics give it a glance. Keep in mind that Iimage001.png 

(being the stuck up, conceited bastard that I am) truly believe that a steady stream of buy side quality, forensic research is a rarity on the web, hence I often lapse into a state of actually believing this blog’s content has some value. The argument made by SA’s founder about the blogger’s incremental effort in content redistribution is a little murky, but I will get into that at a late time. My content easily costs me into the six digits to produce, thus it is not cheap. Although there are some very good blogs out there, especially in the economics research and opinion space, ex. Ritholz’s is one, as well as Calculated Risk and Mish (see my blog roll), I think I am the only one that performs thorough buy-side forensic analysis from a macro investor’s perspective - at least the only one that does it for free.

 

Seeking Alpha does seem to expose certain popular writers with a significant amount of exposure, and their coup d’etat and primary value driver is the deal that they inked with Yahoo Finance to have their blog’s content carried on Yahoo’s ticker news feeds, which are very heavily used. Now, being the conceited bastard that I am, I wondered, “If they don’t want my stuff, and I think my stuff is worth wanting, why don’t I just move to have my stuff carried directly by the major news feeds and outlets?”. Damn, could you imagine if Yahoo, Reuters or Bloomberg carried analysis as hard hitting, thorough and extensive as “GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house” on their newswires?

 

``There's nothing you can glean from them that's going to make you any money,'' said Jack Ablin, who oversees $62 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``Right now `Wall Street' and `unique research' is an oxymoron. Unless they're able to do some kind of very unique research, I don't see any of them coming up with an edge.'' 

I’m thinking that this could literally transform financial news and reporting, as well as give the traditional rags the much needed shot in the arm they’ve been craving every since the Web started devouring their margins and their business models. Now, how do I get these guys’ attention? Well, I’ve put together a little compilation of popular (but far from complete) articles, posts and analyses from the blog, and have date stamped them along with the company that they are referencing. I am not going to publish performance figures, but you guys (and girls) can figure it out for yourselves. The factor for determining the results of a short sale is about -1.9x the change in price. If any of you know one of the major media publications with a finance interest, use the mail or recommend functions of the blog to forward them a copy of this article. Of course, I would appreciate any feedback or comments that my readers have as well.

 

A snapshot of the BoomBustBlog commentary.

Blog post date

Companies negatively Blogged

Price on Blog Date

As of 6/18/2008

% change

Commentary & Analysis

Popular Articles

As I see it, 32 commercial banks and thrifts may see the feces hit the fan blades

Friday, 23 May 2008 | Reggie Middleton

 I have identified 32 banks that are $@%%. It's really as simple as that. I have been  publishing the research that  I used to build my investment thesis. Thus far we...
+ Full Story

The Riskiest Bank on the Street

Monday, 11 February 2008 | Reggie Middleton

Key highlights of my research on the "Riskiest Investment Bank on the Street": The Riskiest Bank on Wall Street – Morgan Stanley has US$74 billion of Level 3 assets, over 200% of its...
+ Full Story

More good stuff...

·         The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way!

·         Doo-Doo bank drill down, part 1 - Wells Fargo

·         As was warned in this blog, the S&P downgrade of a monoline insurer reverberated losses through c

·         Reggie Middleton on the Street's Riskiest Bank - Update

·         Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 1

·         The first of my regional bank shorts to be posted to the blog...

·         Lennar Insolvent: Enron redux???

·         Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 2

·         I know who's holding the $119 billion dollar bag!

·         Is this the Breaking of the Bear?

·         The worst is behind us, unless massive bank failure is considered a bad thing

·         The Next Shoe to Drop: Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Counterparty Risk - Beware what lies beneath!

·         Reggie Middleton on the Asset Securitization Crisis - Part I

·         Voodoo, Zombies, Lennar�s Off Balance Sheet Accounting and Other Things of Mystery & Myth

·         A Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton

·         Bear Stearns conspiracy theories

·         GGP part 8 - The Final Anaysis: fire sale of prime properties

·         More on the banking backdrop, they have never had so many loans

 

1-Sep-07

len

$28.37

$15.91

(43.92%)

Voodoo, Zombies, Lennar�s Off Balance Sheet Accounting and Other Things of Mystery & Myth

 

hov

$12.60

$6.40

(49.21%)

Credibility is the Key to Success for a CEO – Hovnanian has Lost that Key: A letter to Mr. Hovnanian

 

phm

$16.91

$11.42

(32.47%)

Commentary

 

ctx

$29.08

$15.52

(46.63%)

Thoughts on the US Publicly Traded Homebuilders,  Centex and Beazer show evidence of credit crunch dismantling their business models,  and The Performance of Centex's Mortgage Originations, or CountryWide Redux, pt III

 

dhom

$2.08

$0.55

(73.56%)

Commentary

1-Sep-07

bzh

$11.19

$5.45

(51.30%)

Commentary

 

rdn

$18.11

$2.78

(84.65%)

Commentary

 

mtg

$30.34

$10.14

(66.58%)

Commentary

1-Sep-07

dhi

$15.23

$12.26

(19.50%)

Commentary

 

tol

$21.84

$20.39

(6.64%)

Commentary

 

bsc

$113.84

$9.33

(91.80%)

Is this the Breaking of the Bear?

 

cfc

$19.59

$4.75

(75.75%)

Yeah, Countrywide is pretty bad, but it ain’t the only one at the subprime party… Comparing Countryw

3-Sep-07

mbi

$61.58

$6.00

(90.26%)

A Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton

 

abk

$64.15

$2.10

(96.73%)

Ambac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billion in Equity

8-Sep-07

wm

$34.06

$6.27

(81.59%)

Yeah, Countrywide is pretty bad, but it ain’t the only one at the subprime party… Comparing Countryw  and Washington Mutual get hits hard - you were warned here about this in September!

16-Oct-07

ryl

$23.96

$24.00

0.17%

What does Reggie Middleton and Ryland's Upper Management have in Common?

8-Jan-08

ggp

$45.75

$38.49

(15.87%)

Extensive: GGP and the type of research you won’t get from a brokerage

19-Dec-07

ms

$49.79

$39.40

(20.87%)

Reggie Middleton on the Street's Riskiest Bank - Update

Banks below are part of the very recent Asset Securitization Crisis Series, click here for the latest installment

23-May-08

WFC

$27.68

$25.80

(6.79%)

Doo-Doo bank drill down, part 1 - Wells Fargo

 

BPOP

$11.22

$8.29

(26.11%)

Doo-Doo Bank 32 drill down: Part 2 - Popular

STI

$52.99

$37.49

(29.25%)

Doo-Doo Bank 32 Drill Down - part 3, Sun Trust Bank

 

KEY

$21.87

$11.28

(48.42%)

The Deep Doo-Doo 32: Key Corp

 

SNV

$11.79

$8.85

(24.94%)

 

 

MI

$23.08

$17.50

(24.18%)

 

 

ASBC

$27.96

$22.09

(20.99%)

 

 

FCTR

 

$30.02

 

 

 

HBAN

$8.99

$5.72

(36.37%)

 

 

BBT

$32.73

$25.19

(23.04%)

 

 

JPM

$42.32

$39.12

(7.56%)

 

 

USB

$32.68

$30.42

(6.92%)

 

 

MTB

$87.65

$76.27

(12.98%)

 

 

BAC

$33.28

$28.60

(14.06%)

 

 

COF

$44.47

$42.74

(3.89%)

 

 

NARA

$12.44

$12.32

(0.96%)

 

 

SASR

$26.25

$20.33

(22.55%)

 

15-May-08

PNC

$69.39

$57.93

(16.52%)

The first of my regional bank shorts to be posted to the blog...

 

HNBC

$13.26

$12.83

(3.24%)

 

 

CVBF

$10.19

$9.46

(7.16%)

 

 

GBCI

$19.95

$17.80

(10.78%)

 

 

FHN

$9.08

$8.09

(10.90%)

 

 

NCC

$5.65

$4.76

(15.75%)

 

 

RF

$18.13

$11.94

(34.14%)

 

29-Nov-07

C

$31.52

$20.47

(35.06%)

 

 

WB

$24.40

$17.08

(30.00%)

 

 

ZION

$42.81

$32.68

(23.66%)

 

 

TCBK

$15.34

$14.77

(3.72%)

 

 

FITB

$19.26

$11.09

(42.42%)

 

 

SOV

$8.51

$8.62

1.29%

 

 

GE

$28.97

$28.61

(1.24%)

GE: The Uber Bank???

 

According to this Bloomberg article, the boombustblog.com articles more than tripled the performance of the best performing Wall Street analyst of the past year, and soundly out-performed ALL of the analyst and brokerages house recommendations - most of whom had deeply negative returns and failed to beat the broad markets. To translate the numbers from the analyzed banking sector (or any other % of stock price decrease above) into a short sale result after commissions, multiply by a factor of about -1.9x. I cover much more than banking stocks, which would have given these results a much higher risk adjusted return if one were to keep score and run the calculations, which I am not. Sourced from Bloomberg:

Best Performances

The analysts who made investors the most money were Charles Peabody of New York-based Portales Partners LLC and Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. in Miami, Florida, whose ``sell'' ratings on Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Lehman and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. produced profits of 47 percent and 18 percent, respectively, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup's Colin Devine made 4.8 percent by rating Ameriprise Financial Inc., the only brokerage stock he covers, ``sell'' before moving to ``hold'' in July.

``Ten years ago, the expectation was that analysts would simply avoid the worst excesses,'' Bove said in an interview. ``The idea was just to beat the benchmark. Today, analysts have got to make you money in both up and down markets. You don't have any excuse.'' …

… Bove said other analysts may have made money-losing recommendations because they based their reports on brokerage earnings rather than examining risk in credit markets.

Losing Influence

Analysts lost influence after 10 securities firms paid $1.4 billion in 2003 to settle allegations that they used tainted research to promote investment banking clients. Regulation FD, a Securities and Exchange Commission rule implemented in 2000, prevents companies from disclosing information to analysts that they don't tell the public. Merrill ordered its stock advisers this month to boost ``underperform'' ratings to at least 20 percent of the stocks they follow. Goldman Sachs had ``sells'' on 15 percent of the companies it covered as of April 1. Analyst ``sell'' recommendations across Wall Street are down from 11.1 percent in May 2003, according to Bloomberg data.

``There's nothing you can glean from them that's going to make you any money,'' said Jack Ablin, who oversees $62 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``Right now `Wall Street' and `unique research' is an oxymoron. Unless they're able to do some kind of very unique research, I don't see any of them coming up with an edge.''

Average total returns for investors who followed the recommendations of analysts for stocks in the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index, measured from June 3, 2007, through June 3, 2008. Returns factored for investors who bought on ``buy'' ratings, sold on ``hold'' and sold short on ``sell.'' Zero percent returns reflect analysts rating stocks ``hold'' for the designated period.

 

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