Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:85837 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:80052 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:79912 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:84394 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:80932 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:83172 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:54186 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:82315 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:82157 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:82029 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:88072 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:85935 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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I'm pissed off at myself. I broke one of my own cardinal rules and allowed my personal account to fall below my nominally appointed 110% annualized return benchmark. It is no one's fault but my own and will probably be rectified by month's end, but it does prompt me to proof against it happening again. So, I'm back to the lab. I will be sharing bits and pieces with the blog, so stay tuned. In a nutshell the US banking system is @#$#, those CEOs who say that the worst is behind us... Are you sure about that?

I think we may be revisiting the '30's, albeit with more foresight from the Fed, but more downward pressure from global macro perspective. It will be interesting who wins this tug of war, but in the end I fear moral hazard my reign supreme. 

gdp20-40.jpg

 

Recessions

Name  ↓ Dates  ↓ Duration  ↓ Comments References
Panic of 1797 1797–1800 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&03.&&&&&03 years The effects of the deflation of the Bank of England crossed the Atlantic Ocean to North America and disrupted commercial and real estate markets in the United States colonies and the Caribbean. Britain's economy was greatly affected by developing disflationary repercussions because it was fighting France in the French Revolutionary Wars at the time. [6]
Depression of 1807 1807–1814 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&07.&&&&&07 years The Embargo Act of 1807 was passed by the United States Congress under President Thomas Jefferson. It devastated shipping-related industries. The Federalists fought the embargo and allowed smuggling to take place in New England. [7][8]
Panic of 1819 1819–1824 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&05.&&&&&05 years The first major financial crisis in the United States featured widespread foreclosures, bank failures, unemployment, and a slump in agriculture and manufacturing. It also marked the end of the economic expansion that followed the War of 1812. [9][10]
Panic of 1837 1837–1843 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&06.&&&&&06 years A sharp downturn in the American economy was caused by bank failures and lack of confidence in the paper currency. Speculation markets were greatly affected when American banks stopped payment in specie (gold and silver coinage). [11]
Panic of 1857 1857–1860 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&03.&&&&&03 years Failure of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company burst a European speculative bubble in United States railroads and caused a loss of confidence in American banks. Over 5,000 businesses failed within the first year of the Panic, and unemployment was accompanied by protest meetings in urban areas. [12]
Panic of 1873 1873–1879 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&06.&&&&&06 years Economic problems in Europe prompted the failure of the Jay Cooke & Company, the largest bank in the United States, which bursted the post-Civil War speculative bubble. The Coinage Act of 1873 also contributed by immediately depressing the price of silver, which hurt North American mining interests. [13]
Long Depression 1873–1896 &&&&&&&&&&&&&023.&&&&&023 years The collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange caused a depression that spread throughout the world. It is important to note that during this period, the global industrial production greatly increased. In the United States, for example, industrial output increased fourfold. [14]
Panic of 1893 1893–1896 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&03.&&&&&03 years Failure of the United States Reading Railroad and withdrawal of European investment lead to a stock market and banking collapse. This Panic was also precipitated in part by a run on the gold supply. [15]
Panic of 1907 1907–1908 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&01.&&&&&01 year A run on Knickerbocker Trust Company stock on October 22, 1907 set events in motion that would later lead to the Great Depression in the United States. [16]
Post-World War I recession 1918–1921 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&03.&&&&&03 years Severe hyperinflation in Europe took place over production in North America. It was a brief, but very sharp recession and was caused by the end of wartime production, along with an influx of labor from returning troops. This in turn caused high unemployment. [17]
Great Depression 1929–1939 &&&&&&&&&&&&&010.&&&&&010 years Stock markets crashed worldwide, and a banking collapse took place in the United States. This sparked a global downturn, including a second, more minor recession in the United States, the Recession of 1937. [18]
Recession of 1953 1953–1954 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&01.&&&&&01 year After a post-Korean War inflationary period, more funds were transferred into national security. The Federal Reserve changed fiscal policy to be more restrictive in 1952 due to fears of further inflation. [19][20]
Recession of 1957 1957–1958 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&01.&&&&&01 year Monetary policy was tightened during the two years preceding 1957, followed by an easing of policy at the end of 1957. The budget balance resulted in a change in budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 1957 to a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 1958, and then to 2.6% of GDP in 1959. [21]
1973 oil crisis 1973–1975 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&02.&&&&&02 years A quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC coupled with high government spending due to the Vietnam War lead to stagflation in the United States. [22]
Early 1980s recession 1980–1982 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&02.&&&&&02 years The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices to go up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation lead to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation that was carried over from the previous decade due to the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis. [23][24]
Early 1990s recession 1990–1991 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&01.&&&&&01 year Industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales decreased in early 1991. [25]
Early 2000s recession 2001–2003 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&02.&&&&&02 years The collapse of the dot-com bubble, the September 11th attacks, and accounting scandals contributed to a relatively mild contraction in the North American economy.

 

 

References

  1. ^ Carter, Susan B. (2006-01-30). The Historical Statistics of the United States. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521817919. 
  2. ^ Hall, Robert (2003-10-21). The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure. National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved on 2008-02-29.
  3. ^ Pelaez, Carlos M. (2007-07-10). Global Recession Risk: Dollar Devaluation and the World Economy. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 0230521509. 
  4. ^ Brent Moulton (2003-12-10). Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts 1929 through Second Quarter 2003. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retrieved on 2008-02-29.
  5. ^ (2007) The Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia. Columbia University Press. 
  6. ^ Chew, Richard S. (2005-12). "Certain Victims of an International Contagion: The Panic of 1797 and the Hard Times of the Late 1790s in Baltimore". Journal of the Early Republic. 
  7. ^ Watkins, Thayer. The Depression of 1807-1814 in the U.S.. San Jose State University Department of Economics. Retrieved on 2008-02-29.
  8. ^ Newbold, Ken (2005-03-16). Embargo Act Commentary. James Madison Center. Retrieved on 2008-02-29.
  9. ^ Morris, Richard B. (1987). The Forging of the Union, 1781-1789. Harpercollins Childrens Books. ISBN 0060914246. 
  10. ^ Rothbard, Murray N. (2007-04-10). Panic of 1819 Reactions and Policies. Ludwig von Mises Institute. ISBN 1933550082. 
  11. ^ Morris, Charles (1902). The Great Republic By the Master Historians- Volumes I,II,III,IV. R.S. Belcher. 
  12. ^ Huston, James L. (1987-12-01). The Panic of 1857 and the Coming of the Civil War. Louisiana State University Press. ISBN 0807124923. 
  13. ^ Foner, Eric (1990-01-10). A Short History of Reconstruction. Harper Perennial. ISBN 0060964316. 
  14. ^ Viner, Jacob (1945-05). "Clapham on the Bank of England". Economica 12 (46): 61-68. doi:10.2307/2549897. 
  15. ^ Appleton, D. (1903). "Appletons' Annual Cyclopædia and Register of Important Events of the Year". University of Virginia. 
  16. ^ Bruner, Robert F. (2007-08-31). The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm. Wiley. ISBN 047015263X. 
  17. ^ Goldberg, David J. (1999-01-15). Discontented America: The United States in the 1920s. The Johns Hopkins University Press. ISBN 0801860040. 
  18. ^ Rothbard, Murray N. (2000-06-15). America's Great Depression. Ludwig Von Mises Institute. ISBN 0945466056. 
  19. ^ Dell, S. (1957-06). "The United States Recession of 1953/54: A Comment". The Economic Journal 67 (266): 338-339. doi:10.2307/2227810. 
  20. ^ Holmans, A. E. (1958-02). "The Eisenhower Administration and the Recession, 1953-5". Oxford Economic Papers 10 (1): 34-54. 
  21. ^ Labonte, Marc (2002-01-10). The Current Economic Recession. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved on 2008-03-05.
  22. ^ Merrill, Karen R. (2007-02-22). The Oil Crisis of 1973-1974: A Brief History with Documents. Bedford/St. Martin's. ISBN 0312409222. 
  23. ^ Oil Squeeze. TIME (1979-02-05). Retrieved on 2008-02-29.
  24. ^ Rattner, Steven (1981-01-05). Federal Reserve sees little growth in '81 with continued high rates. New York Times. Retrieved on 2008-02-29.
  25. ^ NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee Determines that Recession Ended in March 1991. NBER. Retrieved on 2008-03-04.
  26. ^ Henderson, Neil (2004-01-22). Economists Say Recession Started in 2000. The Washington Post. Retrieved on 2008-02-29.

 

Source: wikipedia