Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:82051 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:77701 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:77271 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:82017 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:78605 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:80905 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:47784 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:79607 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:79138 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:79683 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:84639 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:81607 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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When I released the various monoline analyses, I assured: my readers that we would start getting a wave of bankrutpcies as a result of the lax underwriting of the leveraged loan markets. I also made it clear as a investment thesis in this blog from day one that what the media consistently harped on as a "subprime slime" problem was no such thing. What we have here is an OPM "other peoples money" problem where the originators of loans no longer had the responsibility of managing the risks of said loans. If it ain't your money, you really don't care how well it performs. Thus, thier was not "contagion" that spread from subprime which should have been contained to the rest of the credit markets. This is not a microbiology event! This was a matter of a separation of risk and reward, which allowed for haphazard, I don't give a damn lending.

This not so subtle point is what drives my investment thesis of insolvency, I was prepared to short all lending institutions and the entities that they lent to, not just the subprime sector. You see, thanks to the separation of risk and reward, we're all subprime now. If history repeats itself (and it usually tends to) we will see a tidal spike in bankruptcies that will further stress the system. If you think the subprime mess caused the banks, brokers and builders a problem - you ain't seen nothin' yet. Below are four bankruptices announced in just one week's span, two announced today...

 

Linens 'n Things, caught by an increasing debt load and shrinking housing market, is expected to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection by Tuesday. A filing would mark one of the largest buyouts to go bust since the credit crisis took hold last summer. In February 2006, Apollo Management acquired Linens for $1.3 billion. The housing crisis made the home-furnishings space ultracompetitive, and the debt on the company's balance sheet gave it diminished flexibility to ride out the downturn. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120788502599307497.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

Frontier Air Files for Bankruptcy Protection, Fourth U.S. Failure in Month

Frontier Airlines said it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection following moves by a credit-card processor to increase a holdback of customer receipts. The airline said it will continue to operate its full flight schedule and pay employees and suppliers throughout its reorganization. The move comes after two other discount carriers, ATA Airlines and Aloha Airgroup, filed for bankruptcy and suspended operations. http://online.wsj.com/home?mod=djemalertNEWS

A quick search of my blog illustrates references to these events:

1. CLO CDO's hold significant risk as well
(Banks, Brokers and Bullsh1t, part 2.5? / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
I believe AGO has about $4.5 billion of this stuff. CDO's based on risky assets are dangerous. Leveraged loans in a tight credit environment are risky assets. Remember what made the RE market go boom,
Tuesday, 19 February 2008

2. I know who's holding the $119 billion dollar bag! / Comments by Reggie Middleton
(I know who's holding the $119 billion dollar bag! / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
...have been missed. Now, we just may reach the trillion dollar mark if you take all of the loses in aggregate. The leveraged loans, junk bonds, consumer finance, the resultant equity devaluations, RMBS...
Tuesday, 26 February 2008

3. reggie -- substance awesome as usual, but forgive me some grammar corrections...
(A few more thoughts on MBIA, S&P and what AAA really means / Comments by Stephen)
...ate" should probably read something like "entities which concentrate very highly..." Lastly, MBIA's insurance of leveraged loans and junk bond CDOs has not surfaced yet, but I'm pretty sure its there...
Tuesday, 26 February 2008

4. I believe it is safe to be even more bearish on the big I banks
(As I was harping on relying on Name Brands... / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
The RMBS and mortgages alone are enough to continue write downs for a while. When adding CMBS, Leveraged loans, junk bonds, CLOs, CDOs, and consumer finance, these guys have quite a ways to go in term
Monday, 03 March 2008

5. One of the main reasons why all of my strategies need to stand on their own, without leverage... / Comments by Reggie Middleton
(One of the main reasons why all of my strategies need to stand on their own, without leverage... / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
... peers. The problem is that their peers have such bad portfolios. Their high concentration risks are in Corporate leveraged loans, junk bunds, CDOs and HELOCs. They are going to take a bath in the HEL...
Saturday, 15 March 2008

6. Thoughts for the day / Comments by Reggie Middleton
(Thoughts for the day / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
...question is will the IBs use the liquidity to stimulate business, or can they? Investors still do not want to buy leveraged loans or MBS or structured products, or ARS. I believe at least two broker...
Tuesday, 18 March 2008

7. I believe the rally may continue, but for I banks it is not deserved / Comments by Reggie Middleton
(I believe the rally may continue, but for I banks it is not deserved / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
...t the industry has a dismal future in the medium term. Fixed income, structured products, mortgage products, M&A, leveraged loans, all look to be slim to non-existent in the short to medium term. Wher...
Wednesday, 19 March 2008

8. Remember where you read about the VIE mess first
(Quick Morgan Stanley update from my lab / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
...1.8 billion writedown caused by the mortgage market slump. Morgan Stanley takes $2.8bn writedown on mortgages and leveraged loans. Merrill sues XL Capital bond insurer to secure $3.1bn CDOs as per con...
Thursday, 20 March 2008

9. This goes to show you how underpriced monoline risk premiums were
(The outlook for European banks: a quick summary of recent news / Comments by Reggie Middleton)
...d losses in $20-140bn range # European banks also reported to be exposed to commercial real estate loans/CMBS and leveraged loans stemming from buy-out boom. These markets are turning now and addition...
Thursday, 20 March 2008

10. Funny CLO business at Lehman / Comments by 2and20
(Funny CLO business at Lehman / Comments by 2and20)
...s like 20% in this example), and some or all of the rest of the tranches rated investment-grade. Especially since leveraged loans typically have a greater call on the collateral of the underlying firm...
Saturday, 05 April 2008

11. Reggie Middleton on the Street's Riskiest Bank - Update
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...n 4Q2007. However, the write down in 1Q2008 was much lower with $1.2 bn mortgage related write-down and $1.1 bn leveraged loan write-down, partly offset by $0.80 bn gains from credit widening under...
Sunday, 06 April 2008

12. Funny CLO business at Lehman
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...act it's blowing up the economy. Banks have $200 billion of buyout debt they can't easily sell after the price of leveraged loans tumbled to 88.8 cents on the dollar from 100 cents on the dollar last ...
Friday, 04 April 2008

13. It's all subprime!
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...sheets substantially as well. It is worth noting that this muni is not a distressed mortgage asset --- nor leveraged loan --- nor CRE --- it is probably pretty typical of a structured finance ...
Thursday, 03 April 2008

14. What's going on here?!
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...e in the market trend… Add in today’s fundamentals (residential/commercial real estate, leveraged loans, monolines, credit crunch, strapped consumer, probably recession, cy...
Wednesday, 02 April 2008

..., Deutsche Bank said it faces first-quarter write-downs of around 2.5 billion euros, or $3.95 billion, related to leveraged loans, loan commitments, real estate and mortgage-backed securities. The com...
Tuesday, 01 April 2008

16. The outlook for European banks: a quick summary of recent news
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...d losses in $20-140bn range European banks also reported to be exposed to commercial real estate loans/CMBS and leveraged loans stemming from buy-out boom. These markets are turning now and addition...
Thursday, 20 March 2008

17. I believe the rally may continue, but for I banks it is not deserved
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...k the derivative written on top of housing will? What about the things that are just starting to get worse: leveraged loans, high yield securities, consumer finance securities written at the ...
Wednesday, 19 March 2008

18. Thoughts for the day
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...ankers, and homebuilders to see where the bankers will be the following quarter. I also believe the leveraged loan, consumer finance and high yield markets will start showing evidence o...
Tuesday, 18 March 2008

19. MBIA LETTER TO OWNERS DATED MARCH 3, 2008.
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...their mortgage risk, but failed to opined on the risks and liabilities coming down the pike in consumer finance, leveraged loans, CMBS, high yield CDOs, and looming increase in municipal bond risk. ...
Thursday, 06 March 2008

20. As I was harping on relying on Name Brands...
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
... Overall, commercial-real-estate write-downs in the first quarter are expected to rival those for CDOs and leveraged loans. Mr. Tanona predicted write-downs of commercial-mortgage-backed securi...
Monday, 03 March 2008

21. February Sees Surge Of High Yield Damsels In Distress
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
As I have stated before, the CLOs, leveraged loan pools and the high yield CDOs insured by the monolines are going to be the media's new whipping boy once they figure it out. It is a much, much larg
Sunday, 02 March 2008

22. A quick over view of what I see thus far in Assured Guaranty
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...smaller utitilies. My guess would have been would have been that leveraged loans and junk bonds would have sunk AGO. These area do indeed have awful ma...
Saturday, 01 March 2008

23. A few more thoughts on MBIA, S&P and what AAA really means
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...om concentrate very highly correlated risks using more than 80x leverage. Observation: MBIA's insurance of leveraged loans and junk bond CDOs has not surfaced yet, but I'm pretty sure its there...
Tuesday, 26 February 2008

24. I know who's holding the $119 billion dollar bag!
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...in detail , there is the consumer finance markets (recession, anyone?), then the big grand daddy of them all, the leveraged loan, junk bond CDO and CDS market - crashing at a financial institution nea...
Monday, 25 February 2008

25. A few thoughts on today's insurer movement
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)
...llars of capital, give or take. Query: Has anyone forgotten about the junk bonds, consumer finance and leveraged loan CDOs that the monolines insure? If you think the banks are at risk of b...
Monday, 25 February 2008