Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:88514 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:82212 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:82104 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:86603 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:83037 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:85156 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:56260 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:84484 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:84197 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:84057 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:90540 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:88116 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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April Fools! Stocks in U.S. Rise, Led by Banks in Best Start to 2nd Quarter in 70 Years Now, lets look at the top ten increases in the S&P over the last 30 years, wherein 30% of them happened IN THE LAST 21 DAYS (including April Fool's day, how appropriate)!. I know I said I don't believe much in technical analysis, primarily because I am not a short term trader, but bear with me since I do look at historical charts.

  1. 1.      Oct. 21/1987      9.10%
  2. 2.      July 24/2002      5.70%
  3. 3.      Aug 17/1982      4.80%
  4. 4.      Mar 18/2008      4.20%
  5. 5.      Oct 15/1998       4.20%
  6. 6.      Sept. 1/1998       3.90%
  7. 7.      Oct. 11/2002      3.90%
  8. 8.      Jan. 17/1991       3.70%
  9. 9.      Mar 11/2008      3.70%
  10. 10.   Apr 1/2008        3.60%
  11. 11.  Mar 13/2003      3.50%

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The 120 day avg. has not been wrong yet quite useful in showing significant trends, including Black Monday, LTCM, the Asian and the Russian Crises, and 9/11 - all easily discernible from graph - and all most likely peanuts compared to what we are going through now…

  • Each of the big moves have precipitated a big move in the market trend…
  • Add in today’s fundamentals (residential/commercial real estate, leveraged loans, monolines, credit crunch, strapped consumer, probably recession, cyclical downturn in banking and real assets, multiple bubbles popping) and where you see the moving average going combined with the aggressive bull run you see we just came off of, and it looks like we should be prepared for a drop…
  • Consider 30% of the 30 years of the most volatile pops occurred THIS MONTH!
  • Look at the peak of the dot.com bubble bursting and look at us today. See anything familiar? Either we are going to rocket upward to continue this dizzying bull market with some of the poorest profits and the scariest macro environment in many decades, or we are in for one hell of a fall. Do ya' feel lucky??? Those devastating bear market rallies may be here with a vengeance, destined to shake profitable positions away from weak handed short sellers and bears who do not perform and stand behind their fundamental due diligence.

 

Here is a closeup of 30% worth of the 3 decades top 10 upside pops - extreme volality and noise. Now, imagine this leveraged 2x, 10x, 30x, or more. Hold on to your lunch!

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... and from Bloomberg, hedge funds as a group seem to be facing historically tough times due to the unprecdented volatility. There shorts are getting bashed in the bull rallies. My take on this is - that's what you get for being a short term player. Expand your investment horzons (which is probably very difficult with clients who are demanding monthly and quarterly performance), and use insurance! Isn't that why they call them HEDGE funds? I, personally, would rather wait with minimal funds under managment than put up with finicky clients who would insist on constant monthly and/or even quarterly returns. You (or at least, I) can't invest that way. I need time for my investment theses to pan out. It takes months, some times several quarters for my "evil machinations" to come to fruition - but when they do pan out they usually more than compensate for the wait, even when adjusted for risks, drawdowns and downside volatility. Trying to make them work by the end of the month will just result in losses and a quest for luck. I can't afford to rely on luck.

Now, on to the article from Bloomberg.com

More than a dozen hedge funds have shut, frozen redemptions or needed to seek outside capital this year as markets tumbled. Peloton Partners LLP liquidated its largest fund after making wrong-way bets on mortgage securities, while JWM Partners LLC, the investment firm run by ex-Long-Term Capital Management LP chief John Meriwether, was hurt by swings in Japanese government bonds.

``Hedge funds have not covered themselves in any form of glory in this quarter,'' said Paul Ross, chief executive officer of London-based Iveagh Ltd., the investment arm for the Guinness family brewing fortune. ``They've been extremely difficult markets for hedge funds in general.'' 

Volatility Rises

Hedge funds are private, largely unregulated pools of capital whose managers can buy or sell any assets, bet on falling as well as rising asset prices and participate substantially in profits from money invested.

Strategies that should profit as stocks and bonds decline have also been hurt because of short-term rallies as the U.S. Federal Reserve takes steps to restore confidence after the decline in the U.S. subprime-mortgage market.

That means prices have been jumping around much more than usual. Daily changes of 1 percent or more in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the benchmark index for U.S. stocks, have occurred on 51 percent of trading days this year, according to S&P. The last time the percentage hovered at that level was in 1938.

The index jumped 3.6 percent today, the most in two weeks.

``Even if the view has been correct and negative, it's been very difficult in these markets to make money because the moves are violent and the rallies sharp,'' said Ross, who invests a large portion of Iveagh's $800 million in assets with hedge funds.